Saturday, May 02, 2015

Monsoon Watch -3... 2015 (Additional)...May 2nd 2015.

The arrival date is calculated seeing today's position.Further from today, we presume the normal rate of progress.This initial estimated dates are subject to some changes, and will be finalised around mid-May, when the puzzle pieces get better arranged.
(Dates in brackets are the normal dates of arrival).

As of today, there seems to be a slight delay in both, Arabian Sea and Bay Branches of the Monsoon. There continues to be a doubt on the timely arrival of the Monsoon in the Bay branch.

Arabian Sea Branch: Though there is some improvement in most of the parameters, there is still much to be achieved, and most parameters are still lagging behind time, and are
The Arabian Sea branch, now affected by the temporary "dis-organisation " in the equatorial winds at the equator, can recover provided the winds regroup fast.

On these calculations, Vagaries would still maintain the Monsoon to reach Maldives around the 24th of May 2015 (20th May), Sri Lanka around 26th/28th of May (25th May).
Kerala by the 3/4th June (1st June).
Hence, maintaining and presuming the normal rate of progress, Goa should get Monsoon rains by around 9th June (5th June). NE States can also see Monsoon resume around that date.
Mumbai by 13th/14th June (9th June). Pre Monsoon thundershowers could start from around 7th/8th June 2015.

Bay Branch: A Western Disturbance (M-1) will approach the Northern regions of the sub continent, and will gain strength by the 8th and 9th. Back to back, we may see M-2 around 12th May...if it happens, may lead to sufficiently delay the formations of any Low in the Bay.

Bay branch needs to wait a few days for the Easterly Wave trough just South of Sri Lanka to fizzle out, and the pulses from the East in the Bay to resume for Low formations. 

SWM should hit South Andaman Sea around 16th.May (12th May), and rest Andaman Islands by 18th-20th May 2015.
Genearlly moves up (normally) the Bay at a sustained speed, and Kolkata should see Monsoon arrival by the 9th/10th of June.

We stop at this initial progress, and work out further region wise progress at a later date  (as is the usual practise in Vagaries' MWs).

These Dates are worked out and estimated as per my personal calculations and may not be used for commercial purposes.The dates are not binding on anyone and no responsibility is taken if used for any purposes.

                                        End of Article

Mumbai Santa Cruz...Comparison of Temperatures/Heat Index...May and October...See Rohit's Page

1 comment:

Abhijit Modak said...

Great article Sir.. It's time to chase the SWM unfolding!

Hope this June don't turn the way like disastrous June 2014..