Friday, July 13, 2018





Posted 13th July Night:

As posted on 9th , The Low pressure has formed in the North West Bay. It has been long since we saw a system from the Bay, only numbered BB-4 .
This has kept the Monsoon trough in its normal position.
As Vagaries had mentioned in the 10th post,  Being active along the trough, Delhi region got very good rains on Friday. From 8.30 am- 5.30 pm, The Ridge saw 118 mms, Ayanagar 71 mms, Lodhi Road 44 mms, Gurgaon 39 mms.S'Jung  5 cms.
Rains reducing after Saturday, to increase again next Wednesday.

Mumbai:
After a few showers on Friday, we see a gradual increase in rainfall from Saturday. Frequent showers on Saturday increasing to frequent showers with increased rainfall on Sunday and Monday.With rainfall likely around 100 mms or more in some Northern suburbs, Local flooding possible on Sunday/Monday. 
More rains likely in Northern outer townships and ghats. 

21 comments:

Rash Brawler said...

What is going to cause the increase in rains in and around Mumbai? The Low Pressure?

Girirajsinh Jadeja said...

What will be the possible track of the low?
North West or West?

Girirajsinh Jadeja said...

What will be the possible track of the low?
North West or West?

rajesh said...

The Low will be well marked and track W/NW towards M.P. and Gujarat. The track will generally be along the axis.
The Mumbai rains should increase due to this BB-4 system and the activation of the off shore trough plus the pull effect due to BB-4.

Karan Kumbhar said...

Sir
Will the low be helpful in pulling the rains in interior Maharashtra ?
Especially marathawada and eastern part of Madhya Maharashtra ?

shiekhz said...

Sir any chances for sindh from this BB4?

rajesh said...

BB4 may not remain till Sindh. Light rains and drizzles in KHI and coast from Monday for 2/3 days.

We can say some early rains on Monday and Tuesday in Marathwada...around 20 mms. Pune sees some 15-20 mms on Monday/Tuesday.

Better showers in intensity early next week in Vidharbha (including Akola).Akola gets good showers Mon/Tues/Wed.

sset said...

Vagaries on spot predictions. Torrential rains hitting Navi Mumbai since yesterday. Looks like dump of 200-300mm - record July rains! Many Navi Mumbai/Thane places can exceed 2000mm by July end.

sset said...

Gaint maharashtra -> Amboli and Patherpunj cross 3000mm since june 10th !
Information taken from kea blog- PJ

sset said...

Driest place during SWM as of 15-july-2018 is SE India TN -> Pamban and Thotakodui. Just 0.8 mm (< 1 mm)!

sset said...

2018 seems to be exceptional year for Maharashtra - specially north konkan.
2017 till july 15 - taken from vagaries
http://www.vagaries.in/2017/07/
Just for Information, Scruz total from 1st June till date is 812 mms, Colaba 659 mms. Mahableshwar total is 2034 mms, Mathran 2118 mms, Lonavla 1959 mms and Thane 1263 mms.

But 2018 it is 1000mm more (++)
santacruz - 1800mm
colaba - 1600mm

Konkan seems to get attacked with AS trough + AS UAC + Bay low (almost twice a week!)


sset said...

Beautiful Modak Sagar overflows! Quiet early last year was on august.

Sarvesh said...

modak sagar on verge of overflowing

sset said...

Difference between trough and UAC...
A trough is an elongated (extended) region of relatively low atmospheric pressure, often associated with front
The upper circulation in India is jet streams. Upper air circulation in this region is dominated by a westerly flow. An important component of this flow is the jet streams. Jet streams are located approximately over 27-30 north latitude, therefore they are known as subtropical westerly jet streams.(500 hpa ?)

I am still curious- we see many UACs in IMD weather report - but why does UAC over Maharashtra and GUJ gives continuous torrential 3 digit rains but not in other places? Mumbai no sun since june only rain cold windy ....

Abhijit Modak said...

Big lol to that person who repeatedly just compare and compare wrong zone. Now after SI Kar now comparing Konkan (SWM zone) to SE TN Pamban(NEM zone). surely an worst behavior than small kid here. at least kid taught about climatology and annual avg he will understood but here completely gone case.

If someone says Oct to Dec Pamban receives 1500 mm and here Navi Mumbai on 0 in same period so how other will react with laughing same case is here can't do anything to rubbish comments . at least Rajesh sir not blocking here so his repetitive irritating comments are continuing from years and years.

And you read Kea blog regularly as heavy weights rainfall figures from PJ post, you discuss it here. So if you have guts whatever repetitive comparison you post here do same post on Kea blog also then !! Kea blog mainly caters TN weather and your concern on SE India will be more nicely answer their. So whats stopping you from commenting their in Kea blog ?? Why irritating rest blog readers here with non sense comparison !!

parshuram shinde said...

Very heavy rain in santacruz

Rash Brawler said...

Rajeshbhai, what is the forecast for Mumbai for the coming week?

Sarvesh said...

Bhatsa is filled 58 percent not 45

shiekhz said...

Ok thanks alot sir...

sarfarajkhan khan said...

Sir what's the forecast for Mumbai region for next week

shiekhz said...

Sir BB-5 likely to delay..... now this BB5 can remain alive for more 2 days?

One more wonderful analysis on cyclone activity for us written by Vineet Kumar Singh (Vagarian) An overview of cyclone activity in nor...