Tuesday, July 30, 2013

BB-8 Report as on 31st Wednesday Night:

BB-8 moves Westwards as forecasted yesterday. Positioned over Eastern MP, it has considerable clouding fuelled by very strong Westerlies , in the SW quadrant.
The heavy rainfall, which has occured, is occuring and will occur tomorrow, has not diverted from our estimate.
System expected to contine moving West, and weakening to 996 mb. 

Thursday: Districts of Aurangabad and Nasik watch out for heavy rains, and Surat, Bharuch and Navsari districts on Thursday evening. Rains >100 mms. Pockets get >150 mms.

Friday: Districts of Rajkot, Surendranagar and Jamnagar will receive heavy rains. Rest pf Gujarat too receive moderate rains. 125-150 mms in some pockets.
Eastern parts of Mahrashtra start getting reduced rains.

Cloudiness and patchy thunder showers may creep into Sindh on Friday/Saturday. More details as situation develops.

Maintaining Mumbai Forecast of rains from Wednesday night. Around 50 mms on Thursday and reducing from night.

x-------------------------------------------x---------------------------------------------x---------------------------------x Thane District Rainfall Diagram from Rohit Aroskar and Table from Puneet Bangera...See Mumbai Page:

Super Pic of Kolkata Sunset by Santosh Subramanian...Interactive Page
x------------------------------------------x-------------------------------------------x------------------------------------x BB-8 Report as on 30th Tuesday Night:

BB-8, slightly deepened at 992 mb, now centred as a depression at 22N and 85E. System is expected to move Westwards.The associated Upper Air circulations extend upto 700 mb. 
The associated clouding is in the W/SW quadrant. The region of heavy effective rainfall currrently includes S.Chattisgarh and adjoining Vidarbh.

Wednesday, heavy rainfall moves westwards into Vidarbh and adjoining Marathwada. Very heavy rains are possible over Chattisgarh, Eastern Vidarbh and spreading into Marathwada. 

Thursday, heavy rainfall over Marathwada and North Madhya Maharashtra and adjoing Southern MP.Districts to look out for heavy rainfall Nasik, Dhule, Jalgaon, Buldana and Akola.Rain amounts upto >100 mms expected.
Heavy rains also likely in Aurangabad district.
Eastern Gujarat districts of  Dang, Tapi, Vadodara can expect heavy rains. Moderately heavy rains in Bharuch and Surat Districts. 50-60 mms expected in Surat and Vadodara.

Heavy rains may increase over North Konkan and Mumbai from Wednesday night. Rain amounts increasing to about 60-65 mms on Wednesday night thru Thursday daytime.

31 st July Mumbai Readings on Page by Abhijit Modak and Lake Levels from Jayesh Mehta

26 comments:

Tarim Khan said...

Mr. Rajesh will this system affect Sindh ?

rajesh said...

Tarim Khan: Since it is a depression,and not a low, and the seasonal low over Balochstan has deepened consideably to 986 mb, I have not mentioned the customary fizzling out of the system soon. But, expect a westward movement over Gujarat and Sindh Thursday/Friday..updates will follow

Tarim Khan said...

Thank you.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

so rain has passed through sambalpur

emkay said...

What to look out for is rate of movement, if slow it is certain to gain moisture from inland wetbodies and retain strength. So the good part is that area around nashik may get good precipitation along with Mumbai catchment area.

kiran malhotra said...

Rajesh sir,
is mumbai going to face wet weather tommorow.

rajesh said...

kiran: Yes, i feel so from Wednesday night, till mid day at least...heavy showers.

Abhijit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Abhijit said...

Rainfall around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(31-07-2013)

Colaba 9.0mm
Santacruz 31.0mm
Vagaries 26.0mm
Vihar(Mumbai) 40.0mm
Tulshi(Mumbai) 40.0mm
Alibaugh 7.0mm
Uran 20.0mm
Panvel 21.6mm
Karjat 77.7mm
Khalapur 25.0mm
Vasai 12.0mm
Thane 29.2mm
Bhivandi 35.0mm
Murbad 37.0mm
Shahapur 44.2mm
Kalyan 38.0mm
Ulhasnagar 46.2mm
Ambernath 40.8mm
Barvi(Badlapur) 77.0mm

rajesh said...

