Wednesday, October 26, 2011


Mumbai/Pune Forecast for next 3 days on Mumbai Page.

Some were asking me about the vagaries' predicted system (around 20th) in the Arabian Sea ?
Well, it seems, its here ! 95A forms in the South Arabian Sea ! Currently at 1006 mb, AS-2 has an extended trough towards the west coast if India. Its rain effect, already seen over the Karnataka and Goa coast, will be seen along the Karnataka coast and Goa on Wednesday and Thursday, and moving into South Konkan by Thursday.
GFS and a few International models show AS-2 going upto depression strength and moving NW towards Oman. If it moves away, precipitation along the coast will decrease.



8 comments:

sset said...

First onset of NE monsoon did not bring any significant rain. It seems western counterpart - SWM, Arbian sea is more active. Today 0we see clear at east cost- Bay - so TN,Rayalseema may not receive much awaited continous rains.

It is quite unusual for Arabian sea to become active- "churn the whirl" during oct/nov/dec. But we are observing this for past 3-5years. Usually they take away much clouds from east bay and this results in less rain over southeast India/Sri Lanka. Usual tragectory will be Arbian sea low form in south Arbian sea - intensifies as depression - NE/NW - India - Maharashtra/Gujrat/Pak/oman or hits Africa.

Rajesh sir has already given "Oman"

Rajesh in earlier blog has given very good technical explaination about NE monsoon- Thanks for this.

For current water crisis to tide away, south India needs atleast 2 months of heavy rain. Need to see how long NEM can sustain??? Signals of Western disturbances and early winters which can bring temperatures of bay down?

We all wish south India bountiful rain with Gods blessing this Diwali. May entire country rich/poor prosper.

Viravanalluran said...

Dear SSET,
You are correct in your premonition. That Arabian Sea branch of SWM is stubborn and stronger than to its counter part in the Bay. This NEM is also a sort of retreat SWM only. The AS branch of SWM could face NE winds and these two opposite winds trigger cloud formation.
Further as Rajesh pointed out the strength of mid tropospheric anticyclone blowing towards west from East in the Bay is becoming westerly blowing from west in AS to Bay in East at higher latitude
Since SWM Bay branch was weak through out the season, the probability of formation of depression will be lesser.

NT said...

Wishing Rajeshbhai and all the readers of Vagaries a very Happy Diwali and a prosperous new year ahead.

NT said...

I was in Kopargaon (Ahmednagar District, Maharashtra) last few days, boy was it cold there!! Brr. It was great fun (for some one who is from Mumbai and sees only either the hot weather or rains) sitting around the fire post dinner, having hot soups and getting the wollens out of the moth balled covers.

Back to Mumbai now and already I am seeing discussions around Rains and higher humidity and all that!!

junaid said...

@NT i can very well understand ur feelings ,,,,i have lived most of mah life in Riyadh saudi arabia,,,,,in winters temps cud even drop to -2 C ,,,,i misses the winters,, true winters ,,,,the weather in mumbai even during january is warm,,,and even hot sumtyms,,,,,what is miss of winters of riyadh is the low day time temp,,,the pleasant 20-25 C sunshine during the day,,,

nr said...

Great! Rajesh your forecast, given on 1st of Oct. of the system in the A. Sea is finally taking shape... What direction will it go?

sridhar said...

Rajesh: now you got to tell us what was the calculation based on which you predicted this depression 15 days back..:)

sset said...

Arbaian sea shows 2 massive lows with likely churns and hidden "eye". They are queued up one after another just like an airplanes on runway waiting for signal!!!!

low1 is between 10-15 degree latitude
low2 is below -5 degree latitude

Bay has cleared- hope low forms here for we require more rains this is just start.