Tuesday, June 02, 2020

Posted 1 pm IST Tuesday 2nd June:

AS-1...A deep depression located at  15.3 N and 71.2 E..with estimated winds at 55-65 kmph and estimates core pressure at 1000 mb...Now 280 kms W off Panaji and 450 kms SSW off Mumbai...
The Upper Air Divergenceand Shear is shown..thus we estimate the strength and track..as a cyclone briefly just before landfall on 3rd evening...



Mumbai; As per Vagaries' estimate, the system is still not developed as a cyclone. The system will pass Mumbai along the coast, and the outer periphery of the circular movement, very close to the centre,  will touch Mumbai. The cyclone will form by tomorrow very near the coast near Palghar, Maharshtra coast.
The city will get moderate showers from Tuesday, with squally winds by evening (approx 50 mms). On Wednesday, there will be sharp heavy showers (75-90 mms) and very windy. Direct cyclonic winds will be North of Mumbai.

Pune: Raining on Tuesday and Wednesday with squally winds.


Rainfall decreases in Mumbai and Pune from Thursday.

6 comments:

Prasad said...

In Pune very light drizzles since yesterday.No heavy rain.

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,
When was last maharashtra had to face cyclone.

Rajesh said...

Vinod: Can you please refer to Mumbai Page in Vagaries Extreme Blog ? Still if you have doubts be free to ask.

sset said...

Guess most recent cyclone was 2009 cyclone Phyan.
Mumbai Maharashtra gets extreme rains from AS / Bay lows depressions rather than cyclone- In fact quantum of rains is more than cyclone produces - Mumbai / Maharashtra is used to 400mm - 600mm in 24hrs rain (every SWM konkan and ghat areas receive such extreme rains multiple days continuous)

Kaustubh said...

Sir what will be the estimated wind speed in Mumbai region maximum according to you

emkay said...

The Vagaries Extreme blog is a broken link. Please check the URL.

Posted 12 Noon 3rd July Friday: On Friday 3rd, Heavy Rains lash South and Central Mumbai; Rainfall till 8.30 am: Colaba 58 mms, Scruz 1...