Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Posted Tuesday Night:

Monsoon Withdrawal till now Stationary at West Rajasthan...Withdrawal Line will now move towards Delhi NCR by 7th October:

New Delhi: The prevailing UAC over Gujarat, which also had a segment in adjoining MP, delayed the crisp cooling normally felt in Delhi and NW India. In fact, interaction with a WD trough brought some rains to Delhi on Tuesday. Seeing temperatures around 36/37c continuing in Delhi next 3 days, and the nights may drop below 22c after the weekend. Monsoon withdrawal by 7th October.

Mumbai: Wednesday Thursday and Friday: Getting some respite from rains in Mumbai and Konkan towns. Partly cloudy with few showers next 3 days. Periods of sunshine will warm up the days. Possible increase in rains again from Next weekend.

Showers will continue in Saurashtra and Gujarat Region till 8th October. 
Saurashtra may see thunder showers next 3/4 days.Some spots may get heavy showers, while many towns will get between 20-30 mms. 
Ahmadabad will get thunder showers on Wednesday, Thursday and maybe on Friday.
Rains decreasing in Surat after Wednesday.Very windy . Probable of some revival on Sunday 9th October.

Monsoon Withdrawal from MP after 10th October.

7 comments:

Vinod Desai said...

Very heavy rains are being observed at places of kutch and north gujarat.

sset said...

correct seems pounding rains in GUJ -> 150-200mm!! month of october.
Recent times highest rain in october was 2006 -> 250mm of rain for october month.
5 months of rain has made entire MAHA/konkan - overgrown trees,streams,misty cloud, cold and rain -> no sunshine.

Down south it is blistering hot, no rain only drought - what is in store for NEM - will it happen way IMD says?

Cumulus Arjun said...

I would suppose to say that there are no chances for SWM to withdraw MP and adjoining North Maharashtra and Gujarat till 12-13th October. Onset of NEM also looks bleak till 20th October in My view. There are no signs of easterlies in all the wind levels and only westerlies are prevelant over most of India barring extreme west Rajasthan. The so called term of "last-last ki baarish"(used by common people) is still prevalent in Rajasthan. Also rains are still hitting the already rain-hit Maharashtra and parts of Madhya Pradesh. Also rains are again expected to increase around dussehra in Mumbai as models show a system around Mumbai at that time-frame. I feel that SWM will only withdraw Mumbai by 15th October and whole India by around/after 20th October. In short a gem of a year for Maharashtra and Mumbai which needed these rains badly after suffering drought since 2011 except 2013. Others can have different views.

sset said...

IMD still says...

Based on the 24 hours rainfall data ending at 0830 hours IST of 4th October 2016; southwest monsoon was vigorous over Gujarat state and active over Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan & Goa.

Word "vigourous" in month of october should been for south India?

satish setty said...

But entire southern drought is more serious problem after failure of SWM, NEM failure will create deserts .. many interiors are having rains < 200mm since june!!
South has only 1 river -> Cauvery which is GOD gifted.

Kea blog shows +IOD 2015 and -IOD 2016 (this impact on NEM??)
Also we need systems which cross TN/SAP not to Orissa/MP/Vidarbha/MAHA/GUJ (same curve?) or WB/Bangladesh.

Cumulus Arjun said...

In my views, IMD hasn't been on the bullseye this year unlike last year as except Maharashtra, MP and Rajasthan many areas had an ordinary monsoon but however, the good rains again in Maharashtra/MP might have decreased the deficiency as it was at -2.87% deficit by the end of September. A good NEM like last year should be needed as it can reduce the small deficiency.

sunny fernandes said...

sset and satish shetty , are both same person .there is no doubt about it.
only he is just trying to convince people ' that there are more people like him with similar views.
regarding southern india