Monday, October 10, 2016

Posted Monday Night:

1. Mumbai: A weak Low prevails off South Konkan Coast. Expected Thunder Showers did not occur on Sunday/Monday. The Low mentioned will shift Southwards along the coast (in the trough) along with Monsoon Axis. 
Mumbai (and North Konkan Towns) have a slight possibility of some thunder showers on Tuesday/Wednesday. 

Monsoon would withdraw from North Konkan, Madhya Mah,Marathwada, Vidharbha and MP and remaining Gujarat by 15th October. 

2.Some showers will prevail next 2 days in South Konkan and Goa.

3.Rains will continue this week in Interior and coastal Karnataka. Some heavy showers towards end of this week in Kerala and adjoining Tamil Nadu.

4.Rainfall decreases in Eastern Regions of India from Wednesday.

5.North and North West India are seeing warmer than normal temperatures, Day and Night. Would expect a drop in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi NCR by 2/3 c in Night temperatures by Saturday morning.

3 comments:

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology


Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 11 October 2016

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

Negative Indian Ocean Dipole eases; continued impacts likely
The tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, however, some indicators have shifted closer to La Niña thresholds. Conversely, the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has eased, though waters off Indonesia remain at near-record temperatures. This may see continued IOD impacts for Australia.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean have cooled over the past fortnight, consistent with a surge in the trade winds. The latest weekly NINO3.4 value of -0.6 °C—while still at neutral levels—is a value not seen since February 2012 (the end of the 2010–12 La Niña). Cloudiness near the Date Line and the Southern Oscillation Index have also shifted closer to La Niña-like levels. However, some forecasts suggest trade winds may return to near-normal soon. This could occur with the passage of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and would slow or cease any further La Niña development.

The majority of international climate models indicate the tropical Pacific is likely to remain at ENSO neutral levels through to the end of the 2016–17 summer. Two of the eight models suggest brief, weak, La Niña levels are possible towards the end of 2016. The ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH.

With warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures to Australia's north and east, some La Niña-like impacts remain likely even if an event doesn't fully develop.

Negative IOD values have eased over the past fortnight, however this is mainly due to ocean warming off Africa. Waters off Indonesia remain very warm, and were second warmest on record for September. Models indicate the IOD will return to neutral levels by the end of spring. Spring in eastern Australia is typically wetter than average during a negative IOD or La Niña.

Next update expected on 25 October 2016

ANOOP RAWAT said...

While both sfd and palam received below normal rainfall.sfd received 585.6mm from January 1to 10oct against normal of751.6mm.But iari pusa seems to be wettest place in Delhi with this year rainfall 1207mm.Last year this station recorded 1123mm and in 2013 1531mm which is too much for DELHI.Interestingly it has already recorded min of 18℃

Cumulus Arjun said...

Looks like my prediction will get correct!!