Thursday, October 06, 2011
Thursday's Maximum Day temperature range.
Latest 00Z Saturday 850 mb GFS shows the upper air anti-cyclone completely dominating NW and Central India. And in the bargain wiping out a feeble attempt made by the SWM to survive over N. Madhya mahrashtra and North Konkan in the form of a UAC in the East Arabian Sea. Though the UAC has brought some rains today (Thursday) to the coast South of Alibag, and some interiors along the coast.
In addition, a sliding down of dry air can be seen from this IMD humidity map.
Besides the usual wind charts, another condition as per IMD for withdrawal, is that the region should not get rain (more than 2.5 mms) for at least 3 days at a stretch.(Mumbai had 4 mms on Wednessday).
With the UAC getting obliterated by Saturday, the SWM retreat path is clear for Mumbai.
A W.D. is approaching the Kashmir region from the west and should bring precipitation to the region on Friday/Saturday.
Posted 29th Afternoon: Delhi South west Monsoon Withdrawal phase started....complete by 30th.....Dry and hot weather next 4/5 days with da...