Lokmat Times ..Page 3..Marathwada and Vidharbh Heavy Rains expected

http://epaper.lokmat.com/lokmattimes/epapermain.aspx?queryed=78

Nimish Thaker said...

The latest image on the lightning map seems to suggest a rapid WNW movement of BB8. The area East of BB8 seems to be cloud free and hence Bihar, Orrisa, WB, Jharkhand appear to be cloud free.

emkay said...

What is interesting will all the BBs this year is that W-SW quadrant carries the rainbearing clouds & UAC associated with BB. Therefore though we talk of the BB moving in the trough-axis , the rains are being precipitated south-southwest of it.

rajesh said...

Typical example of what was described by me in our meeting (video on apperant movement of clouds from east) from Mumbai point of view. Happening now !

Nilesh Ladhad said...

when will it rain again in sambalpur. today few light passing drizle gradualy decreasing by evening.

SVT said...

Mumbai might get over 100 mm rain in next 36 hours. After that it could be relatively dry for atleast week or so.

rohitaros said...

Mumbai SCZ (Airport) July 2013 average temp : 29.2 c /23.8 c ..
July 2013 rainfall : 95.6 cms ( -7.5 cms)..

Total SW monsoon rainfall till now ( 1 Jun - 31 Jul 2013 ) : 198.6 cms ( +38 cms....+24 % )

Dattaraj Joshi said...

Hyderabad received light showers thoughout day today.

sset said...

IMD Chennai region website- all most all regions of TN are showing deficient rain(-ve). Summer like temperatures. Madurai - hottest with unbearable 40 degrees!!!
Places like Pamban,Trichendur,. 1mm of rain since june 01.

2013 SWM must be highest rain recorded in Vidarbha, as places are receiving rain in multiples of 200x or 300x

Also wondering how can separation of AP with Rayalseema as separate state would work? Rayalseema is Indias driest place - can it support capital infrastructure with no water? Till now APs only saving grace was Telangana - water from MAHARASHTRA Krishna/Godavari or rain from Orissa BB depression.

sset said...

Just wondering kind of rains Brahmapuri (vidarbha) is receiving everytime 100x or 200x, now total stands 1500mm since june, with another few spells will it overtake Mumbai??? What makes this hotspot region in 2013 SWM - this is first entry point into MAHA from BAY...

kiran malhotra said...

Rajesh sir, when is the next depression likely to form in the bay (BB'9).Nagpur is being benefited by all the depressions entering in from the bay.

Vinod said...

Rajesh sir,
How is that we all get good rains whenever Low forms..but the places like mahableshwar,matheran,lonavala and other ghat areas like tamini, they continuously get rainfall..everyday that too150 mm or more..

Vinod said...

Rajesh sir,
How is that we all get good rains whenever Low forms..but the places like mahableshwar,matheran,lonavala and other ghat areas like tamini, they continuously get rainfall..everyday that too150 mm or more..

rajesh said...

Vinod: Naturally, these are on the windward side, attracting maximum moisture and rising moist winds, condensing on very low dew point and saturation point.

Kiran: Cant commit now, but next low from Bay likely around 8th Aug..

Abhijit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Abhijit said...

Rainfall around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(01-08-2013)

Santacruz 4.4mm
Colaba 6.6mm
vagaries 2.0mm
Vihar(Mumbai) 11.0mm
Tulshi(Mumbai) 20.0mm
Alibaugh 13.0mm
Uran 9.0mm
Panvel 21.6mm
Karjat 22.9mm
Khalapur 33.0mm
Vasai 6.0mm
Thane 20.0mm
Bhivandi 13.0mm
Murbad 16.0mm
Shahapur 29.2mm
Kalyan 9.0mm
Ulhasnagar 17.6mm
Ambernath 17.4mm
Barvi(Badlapur) 34.0mm

Abhijit said...

Mumbai SCZ recorded 13mm rain till 11.30am today. So crosses 2000mm mark for this SWM with 2003mm rain from 01-06-2013 till 11.30am today(01-08-2013).