Saturday, September 17, 2016


Mumbai Water Supply Lakes are now 98% full, and City has a year's Stock available as on today..data from Vagarian Jayesh Mehta 


compiled by Vagarian Tejas

Posted Saturday Night:

1*. The UAC off the Mumbai coast, descended to sea level on Saturday. The Low is expected to dissolve by Sunday evening. Rainfall decreasing in Konkan and Interior Mah from Sunday evening.

2**. Another Low is expected to form off the North Konkan/Saurashtra Coast around the 24th/25th of September. Seeing the developments possible, this may develop and deepen, and as AS-1, track Westwards into the Arabian Sea.
3. South West Monsoon will withdraw from Rajasthan and Kutch by 19th of this month. And subsequently from Punjab in the next 2 days.
Monsoon may withdraw from NCR around 26th of September.

*1(a): Mumbai: Vagaries had clarified, that depending on the exact location of the UAC, 100 kms North/South of Mumbai cold be the range of rainfall along the coast. 
As shown in maps ( In Vagaries) on Friday and Saturday, this trough and embedded UAC has produced rainfall upto 100-350 mms. In the  North (Dahanu 120 kms had 345 mms) and South (Murud 120 kms had 230 mms) of Mumbai.

Mumbai received an average rainfall of 23 mms as on 15th morning, 68 mms on 16th and 76 mms on 17th.
Rains will persist in the Mumbai region on Saturday night and Sunday. Frequent showers on Saturday night and Sunday.Next 24 hrs, from Saturday mid night- Sunday mid night Mumbai can bring up 60-80 mms. 
Saurashtra had good showers on Friday and Saturday(mentioned in LTF on Tuesday). 
South Gujarat region coast and Coastal Saurashtra will get thunder showers on Sunday. 
Surat: Chances of a couple of heavy showers on Sunday. Next 24 hrs,30-50 mms till Sunday night.

**2(a): On forming, AS-1 may bring rains again to North Konkan around 23rd.(If on schedule, Mumbai may get another spell on 22nd or 23rd). Showers will also cover the South Saurashtra Coast.

Mumbai Water Position see Mumbai Page

11 comments:

Cumulus Arjun said...

Sir, extreme pounding here since 8:00 pm in the evening in goregaon western suburbs

Patel Hiten said...

Sir how much chance of rain in Gujarat for next 3 to 4 days?

Vinod Desai said...

We have got some rains after 7 pm to 10 pm could be around 40-50 mm.

Ankit patel said...

Patel hiten can u specify which area of guj?

sset said...

Entire night it rains pounded over Navi Mumbai (150mm i guess) - this must be wettest september, all 4 moths june-sept MAHA received excess rains..
rains continues to elude south west coast (KER,coastal KAR...leaving cauvery dry)
Now as vageries forecast another low for konkan that means no rain for south...
Looking at this Mumbai annual may reach 2500-3000mm!

Cumulus Arjun said...

Sir, As per MCGM site, Goregaon (W) topper at 108 mm yesterday, followed by Andheri with 72 mm and Dindoshi (Goregaon E) with 70 mm rainfall

Salim Ramani said...

Rajesh Sir

Thank u for providing detailed weather analysis from time to time .
its not always about forecasting all the time , but your knowledge of the subject is very impressive .

i found some article which i would like to share with u all .

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/@@search?SearchableText=Withdrawal

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/kontakt/pressebuero/fotos/monsoon-withdrawal/at_download/file



sset said...

Apologies I still feel many south Indian places are in process of desertification.
if we see NEM are so weak only after 4-5 years NEM are good for instance 2005,2010,2015...now since SWM failed over southern india - NEM is big question. After sep 25 low we do not know...all rouge system like Hudhud,Phalin,Western disturbances ensure no peace for NEM...

sset said...

raining non stop over navi mumbai--- seems no stoppage of rains....

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Sir, can we expect light rain in NCR around 21st

Saurabh Dwivedi said...

@SSET
I am really intrigued where you get your information from. Please refer to this link
from IMD Chennai regarding north east monsoon for Tamil Nadu. Here is the link http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/nemweb.pdf

Here is a page 2 from the same report.

Right from the year 2004 North east monsoon is either normal or excess till
2011 over Tamil nadu and Puducherry. Perhaps this best epoch in NEM
performance.
YEAR PDP
2004 +1
2005 +79
2006 +15
2007 +21
2008 +31
2009 +12
2010 +42
2011 +23
2012 -16
2013 -33
2014 -2

2015 numbers are not mentioned here but we all know it was a huge surplus.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest desertification of South India is underway.