Thursday, July 11, 2013

On Friday, Mumbai was flooded, traffic snarled and trains were late...was it heavy rains,or mismanagement ? ...See Mumbai Page for Latest Update


Massive Rains in South Gujarat..See Flash Snippet

Weekend City Forecast: Friday 12th, Saturday 13th and Sunday 14th July
Mumbai:
Friday: Frequent Spells of showers with gusty winds, a few of them heavy. Monsoon cloudiness in the day. Rain
amount: 50-55 mms.
Saturday: Showers in day, a few heavy, and rain amount 25-30 mms.
Sunday: Showers will be inter parsed with bright spells. Rain amount: 20-25 mms.

Pune: Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy skies, with intermittent drizzling and light rains. Rain amount on Friday upto 15-20 mms, decreasing on Saturday/Sunday.

Surat: Intermittent showers on Friday. Rain may accumulate to 60 mms by Saturday morning. Monsoon weather.
Satursday cloudy with spells of rain, a few heavy in some parts. Rains upto 15-20 mms. Decrease on Sunday.

Delhi NCR: Friday/Saturday will be cloudy and some cloudiness increase in evenings. Rain in some parts on Friday/Saturday evening/night Upto 15 mms..
Sunday night sees a slight decrease in most parts, but, rains on Monday into the night will measure around 30-40 mms.

Hyderabad sees rains on Friday, some heavy showers, but decrease in precipitation from Saturday.

Kolkata: Good chances of "spot" thunder showers on Friday,Saturday and Sunday. Sunday can see the odd shower pop up in the evening.Rain amounts betwen 15-20 mms/day.
 

 Chennai: Partly cloudy and warm on all days till Monday. The odd shower popping up in some parts on Friday or Saturday, with around 7-10 mms/day.


Goa: Frequent showers throughout the day on Friday and Saturday. Daily rains will be around 60 mms on Friday and 35-40 mms on Saturday and Sunday.

1.BB-5 has established as a deep Low over Orissa as on Thursday evening.The system ,as a trough, is tilting SW with height.
The sea level low, will in all probibility fizzle out by Saturday, over Chattisgarh.

2. The upper air UAC, associated with the system will survive, and linger as an upper air trough in the MP region on Saturday and Sunday. The significant 700 hpa trough, in the MP/Chattisgarh region, is the region to pay attention on.

Friday: BB-5 moves W/NW.
Districts to watch for heavy rains will be Nagpur, Akola. In AP: Adilabad, Karimnagar and Nizamabad. In MP, Betul, Chundwara, Khandwa and Nimur

Saturday: Heavy Rains watch in Eastern Gujarat (all districts), and Indore district of MP. Udaipur in Rajasthan.




Sunday: Districts of Udaipur, Bilwara, Ajmer and Pali, and Southern regions of Uttarakhand, and Western Nepal, to watch out for heavy rains. Medium rains (20-40 mms) in Southern Haryana, adjoining Rajasthan, Delhi NCR and adjoining UP.



No rainfall from this system in Pakistan.

Mumbai will see occasional showers, a few heavy. Rain amount will be 30 mms on Friday, and reducing rains on Saturday and Sunday with 20-25 mms/day.
Outer Townships get heavier rains on Friday (50 mms), reducing to 35-40 mms on Saturday/Sunday.

Pictorial Weather of MP and Rajasthan by Rohit Aroskar on stats and Analysis Page

40 comments:

Vinod said...

Hello rajesh sir.
When can we expect a heavy rain spell of 200-300 mm in 24 hours time for mumbai.

rajesh said...

Vinod: Very difficult to answer this firmly. But not from this system as you can see in map and Mumbai forecast...but that can possibly happen when
1. System in Bay is strong. 2. Upper air trough runs thru Gujarat. 3. Vortex over Mumbai in off shore trough.

sset said...

