Thursday, October 27, 2016

Posted Thursday 27th Night:

Well, I had admitted in advance, that this BB-14 is going to tear our hair apart, and will behave most unexpectedly. Never have I given up on any system. But, 8 days ago, in my post on the 20th of this month, I said "this is going to be puzzling".I could see the uncertainties of the Ridge and the varying wind shears and the sudden Western segment cover up of dry air (hence my mention of the system may weaken on re curving), 

And sure enough,it tracked most unexpectedly, initially North, then West, then again Eastwards and followed by a N/NE track. Later a re curve to West and then West/South West. 
Reasons for this changes is the East movement of the Sub Tropical Ridge in the upper atmosphere and the frequent changes in the 200 level jet streams. The upper air moved in a "haywire" manner. Shear and dry air resisted the system later. 

The only one point where i may say i got it right was that the system would weaken if it re curved to the West, and weaken it did...lying today as a depression and maybe a well marked low on Friday.

The system being currently in the 83E Location, has brought N/NE winds to the Southern parts of the East Coast, AP and TN. This change of winds are favourable for the advance of the NEM, which I would say would move into the entire Southern Region around the 29th, seeing the pushing inland of the BB-14 Low Pressure.

Another development i see is the sudden cover up of the Southern peninsula with clouds as BB-14 crosses the coast (on 29th) at around 15N on the East coast, bringing heavy rains to Southern AP Coast. 
We may see a sudden "filling up" of clouds inland, bringing rainfall in TN, Karnataka, Kerala and Goa.
Inland clouding will spread subsequently upto 15N.

Chennai: Initial showers on 29th and Thunder Showers expected in Chennai 30th/31st. Seeing Easterly winds from 30th as the system dissipates inland.
Mumbai had some pleasantly cool weather on Tuesday/Wednesday with the minimum at 18.8c. But, next few days till 2nd November,  there will be a rise in temperatures, with partly cloudy skies. Warm days.

9 comments:

Nilay Wankawala said...

Spot on Rajesh sir Day is getting hotter here in Mumbai

Cumulus Arjun said...

Sir, days are getting hotter in Mumbai, but nights are same. Yesterday Mumbai (SCZ) minimum temperature 19.8 C

Amit Tare said...

Hello Rajesh Sir,

I am going to B'lore for Diwali, what is the forecast for B'lore for next week.

Thanks,
Amit Tare

Saurabh Dwivedi said...

That depression seems to be disappearing.
If clouds push in from the south the Mumbai temperatures will go from below to above normal.

rajesh said...

Amit: Bangalore will get showers or thunder showers , in many parts of city. Showers will prevail from Sunday to Wednesday 2nd. Day will be around 30c and 18c at night as minimum.

Saurabh: Clouds will push till Goa (15N)...maybe scattered clouds in South Madhya Mah.

Vijayanand said...

Reports of heavy rain In nellore, south coastal AP. Chennai is cloudy.

Bangalore clear and warm.
Feel from evening clouds would move in to bangalore.

sset said...


http://bangaloremirror.indiatimes.com/bangalore/others/This-was-the-driest-October-in-45-years-in-Karnataka/articleshow/55121121.cms

karnataka reels under drought strees, with NEM failure October driest!
Most of the time cyclone just before NEM onset has resulted in NEM failures... 2012,2013..
Only one month NOV remains either happens or not?

Neeraj said...

Two more systems in the bay in quick succession , what is your take sir ???

Shivkumar Mogal said...

Chilly weather in Nashik. Nashik recorded 11.4°C minimum temperature today. It is the second most lowest temperature recorded at least previous 10 years in October month.