This is the position of the monsoon deficiency as on 8th. July. Much is being talked about the poor rainfall, and the scanty conditions Surely is a cause for concern.
I reproduce a paragraph from my prevoius blog, just to continue from there-:" But for north Konkan, and Mumbai,the inflow of substantial moisture bearing rain clouds could start "rushing into" the coastal regions from Wednessday evening itself. Heavy rains could once again start in from Wednesday /Thursday , and could, as a result of the system moving westwards,continue for the next 4/5 days.." Holds true today also. The land based low has moved west from Jharkhand, and the rains in the mentioned regions have commenced. The IMD streamline map (of 10th.) shows the monsoon trough also sliding south. The trough is now the "line" joining the 3 lows from Sindh to south rajasthan to West Bengal. And aptly demonstrated by the easterlies above the trough.
Now as discussed, these easterlies must bring in the moisture to the northern belt. But, only after the 2nd. projected low forms in the bay around the 12th. Now, 2 lows are awaited. 1 in the bay, and 1 in the northern Arabian Sea. Both predicted to appear around the 12th. On this happening, the full course of the rain path mentioned my blog dated 7th. could materialise.
Only one important change has occured (not occured). The Arabian Sea low may not become into a deprssion and head towards Oman as mentioned and projected.
Due to this heatwave, isolated pockets in Gujarat recieved extremely heavy convective rains in the week. Unofficial reports from Bharuch mention of 82 mms of rain in 55 minutes on the 2nd, with a wind speed of 120 Kmph ! Baroda got 110 mms in 1 hr. 30 mins with strong gusty winds.