Friday, July 17, 2009

The prevailing ‘low’, by now, I feel, has become insignificant. and died out over west Madhya Pradesh.
The upper air circulation over Gujarat was almost stationary,and will also fizzle out after moving westwards. Today, (Friday) it has precipitated good rains in Kutch.
These two systems have been, dumping some exceptionally heavy showers in Gujarat/Konkan, as mentioned yesterday. 60 cm in Mangrol; 50 cm in Veraval; and 44 cm each in Porbandar and Dahanu.
The off shore trough would continue to be a bit effective, for at least 3/4 days, and rains of moderate intensity will continue along the coast.
The forcast of a new low forming in the bay , is still valid, and could be expected around the 19th.( Sunday). And the ‘low’ is also being forecast to track west, along the same direction as the prevailing one, and confine showers to the same regions, east and central India. Of-course, west coast will also benefit.
But I would not jump to a conclusion of its tracking direction yet. We'll wait till its formed, and observe the monsoon axis direction on that day. In fact its direction is very important, as therain hungry north-west region could be a big reciever of precipitation from the system.
Not only the tracking direction, I would not bet on the formation day too, in fact I feel it could be a day early.
Weekend means some good rains, lessening though, in Kutch and south Rajasthan. Some showers in W.Bengal, due to the eastern end trough line curving, some rain in Maharashtra, and central India, but scanty rain in north-west India.
For Mumbai: The weekend will be interspersed by passing showers. Not very prolonged, but a few could be heavy. Since the showers may not be too prolonged, they may be punctuated in between by sunny intervals. Average rain /day may not exceed 20 mms /day. Should not be much of a hindrance.
Holidays to Lonavala and ghat regions could be wet at times with prolonged heavy rain showers. Around 50-70 mms of rain can be expected in the ghat areas.



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