Friday, October 21, 2011

1. As per Vagaries, 700 hpa and 850 hpa winds,and 200 hpa winds indicate withdrawal of SWM from South Maharashtra, Karnataka and Northern T.N. 
SWM withdrawal from T.N. and Kerala will be replaced by NEM onset  in these states around 24th.

2. Vagaries October Forecast mentioned specifically 4 cities night temperatures dropping to below 15c after the 20th. Well, it seems the drop has started. Last night's low was 15c in Nasik, 17c in Pune, 18c in Aurangabad and 19c in Delhi (Delhi was 17c yesterday). Further fall in nights in most interior cities expected.

3.Weak W.D. expected to precipitate some rain/snow in Kashmir and H.P. Also Central Nepal could expect rain today.



3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh,

will you put up a detailed forecast fro NEM, i guess during la nina years NEM tends to be weak and average . is it true ?

Some Global warming news for your eyes
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/10/climate-change

Regards, Ananth

sset said...

in fact 2009 was el-nino, but NEM continues to remain week, 2010 was la-nina - NEM was also weak. It is difficult to forcast ends in speculation

rajesh said...

Ananth/sset: Will put up a note on NEM on Saturday evening.
Going thru various factors like MJO and La-Nina.
Seeing the SWM moving Southwards fast now.200 jet streams taking a fast change of directions, still not organised though.
sset: i agree it is difficult to forecst with this years unstable indicators.