Sunday, July 29, 2018

Posted Sunday Night:
Next 2 days:

Heavy rains expected in East/Central UP and North MP. Regions South of Lucknow includes Rae Barielly and areas bordering MP. North MP regions may include regions just North of Jabalpur.

Next 3 days:

New Delhi: Hot days again for Delhi NCR. Temperatures, in absence of proper rains going touching 38/39c...Hot !

Mumbai: Hot and stuffy, with minimal rains. Sunny periods. Day temperatures around 31/32c. Nights also stuffy. (Probably Scruz IMD station needs re calibration and correction for minimum readings).
Pune: Days getting warmer, maybe hot after crossing 30c.

Kolkata: Heavy rains expected on Monday and Tuesday.

Bhubaneshwar: Rains reducing.

Readers from Delhi, Kolkata and other regions please give the actual feedback. Helps in forecasting.

Short term variations, local record hots and colds, don’t mean much, that’s just weather. What matters is long term global trend lines over decades, centuries, millennia, eons, epochs.


Vinod Desai said...


Any station who have crossed 5000 mm mark till now. Seems Agumbe is close to this. What is situation of other Station in Maharashtra, Meghalaya.

sset said...

What about other end of extremities - Rayalseema, Chittor, Anantapur, Cuddapa, Tamil Nadu complete dry. No proper NEM since 2015. 5 years drought, 1 year of normal rain...Wondering if August,September will rains occur over interiors of south ?

UP received very good rains in short time.

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology

Issued 31 July 2018

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

El Niño WATCH continues

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. While the central Pacific Ocean has cooled very slightly in the past fortnight, more than half of international climate models predict warming to recommence in the coming month, and El Niño to develop in spring. Therefore, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. An El Niño WATCH means there is a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2018; double the normal chance.

Oceanic ENSO indicators remain neutral. The surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled slightly in the past fortnight but remains warmer than average. Likewise, the water below the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean has also cooled recently but remains warmer than average. Atmospheric indicators such as the trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), also remain neutral.

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to recommence in the coming weeks. Five of eight models indicate El Niño levels will be reached in the southern hemisphere spring, while a sixth model reaches El Niño levels in December.

During El Niño, winter-spring rainfall in eastern Australia is typically below average while daytime temperatures are typically warmer than average in the south.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Three of six international climate models indicate a positive IOD event may develop, with a fourth model close to meeting thresholds. A positive IOD event typically reduces winter–spring rainfall in central and southern Australia, and can exacerbate any El Niño driven rainfall deficiencies.

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Next update expected on 14 August 2018

 Talking about the current  Mumbai  Pollution