I think we don't need any more
100x rains for Mumbai. Let other states benefit with equal distribution (standard normal distribution...) As Abhijit has pointed out navi Mumbai consistently received more rains this year - Panvel,Belapur,Airoli ..would have crossed 1500+mm. Crossing 2000mm is very much possible by july end. Belapur non stop rains for last 4 days always cold, dark and pouring.

Thanks Sam - wish your words were true--infact this was true 10years backs..last 10years monsoon currents have changed - may be due to environmental destruction (loss of trees, mining in southern India).Atleast these areas used to get normal, but now they don't even receive 50% of normal.

sam khan said...

SSET--We all from the vagaries family wish that our entire country get's bountiful rain's this year 2013. But again it is all in God's hands 'not in our hand's to decide whether Mumbai will get more rain's or not. not one of us can decide the route of the (DEPRESSION'S FROM THE BAY)as where it should track, whether interior karnataka or Maharashtra.all depend's on parameter's.

sam khan said...

By the way this year 2013 look's very wet for Mumbai should cross 3000mm by end of september.

sam khan said...

Extremely heavy rains started in Vasai for past 10 min's

Abhijit said...

Badlapur having non-stop heavy rain from last 3 days. So really enjoying it and giving an real feel of July rains. :)

Abhijit said...

Badlapur heavy rain clearly seen on Mumbai Radar in last 24 hrs Precipitation Accumulation data.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/pac_mum.gif

sam khan said...

very heavy rains with gusty winds for 1 hour in vasai

sam khan said...

heavy rain's still going on.

Abhijit said...

Pune records 16mm rain ending 8.30am today.

sam khan said...

looking at the current intensity of rains in Vasai ' Vasai might cross 70 mm rain in 24 hrs.

rohitaros said...

Sunshine account for Mumbai for past 4 days :

Diffused / part / any other sunshine - 0 hrs ( for past 4 days)




Dattaraj Joshi said...

Non-stop showers in Hyderabad during past 24hrs. It is 86mm according to IMD website.

paulodon said...

80 mm in thane so far and still pouring...

Vinod said...

Very heavy rains today in malad..since early morning..

Tremerin D'souza said...

Mira Road is going to become swimming pool in few hours.

Tremerin D'souza said...

Mira Road is going to become swimming pool in few hours.

Tremerin D'souza said...

Mira Road is going to become swimming pool in few hours.

sam khan said...

Vasai east is fully flooded , roads have submerged under water.

Abhijit said...

CHIEF AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN CMS Ending 8.30am today 12-07-2013 (minimum 5cm station in below list) : Courtesy IMD Ahmedabad

GUJARAT REGION : Valsad (dist Valsad)41, Pardi (dist Valsad) 31, Umbergam_arg (dist Valsad) 19, Daman (dist Daman) 18, Vapi (dist Valsad) 17, Silvassa (dist Dadara & Nagar Haveli) 17, Madhbun (dist Dadara & Nagar Haveli) 16, Kadi (dist Mehsana) 15, Umergam (dist Valsad) 15, Jetpur Pavi (dist Baroda) 14, Dharampur (dist Valsad) 13, Kaprada (dist Valsad) 13, Dangs (ahwa) (dist Dangs) 10, Jambughoda (dist Panchmahal) 9, Bayad (dist Sabarkantha) 9, Nanipalson (dist Valsad) 8, Gandevi_arg (dist Navsari) 8, Vadodara (dist Baroda) 8, Navsari (dist Navsari) 8, Chikhli_arg (dist Navsari) 7, Sanand (dist Ahmedabad) 7, Mahemdavad (dist Kheda) 7, Vansda (dist Navsari) 6, Vyara (dist Tapi) 6, Gandevi (dist Navsari) 6, Jalalpor (dist Navsari) 6, Deodar (dist Banaskantha) 5, Lunawada (dist Panchmahal) 5, Dhandhuka (dist Ahmedabad) 5, Mangrol (dist Surat) 5, Mahuva (dist Surat) 5, Modasa (dist Sabarkantha) 5

SAURASHTRA & KUTCH : Umrala (dist Bhavnagar) 11, Rajula_arg (dist Amreli) 11, Rajula (dist Amreli) 7, Vallabhipur (dist Bhavnagar) 7, Valbhipur_arg (dist Bhavnagar) 7, Jafrabad (dist Amreli) 6

Valsad exact figure is 412.0mm ending 8.30am today. Highest in whole Gujarat

sset said...

