Wednesday, October 05, 2016



FINAL MONSOON REPORT (01-6-2016 TO 30-9-2016)


TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL this season (as on 30-9-2016)862.0 mm
SEASON +/--2.87%


RAINFALL PER DAY from 01-06-2016 to 30-9-2016 7.07 mm

             
TOP TEN SUBDIVISIONS ACTUAL

KONKAN & GOA 3549.8
COASTAL KARNATAKA 2428.8
SHWB & SIKKIM 1996.2
ARUNACHAL PRADESH 1699.1
A & N ISLAND 1562.6
KERALA 1352.2
EAST MADHYA PRADESH 1249.4
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA 1249
N M M T 1244
CHHATTISGARH 1176

BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS ACTUAL

HIMACHAL PRADESH 624.5
N. I. KARNATAKA 525.7
S. I. KARNATAKA 524.5
JAMMU & KASHMIR 481.8
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH 416.9
RAYALASEEMA 392.2
PUNJAB 352
HAR. CHD & DELHI 338.3
WEST RAJASTHAN 315.8
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY 258.1
              
TOP TEN SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL

EAST RAJASTHAN 32%
KONKAN & GOA 22%
MARATHWADA 21%
WEST RAJASTHAN 20%
EAST MADHYA PRADESH 19%
WEST MADHYA PRADESH 19%
TELANGANA 19%
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH 14%
MADHYA MAHARASHTRA 12%
VIDARBHA 9%


BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL

TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY -19%
COASTAL KARNATAKA -21%
S. I. KARNATAKA -21%
GUJARAT REGION -24%
HIMACHAL PRADESH -24%
LAKSHADWEEP -25%
HAR. CHD & DELHI -27%
PUNJAB -28%
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA -30%
KERALA -34%

CATEGORY WISE SUBDIVISIONAL (%)







% DISTRIBUTION ABOVE/BELOW  DAILY RAINFALL



REGIONAL RAINFALL ACTUAL

MONTHLY RAINFALL ACTUAL


2016 RAINFALL IN PERSPECTIVE

                                                                                                                                       source:IMD

23 comments:

rajesh said...

well done GSB..well depicted !

Abhishek Apte said...

Excellent Work GSB!..Very well explained..

Srikanth said...

Very well done summary. Keep up the good work going.

Cumulus Arjun said...

Very well compiled! Hats off! Excellent work GSB sir!

Cumulus Arjun said...

This SWM/This year so far just in the negative anomaly by a whisker(but not deficit only normal. Hopefully a good NEM Will push rainfall stats into normal when the yearly report comes at December 31.

Nilay Wankawala said...

wonderful as always been ...GSB sir.. lovely for sharing your compilation here

Shiva HEAD said...

Kudos. Excellent work Sir.

satish setty said...

It is very strange -> one day some model map shows"Anti cyclone" over RAJ stating monsoon withdrawl, next day it becomes "cyclone" with UAC - rains over GUJ/RAJ?

satish setty said...

Entire GUJ pounding rains -> 200mm max some areas.
South no sign any rains October is passing away soon.....TN heat wave conditions.

Cumulus Arjun said...

I am changing my forecast. Now there will be a speedy withdrawal on the cards and officially SWM might leave Mumbai by 10-12th October (I am not an expert so it might get wrong or even correct)

Cumulus Arjun said...

Surprising to see that Assam and Meghalaya which has Cherrapunji and Mawsynram at only 1200 mm at average this SWM! A deficit one.

GSB said...

Thanks Rajesh Sir and everyone.

I was intending to add the district top and bottom stations to the post but for lack of space and formatting issues did not do so. Will put up a All India district only monsoon toppers and laggards in a day or two.

Gurvinder.

Ishan Vajpeyi said...

Rajesh Sir, why has IMD declared withdrawal of SWM from some more parts of NW India when the winds are constantly ESE over the region and the moisture content has still not reduced? And why ARE these conditions persisting over NW India in the first place? Its the first time I am seeing such weather conditions during Navaratri in NW India! Usually winds started blowing from the NW with the formation of a strong anticyclone over the region as early as mid- to late-September, and by this time in October we started enjoying cool,crisp nights and misty mornings! Hope this weather ceases soon!

Saurabh Dwivedi said...

