Saturday, July 06, 2013

Where is this Place ? Any guesses ?..See Interactive Page

Talacauvery the fastest to cross 3000 mm in this SWM 2013..See Pradeep's Page Updated with Latest SWM Info.

Mumbai Lakes rainfall diagram graphics on Mumbai Page..and more on Stats and Analysis Page from Rohit Aroskar

If we refer to the forecast map of vagaries put up earlier for the 6th-8th July, we can get an idea if any changes are to be made in that.
Overall, I would keep the regions marked same, but just scale down the rainfall by about 15-20%..for all the regions shown.

Surely we see precipitation moving into Uttarakhand, and the adjoiing States of UP, Delhi NCR and parts of Haryana.

Heavy rains likely in Uttarakhand on Sunday and Monday, with the hilly regions getting 100 mms..
 

Delhi NCR sees an increase in rains from Saturday night thru Monday, with  around 15-20 mms /day (Saturday/Sunday) in the region and some areas getting up to 25-30 mms on Monday.

Kathmandu can receive heavy rains on Monday, and may add up to 30-40 mms..heavy rains likely in West and Central Nepal.
 

The West coast trough "revs up" a bit, to some extent, bringing rainfall between 20-40 mms in places on the coast and 40-60 mms inland in the Konkan. Overall a marginal increase over last few days.
 

Mumbai City sees more cloudy weather compared to Friday (which was bright), and passing showers on Saturday ( 15-20 mms) and Sunday 20-25 mms.
Outer townships see heavier shower spells, with the quantum around 25-45 mms/day, with the odd patch getting up to 50 mms.
Northern Suburbs and Townships (Vasai and surroundings) can get heavier rains on Saturday.


Passing light to medium showers for Surat, around 7-10 mms /day.
Pune will be partly cloudy and breezy (SW) with light showers in the afternoon/evenings insome parts of city..no substantial changes.
Coastal Karnataka and Goa see a slight increase over last few days also, though less marked than Konkan.

Some thunder showers and pockets of heavy precipitations over North AP, adjoining regions of Vidarbh and N.I.Karnataka.
Nagpur can get a heavy thunder shower by Monday evening..around 20-25 mms.

Warm for Kolkata next 3 days..only the chance of the odd shower "popping" up in a particular patch or part of city in the evening.
Good chance of a thunder shower on Saturday and Sunday night, but the chances decreasing and reducing after Sunday, and almost dry on Monday/Tuesday.

Southern regions of Pakistan may get medium rains. Sindh region, including Karachi  have the chances of rainfall increasing after Monday. The monsoon moves into the Sindh region after Monday..initially in Lower Sindh regions.

Karachi can get light showers from Sunday Night/Monday.
But, the rainfall is missing the Sukkur and Nawabshah cities. These will, unfortunately, remain dry and hot..around 42c.

Islamabad remains warm and partly cloudy with day temperatures around 36c.

Please be free to ask specific region weather if required..

43 comments:

shani1974 said...

Dear Rajesh ,
i just want to ask you about your prediction about the karachi in which you said that some rain might be happened on sunday/monday . i only ask when karachi get frequent heavy showers of monsoon ? as you say that monsoon advancing in karachi on 12 th july it means some meaningfull rain can occur on 14th to 16th july as shown on a lot of weather sites and please also clear that these rains are dure to the low pressure developing in BOB .
Thanks & Regards,
Zeeshan.

SVT said...

Where the hell Mumbai rain has gone? Hardly any rain last few days. July is suppose to be wettest month. Rajesh, when will we get Typical July Heavy Rain?

sam khan said...

Looks like mumbai's wet weather will be back soon somwhere next week.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

please forecast for sambalpur. till now we didnt have any meaningful rain. i think till now we got less than half of normal rain. the situation is going to be very critical here...

Atul Naik said...

Goa rains: since today morning, substantially heavier than last few days.

Nagpur Star said...

Had a sharp shower just now in Nagpur for last 10 mins.
Amit

emkay said...

Think today we can announce the whole country has been covered by SWM.

Abhijit said...

As was expected some increase in Rainfall activity seen in Konkan & Goa belt.

Ratnagiri recorded 61mm rain till 8.30pm today

Honavar recorded 59mm rain till 8.30pm today

Panji recorded 51mm rain till 8.30pm today for past 12hrs.

rajesh said...

Zeeshan: Monsoon will remain weak initially in Karachi, even after advancing. The advance parameters are weak, and we will see an increase in rains for KHI after the Bay low takes course.

emkay: has it not advanced on 30th June ?Or you are going into finer details and talking abt the small extreme Western patch ?
We shall advance in 2 days after it moves into Pakistan.

Nilesh: I understand your point of view..but i think we will wait for BB-5, as it comes, we see its course..maybe late next week ?

Atul: yes, have put up Saturday figures in Flash Snippets..west goes "revs up" as expected :-)

rajesh said...

sam: yes, we were expecting good rains there today..(vasai)

emkay said...

