In the October forecast put up (link available on the right side of this page), we had mentioned that the NEM would set in around the 16th, and as weak MJO is expected till the 22nd, the monsoon would remain subdued.
However, the weak MJO has stalled the NEM conditions from advancing, and prevented any systems from forming in the Southern Bay.
Even, BB-9 actually took a route normally familiar to SWM days.
Now, after the NE winds get re-organised in the Bay, a fresh low will form in the Southern Bay around the 24th of October, (mentioned in the 18th blog).
With the reversal of winds, the SWM will withdraw and the NEM will set in in the Southern Peninsula by the 24th.
A weak W.D.is expected to cross the Northern states of Kashmir and H.P. in the week end. Can expect snowfall in the mid hills of Kashmir.
Shower or two expected in Central Nepal and Kathmandu on Friday. Night temperature to rise a bit on Friday/Saturday.
Mumbai had a high of 33.7c on Thursday. Friday will be hot, with the day rising to 35c.