@Rajesh
I have the same question as Ishan.
Late withdrawal and and at the same time September rainfall was way below normal. Take Delhi for example. Almost no rain in the last one month. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/sn42182_30.gif
Extended monsoon(technically) but no rain

Wind direction criteria not really met. Humidity levels high. It is almost as if out of sheer fatigue IMD is withdrawing the monsoon :).

By the way change seems to be coming. Amritsar morning low went from 7 above to 3 above normal.
Rajesh you did forecast a drop but maybe you can share more details in the next report. Last time you just mentioned Delhi and MP and did not touch upon North India.

rajesh said...

Ishan/Saurabh: Please see a brief in Flash Snippets. I see the Monsoon withdrawing from North/West and Delhi by Friday. Yes, it was quite dry last 30 or so days. This was due to a variety of reasons...like Axis remaining South , upper air systems tracking thru Central India and the seasonal Low remaining more South activating the off shore trough in the West Coast.
But, after the current WD, we see a firm anticyclone formation, so technically we can mention withdrawal of the Monsoon.
Nights are bound to get cooler gradually from Sunday as North winds start blowing in the region.This will also bring drier conditions reducing the humidity levels next week.
Towns in Punjab may see a further drop in night temperatures by 2/3c from current 21-23c levels from Sunday. Days may however still remain around 33-35c.

Shreyas Dhavale said...

In tropical climatic regions, things can change/differ than the initial forecasts at times. Even models like GFS & ECMWF may give different results for different runs each day. So though you may seem correct @Arjun, there is bound to be some degree of uncertainty especially during the season transition period :)

Unknown said...

Rajesh , your technical explanations this monoon has been a fabulous experience for non weather people like me. Very lucid and easy to understand. And this has been backed solidly by the vagaries team like GSB and others by providing data spot on. In a way, it is a pity that we have probably only 3 to 4 days more of SWM to enjoy this. (Even though one particular person thinks that that the S in the SWM is meant to focus only on South !!!!!! )

Suresh

Unknown said...

Rajesh, do you also have an outlook for the North East Monsoon this year ?

Suresh

Nimish Thaker said...

Looking forward to nice and bright days in Mumbai, long long Monsoon season this. Although not much of a winter in Mumbai but I will take whatever reduction in Humidity and drop in temperatures Winter has to offer in Mumbai. Looking forward to the dry weather now.

rohit aroskar said...

October 2016 rains ( 1 to 7 Oct 2016 ) at some stations :

Osmanabad (Maha) @ 200 + mms
Surat (Guj)@ 177 mms
Alibag (Maha) @ 157 nmms
Ajmer (Raj) @ 120 mms
Amreli (Guj) @ 110 mms
Ahmedabad (Guj)@ 99 mms
Bhuj (Guj)@ 60 mms
Kolkata (WB) @ 8 mms
Delhi @ 4 mms
Bengaluru @ 0

Saurabh Dwivedi said...

Thanks Rajesh.
Some related observations

Monsoon of late is not withdrawing in the manner as documented in text books. For example it no longer takes 3 weeks to go from Amritsar to Gorakhpur. It is much more abrupt. For example this year for Amritsar the withdrawal date was 4th October. I will not be surprised if it exits Gorakhpur in the next 4 days.

Mumbai area should lose the monsoon by end of September. Here are the withdrawal dates of the last 5 years.
2015 15 Oct
2014 14 Oct
2013 18 Oct
2012 12 Oct
2011 23 Oct

Big deviation from the normal dates.

Even after the monsoon withdraws the humid weather continues through October so places like Pune have above normal night temperatures right through October similar to what North India is witnessing right now.

Let me clarify upfront, this does not really have any impact on North East monsoon. As i have pointed out in the past, 9 out of the last 12 NEMs have been above average for TN.

rohit aroskar said...

India..10 Most Populated Cities ..Rain in mms .. 1 Jun to 8 Oct 2016..
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1) Mumbai SCZ ..2974 mms
2) Kolkata AP ..1329
3) Surat.. 1103
4) Hyderabad .. 869
5) Ahmedabad .. 706
6) Pune AP .. 654
7) Delhi Palam .. 626
8) Jaipur.. 552
9) Chennai.. 537
10) Bengaluru .. 517

Vinod Desai said...

Mumbai way ahead of any other city.Hoping Final thunder shower helps to cross 3000mm :)