Vagaries works out a Medium/Long Term Forecast for its reference thrice a week .Long Term Forecast is hardly ever put up on Vagaries due to uncertainty and varying changes., but
Judging form the anxiety about the rains, Vagaries is today deviating and putting up a "rare Medium Term forecast".(Subject to revision).
1. South West Monsoon likely to withdraw from West Rajasthan and Sindh by 13th September. Temperatures likely to rise in Sindh.
2. 12th Monday - 14th Wednesday, rains likely in Vidharbh, South Chattisgarh, Odisha. Kashmir and HP get rains from a WD.
3. From Thursday 15th/ Friday 16th-Sunday 18th ...Rains likely in Interior Maharashtra, Konkan, NI Karnataka, Southern Peninsula, Central India (M.P.) and Southern U.P. Substantial increase in rains in Madhya Maharashtra (Pune/Nasik) and Goa, Konkan (Mumbai and towns around).
Thunder showers in Mumbai Friday-Sunday.
4. From Saturday 17th, for a copule of days, rains in Saurashtra and rest Gujarat except Kutch. Rains increasing Saturday/Sunday in West Bengal/Odisha.
This will reduce the All India Monsoon Deficit after 20th September....Current deficit -5%
Mumbai Lakes Position: 97% full, and having storage of 1405 Mcum out of full capacity of 1441 Mcum. Translating, we have 1 year water stock, i.e. upto 15th September 2017. Lakes Info credit Vagarian Jayesh Mehta.