Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Posted 17th June 1 pm IST:
(Views are as per Vagaries and may differ with other agencies. So may not be used for commercial purposes)

According to Vagaries the Monsoon is still at the South Konkan line shown on the 13th.
South Kokan, South Maharashtra and Coastal Karnatak rains are active, as seen in the amounts shown in Vagaries...Today, the second station crosses 1k mark with Patgaon ( South Maha
) touching 1032 mms this season..(By Vag. Abhijit)

The UAC trough at various levels persist off the North Konkan coast ..see the images at 850 hpa and 700 hpa.

200 hpa Jet streams confirm the seasonal change .

Now this Upper trough is expected to move West, and then resume the depth of SW winds along the North Konkan Coastline upto South Gujarat coast.
This is expected to further advance the Monsoon into North Konkan and Mumbai by Wednesday Night.
Weak Current advance into South Gujarat coast with weak rainfall in Surat. 
Valsad may get an initial burst on 19th/20th.

Mumbai: Not forgetting the uncertainty of last few days, Rainfall will augment Monsoon from Wednesday Night/ Thursday Early. But later till 20th,, (till we see the Well Marked Low  cross the Odisha coast on 20th), the Mumbai rains will be moderate with sluggish Monsoon start.

Pune: Monsoon can advance into Pune on Wednesday ..Monsoon weather with light to medium rains in city next 4 days.

7 comments:

Deepak said...

Still no rain only wind in bhyander no sign of any rain till now

Unknown said...

Morning Rajesh. I have noticed that when there is a LPA which traverses from BOB inland into Orissa, MP and then there is an associated forecast for rains in Mumbai or North Konkan, the rains do not necessarily match up to expectations. Last year also there were a couple of such cases probably. On the other room hand, when it is more conventional rain along the West Coast, the rains are almost completely in line with the forecasts of various models.

Could you please explain to non technical people like us as to what could be the reasons for above ?

Also could you please add a line on how you see rains for the rest of the month in Gujarat especially North Gujarat ?

Suresh

Deepak said...

Rajesh sir Pls rply

sset said...

very heavy rains lashing Mumbai Navi Mumbai Thane.... like Nisarga 2

Rajesh said...

Suresh: Rains will not always with the System coming in from the Bay towards M.P./Gujarat..Unless there is a "sympathetic" low in the Arabian Sea. And embedded within a strong off shore trough..then Konkan can get good rains.

Rajesh said...

Deepak: Have i replied to you in blog page ?

Deepak said...

Yes sir got it

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