Tuesday, July 14, 2009

The much awaited, much forecasted and much needed low in the bay has finally formed. That too a dya ahead of the predicted date.The first system to form in the bay after 'Aila", the cyclone.

Today, 14th. evening, the system was as a well marked low pressure area over coastal areas of Orissa and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal.

Now, quite unexpectedly, I admit, strong winds from the Arabian Sea got pulled towards the system and brought moisture, and heavy rain to Mumbai, and to many a regions of interior Maharashtra. The attached streamline map shows the winds directed towards the low. Normally, these winds would start when a system, specially a depression, crosses the east coast and travels inland.

Mumbai had heavy rains on Monday (120 mm in Colaba and 150 mm at S'cruz).On Tuesday, in 9hrs ending 5.30, Colaba recieved 44 mm while S,cruz got 166 mms ! Several other stations in Maharashtra too recieved heavy rains on Monday. Dharavi recorded 350 mms, Bhira got 166 mms and Koyna recieved 220 mms. In Chattisgarh, Arang got 340 mms, Raipur had 275 mms.

Now, with the inward movement of the system all of Maharashtra, M.P. and then Gujarat can start recieveing rains. For, if the system moves north-west, the parched regions of north-west India can get the much required rainfall.

On Wednessday, I feel mumbai should get around 75 mms of rain with rain intensity increasing in the night.

Like mentioned previously, the Arabian Sea low prospects have diminished.


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