Wednesday, June 24, 2020

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Increased Warming in Latest Generation of Climate Models Likely caused by Clouds..



Northwestern Maharashtra ghats rainfall performance till 24 June 2020: in mms.. Compiled by Vagarian Abhijit Modak

Igatpuri 616
Malshej 472
Ahupe 431
Bhimashankar 381
Matheran 629
Khandala 483
Lonavla 543
Lavasa 512
Bhira 663
Davdi 733
Tamhini 920
Shirgaon, Tamhini 1000
Mahabaleshwar 700

Posted Wednesday 24th June 1 PM IST:

Currently Vagaries estimate the Monsoon Axis line as shown, with Monsoon advance indications :

Expected to Move Northwards ...Creating the Initial "Break Monsoon" Condition.

Heavy rains with local flooding expected in Bihar and Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.
 NE states will get good rainfall next 4 days. Cherrapunji recorded 356 mms in 24 hrs ended today, totaling to 1559 mms for the season...and more expected now.

Outlook for 24th/25th/26th/27th June:
Monsoon expected to move into Delhi, U.P. Himachal and Punjab by 25th..Heavy rains last 24 hrs in H.P:
HIMACHAL PRADESH 06/24/2020 : PALAMPUR 110.0 mms,  JOGINDARNAGAR 96.0 mms  BAIJNATH 93.0 mms,  DHARMSALA 92.4 mms,  KANGRA AERO 87.0 mms, KANGRA SARAHAN 33.0 mms,  KUMARSAIN 32.6 mms,  NAGROTA SURIAN 31.2 mms,  KANGRA KOTHI 28.2 mms, DALHOUSI ALHA AWS 25.0 mms.

Subdued rainfall in NW India, after 25th ..
Central India and along Coastal Karnatak, N.I. Karnatak, Konkan, Interior Mah, Gujarat State will see subdued and scanty rainfall.
Warm/hot temperatures in the regions with scanty rainfall....After hot days, there is a possibility of Localised Thunder Storms may pop up over Marathwada on 27th.


Outlook for 24th/25th/26th/27th June:
Mumbai; Partly sunny with few passing showers. Hot sultry day. Mumbai total rain is now in deficit..Improvement necessary to augment the Water Position. 

Pune: Thunder Shower possible after hot day on 25th..Rest of the days partly cloudy with light rains in some parts of city.

Goa: Partly cloudy with few passing showers..weak Monsoon.

Aurangabad: Partly cloudy with stray showers.Weak Monsoon . A localised Thunder Shower may occur on 27th....very localised. 

Delhi: Expect the Monsoon to advance by 25th..but decrease in rainfall after 25th.

12 comments:

sset said...

Now Navi Mumbai very heavy rains !

Ameya Patwardhan said...

Thanks.I have newly started following your blog.Do we have a break monsoon setting in very early?
One odd point I noticed is that Lohegaon observatory in pune has recorded much more rainfall in June as compared to Shivajinagar and pashan of pune,while the situation is the opposite usually.

Sarfaraj khan said...

So after break monsoon i.e after 28 june can we expect monsoon axis to shift south ward and give some relief to mumbai and north konkan region.
Seems like monsoon is not happy with mumbai and surrounding.

Unknown said...

Hi Rajesh, thanks for the detailed explanation. I see that the break period has come in quite early affecting rain in Western India. How do you see July shaping up for Mumbai and Gujarat ? Will there be a pick up ? Or is this early to take a call ?

Suresh

Cumulus arjun said...

So sir, but these rainfall amounts contrast with the one which IMD is posting since IMD missed the rainfall ending 4 June 8:30 (cyclone Nisarga) in most of the ghat places except Mahabaleshwar. So sir have you received the cyclone nisarga rainfall for these places??

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Cumulus Arjun, No need to worry on that front. We already had covered Nisarga Cyclone rainfall from all ghat places right on 4th itself. If you had not checked then here is link for you: http://www.vagaries.in/2020/06/rainfall-from-cyclone-nisarga-in.html

Vinod Desai said...

Its very hot and humid in mumbai. This is unbearable. At night we feel like as if its May or April or even bad. Its suffocating. Last 3 days I have not seen a single drop of rain. The rains we got seems like was pseudo monsoon.

Cumulus arjun said...

Ok thanks sir!

sset said...

Maharashtra - 'make hay while sun shines'
Last recent decade Maharashtra, Central India, GUJ,RAJ, Orissa always had excess SWM. Northeast states started slipping into deficit. June 2020 seems to favor NE states.

Given MAHA Covid 19 situation late rains are good - given fact we had terrible excess SWM 2019.

sset said...

Excellent compilation by Vagaries !

Rawat said...

Data is showing Cherrapunji recorded 245 mm rainfall 3 hrs ending 11.30 am 26 june.If this amount is correct it will be see 24 hrs rainfall next morning considering Cherrapunji records most rain in wee hours of the day

Viravanalluran said...

I think the movement of NLM rightly fits with the apparent movement of SUN. The Sun has started its journey towards Southern Hemisphere. The Bay branch of SWM is active at Kolkotta latitude and above only. Elsewhere due to weak monsoonal currents and due to local heating [thermal] lows form and move in East-West direction and gives very heavy rainfall at isolated places in its movement.

Posted 12 Noon 3rd July Friday: On Friday 3rd, Heavy Rains lash South and Central Mumbai; Rainfall till 8.30 am: Colaba 58 mms, Scruz 1...