Thursday, October 13, 2011

Thursday's rain till 6 pm: Mumbai Chembur 42 mms, Colaba 0.7 mms, Santa Cruz 12 mms. Strong downdraft from cloud tops brought the temperature at S'Cruz which was 33c at 3.15 pm, to 24c at 5.15 pm.
Currently, at 7 pm, cloud top heights stand at less than 15 kms, and with reduced growing tendencies.

More rainfall figures from Thursday's rain: Bhira 40 mms, Mulde (Sindhudurg) 18 mms, Thane 8 mms. Temperature dropped from a high of 33c to 24c by 5 pm, in Thane, after a squall brought in cold breeze at ground level.

Wednesday's storms precipitated good rains in the Mumbai lakes. Tulsi (overflowing) saw 86 mms of rain, Vihar (93% full) got 56 mms.Lonavala's Walwand dam (73%) got 64 mms and Barvi (overflowing) in Thane got 30 mms.



Latest Thunderhead sat. pic over Mumbai taken at 5.35 pm Thursday.Compare with yesterday's same time pic.



Huge thundercells rolling in from the East and SE today.
Depth of clouds may be a bit less, but downdraft intensity at core seems heavy. Reaching over 18 kms, and with multi layer..sure to produce severe lightning.
Base a bit narrow, so could last less than yesterday..maybe rain off in 3 hrs.



18 comments:

NT said...

The Lightning map (my favourite) shows Thunderstorms formed in a Geometric manner across the Country. There is a line f storms right from Kerala to Mumbai hugging the coast all along. There is a second line of Storms from Mumbai (yup Mumbai is the chosen one) to South of Kolkatta. There is absolutely no cloud above this East - West Thunder line, there are only 1-2 storms below this line.

rajesh said...

NT: good observations. The line along the coast is the line of CB clouds as they are formed just inland, and drifting towards the coast. They will not penetrate in the sea at all.Even here, u will notice the sea clear around sun set time.
Like i said, inland activity is less today, and the cb clouds are seen to the east of Mumbai due to thermals hitting the wind shear and divergence (changing season) explained in the Mumbai note.
These are my views and could be corrected.

NT said...

Rajeshbhai, your initial assessment about the storms not being broad today was spot on, the latest Doppler image shows the activity to be winding down at this point. I think baring the odd rumble of thunder and some sporadic showers the show for tonight seems to be reaching for the curtains. The activity in the Juhu - Andheri area was I would say 20% of yesterday, just nothing today, one would hardly call this a 'storm', readers from other areas however seem to have reported of more violent happenings.

Another observation: The temperature has dropped from 33 degrees to 24 degrees in a matter of 2 - 3 hours as indicated by Mumbai Airport readings displayed on the NOAA site!! An incredible fall of 9 degrees!! If this is true, people complaining about the heat have a reason to rejoice :-)

sridhar said...

NT: what is this lightning map you are referring to..??:)

NT said...

@Sridhar, check this out, I am referring to this map ...
http://webflash.ess.washington.edu/L_plot_weather_map.flash4.jpg

sridhar said...

NT: Thanks

NT said...

http://
webflash.ess.washington.edu
/L_plot_weather_map

junaid said...

@NT ,,,the storms wich panvel experienced today was definitely greater in strenght than yesterday's ,,,panvel received 2 cm yestrday ( considerably less than mumbai) but in todays storm quite squally conditions accompanied with very heavy rain rate were experienced at pnvel.....rajesh i have one query u called this rain as post monsoon,,, can we term it as an effect of north east monsoon?,.,

rajesh said...

junaid:Unconfirmed reports tell of 24 mms at Panvel today. But will check again.
How can this be NE monsoon junaid, when SWM is still prevailing in South Mah. and downwards ?
A complete withdrawal is awaited.

Anonymous said...

@rajesh bhai will it rain today ie on friday.personally i feel that it will rain.

rajesh said...

anonymous:Dark clouds, more of cirrus types today, will gater in the E and SE of Mumbai. Will approach the city by 6 pm. Lighter rainfall today.
Refer forecast till Saturday put up yesterday.

NT said...

cVery muted Thunderstorm activity today as per the Doppler as compared to yesterday. Infact just one cell right now around 180 KMS NE of Mumbai nothing in the ghat regions at all as of now.

Anonymous said...

chableheat index of 44C in mumbai!!!
temp 33c
dewpoint 27C
humidity 71%

sridhar said...

bad...Mahabaleshwar, raigad... stretch looks bad..streaks of thundercell seen across this region.. could head towards mumbai late evening....

Anonymous said...

Bad? You say 'bad' Sridhar? I thought a lot of folks reading the blog were clamouring for Thundershowers!! Those elusive farewell showers that we didn't get, now that they are here you say bad? Shouldn't we be saying 'bring em on'?

NT said...

@Junaid, I absolutely believe that the storms that hit Panvel y'day would have been nastier as compared to Wednesday. My comment about the storm being very benign yesterday was limited to the Andheri - Juhu area only. Compare the rain figures - 71 mms on Wednesday and 12 mms yesterday. Thunder and Lightning activity was also very less yesterday. However the lightning activity towards the North of this area was really nasty with a person getting killed in Lightning strike at Kandivali (East).

The latest Doppler shows a string of storms from Satara to Mahabaleshwar and beyond as rightly pointed out by Sridhar, however I personally don't think this storm system can make it's way into Mumbai. Let's wait and watch what happens though.

rajesh said...

Right on schedule, Dark clouds covered up at around 6 pm, and mixture of cirrus and alto nimbus..lightning with the expected light rains.A few areas had a sharp shower.Upper atmosphere scanty today..

sridhar said...

Rajesh: i read your your analsyis on why mumbai eventualy got that elusive thunderstorm, Rajesh, even earlier all the maps did show mumbai region being susceptible to withdrawing thunder showers, but your stand was steadfast that mumbai will be miss it this time around, so on hindsight, what made it happen, besides the massive thunder cell which you spoke about, did the prevailing UAC down south provided the impetus to evnvelope mumbai region too in the withdrawing thundershowers???, and delay the complete withdrawal from mumbai..