Thursday, September 08, 2016

Posted Thursday Night:

1. Low pressure moves into the Nepal region, and disintegrates in the hills. Heavy showers expected in Kathmandu on Friday thru Sunday. Can expect 120-150 mms in 3 days cumulative.Heavy rains expected in Sikkim and Himalayan West Bengal.

2. In the Tuesday Post, we had mentioned of BB-11 forming off the AP coast. BB-11 form around the date, and as mentioned , enhance rainfall in the Northern and Central Peninsula. Weekend showers expected in Hyderabad (India)

3. On Thursday, UAC over Gujarat region is now located over South coastal Gujarat and adjoining regions. Latest rain amounts from South coastal Gujarat: Jalalpor (dist Navsari) 14, Pardi (dist Valsad) 14, Choryasi (dist Surat) 12, Navsari (dist Navsari) 10, Gandevi (dist Navsari) 8, Palsana (dist Surat) 7, Vapi (dist Valsad) 7, Madhbun (dist Dadara & Nagar Haveli) 6, Valsad (dist Valsad) 6, Daman (dist Daman) 5, Chikhli (dist Navsari) 5.

Mumbai: Showing moderate increase in rains next week.

Lakes supplying water to Mumbai are now 95% full at 13.86 Mcum. Translating into 365 days ...1 year ...of water available !
Rainfall till date: Modak Sagar 2542 mms, Tansa 2217 mms, Vihar 3710 mms,Tulshi 3268 mms, Upper Vaitarna 2334 mms, Bhatsa 2202 mms, Middle Vairtarna 2392 mms.

Mumbai Scruz 2216 mms and Mumbai Colaba 1792 mms.

15 comments:

Majid Ahmad said...

Dear Sir, you said in your previous post that "South West Monsoon may withdraw from Sindh and West Rajasthan by around 10th September. Will update on this again on 8th". You haven't updated on this in your post of 8th September. Could you please let us know when the South West Monsoon will withdraw from Sindh?

Vinod Desai said...

Dark clouds in north and eastern sky today..

sunny fernandes said...

VERY Heavy rains lashed vasai today FOR 20 MINS

abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir'its raining heavily in nagothane from the past 1 hour.What is the reason for this sudden rain?it was sunny in the morning?Still no sign of stopping!!!

Hrishikesh said...

Dark clouds in western suburbs of Mumbai towards east and north

Prasad Godse said...

Rajesh sir Forecast for North Maharashtra & Madhya Maharashtra for coming days...??
When Thunderstrom will start...??

abizer Kachwala said...

Its raining cats&dogs in nagothane region.Is this a result of hot weather since past 3 days leading to nonstop extremely heavy rains?Has a vortex formed?

parshuram shinde said...

Overcast in santacruz

rajesh said...

abizer/vinod/sunny/Hrishikesh: : A rush of moisture from the Bay, and coupled with the formation of an UAC in the mid Arabian Sea has brought clouding to Maharahtra. Upper air temp along coast remained at 18c at 850 level.
UAC has formed around the 62E and 19N location. Moisture laden winds from the Southern segment of this UAC are rushing towards the West West Coast of India (specially Northern parts).This, alongwith a rush of moisture from the Bay , has brought shallow clouding in Maharashtra. Clouds in Vidarbh are gaining height though.
As the winds approach the coast, they turn NW in direction due to the strengthening UAC (BB-11) off the AP/Odisha coast.
Clouds movement in Mumbai is therefore NW direction.
A few patches of heavy clouds formed and brought heavy rains in some areas along the North Konkan region. This may be due to the sudden cloud cooling at upper level from extreme land heating below.

Prasad: Rains expected to increase in Mah from Sunday as BB-11 moves in.These are not withdrawal showers.

Majid: Waiting for another 2 days to see BB-11 track.

abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,again the same situation like yesterday.Raining extremely heavy since past 20mins in nagothane.

Jiva Bhammar said...

bb-11 benifit to gujarat/saurashtra?

Hrishikesh said...

No rain in Mumbai as of now maybe evening will see showers

Nilesh Ladhad said...

A dry day today in Valsad.Very dark clouds over eastern sky since morning.

sset said...

Still we do not have logical reason why SWM has totally eluded Southern India. Situation is so bad in Cauvery that Vishwarayana canal which irrigates Mandya is totally dry!
All models failed to predict monsoon failure over south india.

However PK Nandankar from IMD Pune says:
Weaker than expected La Nina, negative IOD resulted in scanty rains over southern India - which is in correct as per theory this should have resulted in more rains.

Now with BB11 ready to reach MAHA/GUJ - SWM will still hover central India giving no chance to down southern parts.

Just saw vageries 2015 blog - september resulted in very good rains over Marathwada/GUJ now we r seeing similar pattern. (BB6)

rajesh said...

sset: see Saturday blog for my views..