In just 1 day Gujarat enters into excess rain zone - valsad/surat-400mm+ in 24 hours...all lions of Borivili national park will be wondering what is happening??? Mumbai western Lakes will be overflowing multiple times...

Navi Mumbai incessant rains, all water from hills tumbling down..Kharghar Pandavkada displaying spectacular cascading water falls, overlooking dense forests,streams,golf course,central park, iskcon temple - like tourist spot (jog falls). Wednesday almost all navi Mumbai(belapur,vashi,nerul,airoli,panvel) places recorded rains 150-200mm in 24hours zero visibility for last 5 days.

By the way when will this rain end- and another BB6 starts its birth.... dumping 300-400mm rain...

sset said...

it is amazing place of origin BB5 (Orissa/North AP) does not get extreme rains but opposite west side gets dump of 200-300-400mm...
Maha chandrapur also received good dump of 200mm...

sset said...

Rajesh sir 1st time probably deviated from estimation - Mumbai 30mm -- but I think it should be 200mm ...(like june rains...)

Tremerin D'souza said...

Sam bhai Vasai(e) is completely drowned,my mom works at vasai(E) returned from vasai station itself @ 10am.

sam khan said...

right tremerin. and now it has turned dark again and pouring very heavily.

sam khan said...

Looks like Vasai rain amount might be around 100mm or even more, since morning.

Abhijit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Abhijit said...

Rainfall around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(12-07-2013)

Colaba 30.2mm
Santacruz 35.4mm
Vagaries 46.5mm
Vihar(Mumbai) 52.0mm
Tulshi(Mumbai) 64.0mm
Alibaugh 64.4mm
Uran 87mm
Panvel 71.4mm
Karjat 170.0mm
Vasai 87.0mm
Bhiwandi 130.0mm
Thane 68.0mm
Kalyan 93.0mm
Ulhasnagar108.8mm
Ambernath 97.6mm
Barvi(Badlapur) 157.0mm

sset said...

Today most vigorous areas are Northern MAHARASHTRA,Vidarbha,Konkan,south GUJ - apparently SW coast (KAR/KER) did not receive any measurable rain (in spite of trough)

Pounding like waterfalls in NAVI MUMBAI.

sset said...

Tulsi lake starts overflowing....God bless Mumbai...

rajesh said...

For Aurangabad Readers..Vagaries' Column

http://epaper.lokmat.com/lokmattimes/epapermain.aspx?queryed=78

rajesh said...

Page 2 in above Newspaper

rajesh said...

sset: my estimate was 50-55 mms...and the avg for Mumbai till 5.30 pm Friday is 46.9 clb and 95.8c Scruz ,avg 72 mms...aabout 20 mms more...thats allowed :-)

Atul Naik said...

Incessant rains in Goa today. Respite since late evening. Should be as per vagaries estimate, at least in Panjim. Valpoi at the base of western ghats crossed 2000 mm on July 11, ie yesterday.

sam khan said...

Rajesh, thanks for the rain figure's specially of Vasai, i was very sure about the rain total to be way above 100mm in Vasai' cause the way it was pouring here whole day specially between 8am-10am its was a terrible downpour.

sam khan said...

sorry ABOUT IT.( Rajesh sir) I FORGOT TO TYPE SIR.

sset said...

most of the places were in 120mm range. Vasai 133mm, navi Mumbai too was in 120mm range. After Tulsi lake, Modak Sagar may overflow.

About Valsad - good agricultural area known for chikoos, mangos (largest in Gujarat)-

sam khan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sam khan said...

King circle area in Central Mumbai got the highest rain's yesterday 125mm , second inline with Vasai 133mm.