Rajesh, I am using knowledge gained in meeting and don't intend to secede part of Rajasthan to Pakistan, haha.

Neeraj said...

Kathmandu has been cloudy and rainy from friday night into saturday and this sunday morning. But the total rainfall has been around 20 mm only starting from friday night. Its more cloudy than rainy.

sam khan said...

looks like konkan coast including Mumbai is instore for wet weather this week

rajesh said...

sam: Rainfall till today moring:
Virar: 205 mms
vasai 31 mms, Mandavi 96 mms, Agashi 95 mms,

Abhijit said...

Vasai & Virar just 8kms away and what a amazing difference in rainfall !!

Atul Naik said...

On the Interactive Page, a beautiful panorama from Mars!

Atul Naik said...

Rajeshbhai: A small correction in the flash snippets. The rains recorded at Panjim at 51 .3 mm on Saturday were for 9 hrs period from 8.30 am to 5.30 pm, and not 12 hrs period. This was matched today with a recorded rain of 45.8 mm for 9 hrs period till 5.30 pm!

Nilesh Ladhad said...

today hot and humid. No rain since last 72 hours.

rajesh said...

Atul: before putting I had checked the 8.30 pm figure , which also showed 51 mms...it was not a mistake..at least the 8.30 pm also showed 51 mms..

rajesh said...

Atul: Panjim today also recorded 52 mms till 8.30 pm (Sunday)

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir, woooping, what a huge difference between vasai and virar rain figures

sam khan said...

I swear Abhijit , really small distance big difference in rain figures.

Abhijit said...

@ Sam. Also see Vihar & Tulshi lake in Mumbai which are just 5kms away but total rain difference is more than 750mm between them ! So rainfall differs in every 2kms distance !!

Atul Naik said...

Rajeshbhai: Yes you are right. Checked the AWS data for yesterday and today. My comment was based on their Press release! Sorry for the confusion!

rajesh said...

Atul: vagaries genrally gives figures when abs sure...source is always checked before commitment..thats why it is trusted :-)

Abhish said...

Rajesh sir, Pune and many portions of Madhya Maharashtra not getting enough rains. It's barely rained in Pune. Any chances rest of July might be better?

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir ,
The rain intensity in Mumbai and surrounding , is it going to increase this week, looks though.what do you say sir?

sam khan said...

Looks like intense rains are approaching Mumbai and entire konkan belt.

emkay said...

Seems the trough has rapidly descended back to receive BB-5 !! The 200hpa discontinuity responsible for Himachal/Punjab rains ?? So breakmonsoon has gone for a toss :)) This year is indeed quite a challenge.

sam khan said...

heavy rains continuing in vasai and surrounding

Vinod said...

Hi rajesh sir,

It is raining since morning here in mumbai.

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir, and Abhijit,
the rains that occured in Virar on saturday night onwards, 200 mm overall' were so intense , that one of my friend who stays in Virar s informed me that the road's in his area which never floods, were flooded.the rains were so intense. and looks like similar situation as though' it will continue this week.
















Abhijit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
k.p said...

sir when are the rains going to ease down in mumbai.or is it going to be so heavy whole day.sir what are your peridictions for monday, tuesday n wednesday

k.p said...

sir when are the rains going to ease down in mumbai.or is it going to be so heavy whole day.sir what are your peridictions for monday, tuesday n wednesday

Abhijit said...

No rain in Badlapur yet. And surface breeze is from ENE from early morning till now.

sam khan said...

extremely heavy rains started here in Vasai for past 10 mins

Abhijit said...

@ Sam. Vasai recorded 56mm ending 8.30am today. But on other hand Kalyan 5mm, Thane 3mm in same period.

Also again see variation Ulhasnagar & Ambernath are just 3kms away.
But Ambernath records 26mm & Ulhasnagar 3mm ending 8.30am today.

Abhijit said...

Santacruz is almost bypass as just 3mm rain there from 8.30am to 11.30am today for last 3hrs.

And 7mm ending 8.30am today for last 24hrs.

emkay said...

Seeing the reports of highly varied rainfall within Mumbai & suburbs - think its quite natural when it is just the offshore trough which is dictating the precipitation for want of any organised system in the vicinity.

rajesh said...

Vagaries recorded 64.1 mms till 8.30 am Monday.

Emkay: your assumption is correct..and as predicted by vagaries on 4th, we should be seeing BB-5, a day here and there of the date predicted.

kp: Shall put up forecast and explanation tonite..

sam: thanks for the feedback..shall put up analysis of weather tonite..

rajesh said...

See Vagaries' report on Aurangabad and Akola on Page 2
http://epaper.lokmat.com/lokmattimes/epapermain.aspx?queryed=78

sam khan said...

RAINS HAVE STOPPED FINALLY IN VASAI