Sunday, September 25, 2016

Posted Monday Night:
Mumbai will get periods of sunshine with a few passing showers on Tuesday, maybe upto 10 mms in the day/night. Rest of the week will be seeing periods of sunshine with a few showers in some parts. Decreased rain continues till month end. 

Mumbai's Evening thunder showers (from East) may start by next month.

Mumbai Rainfall Stats:( 25th September)

Seasonal Totals:
Colaba: Mumbai Colaba crosses 2500 mms for this season...2507 mms As on 26th September.
Recent crossing 2500 mms was in 2011 when Colaba measured 2879 mms ( Full Season) and in 2010 when this station saw 3291 mms till Monsoon withdrawal.
Highest ever Seasonal total for Colaba is 3482 mms in 1954.
Santacruz:  Total on 26th September for this season stands at 2893 mms.
Recently in 2010, SCruz measured 3392 mms till Monsoon withdrawal. Highest ever at Scruz is 3785 mms in 1958.

September Totals;
Colaba: This year 2016, as on 25th September, this Month has recorded 731 mms , while wettest ever September was in 1988 and 1993, when 832 mms was recorded.
Santa Cruz:2016 September, Scruz has received 703 mms, still short of the record september of 1993 when the month saw 905 mms.

Incidentally,  2011 had the Longest Monsoon Season for Mumbai, when the Monsoon withdrew on 24th October, after lasting 141 days !

20 comments:

rajesh said...

Seems the SWM will withdraw from Saurashtra and North Gujarat by 26th September. By 30th Sept, it should withdraw fro rest of Gujarat, Haryana, Delhi and West MP.
Mumbai will have a Low rainfall week now, before the evening thunder showers from East start.

Tejas Baxi said...

Borivali, Mumbai rainfall till 25/9/16 2568.3mm
June 614.8mm
July 1001.9mm
Aug 548.4mm
Sep 493.2mm
Borivali crossed 2500mms on 23rd September

Unknown said...

Morning Rajesh. Based on this, could we expect monsoon withdrawal from Mumbai and Maharashtra by early October ?

Suresh

Ishan Vajpeyi said...

Can i ask you something Rajesh Sir,why is the wind direction in NW plains persistently SSE instead of being WNW? Isn't this unusual for north India?

Nilay Wankawala said...

SOURCE IMD

cumulative rainfall till 25.09.2016 All over India 838.6 MM as against Normal 864.7 MM
% departure is 3.1% on a negative side - Gap filling up -5 days to go...

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Humid weather in Delhi may last for few more days as trough from north bengal to LPA.

Cumulus Arjun said...

Sunny and pleasant weather here in Mumbai today! A typical wintry day but the notorious October heat is going to start after the end of this super wet September for Bombay

rajesh said...

ishan: The Monsoon axis is now shifting South (Seasonal). The axis runs from Southern Sindh thru the Low (BB-13) in Vidharbh. Now, as is known, the winds North of the axis remain SE, and SOuth of the axis are W/SW. That is as long as the SWM persists. Now, additionally, there is a North-South trough from UP thru Vidharbh and into Telangana. West of the trough, the winds are sharply SSE, and run thru the Delhi region. Its temporary for a few days and winds will be Southerly in Delhi for a couple of days.
NW winds will occur once SWM withdraws and the WD effect starts.

Ishan Vajpeyi said...

Thank you very much Rajesh Sir for this valuable piece of information.

abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,an only question when will monsoon withdraw from mumbai and north konkan?

Vijayanand said...

Seems like september showers are likely to start in bangalore this week. Very dry September so far.

rajesh said...

Vijayanand: Bangalore can expect thundershowers next 2 days.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology.

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 27 September 2016

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.
 
Strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole continues to dominate
A persistent and strong negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), combined with a La Niña-like pattern of warm seas around northern Australia, continue to be the major drivers of Australian climate. 

Temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean continue to be below average, but remain El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral. Most international climate models surveyed indicate the Pacific is likely to remain at ENSO neutral levels through to the end of 2016, though one international model suggests a La Niña late in the year is possible.

Some indications of atmospheric coupling have emerged in recent weeks. August was the first month to show persistent below-average cloud around the Date Line (typical of La Niña), and this pattern has continued during September. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded La Niña thresholds for the past two weeks. Hence the ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH.

Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures to Australia's north and east, and the broader southwest Pacific Ocean, strengthened over the past fortnight and may be contributing to some La Niña-like impacts. Likewise, a very strong negative IOD persists in the Indian Ocean and is also increasing the likelihood of wet conditions over Australia. Models indicate the IOD will return to neutral levels by the end of spring. Spring in eastern Australia is typically wetter than average during a negative IOD (and La Niña).

Next update expected on 11 October 2016

Nilay Wankawala said...

Cumulative RF till 26.09.2016 845.2 MM against 870.1 MM- Departure 3.00% negative side- 4 days to go .....

Nilay Wankawala said...

RF figures Credit IMD- Apology for not giving due credit earlier comment

Rajiv Kumar said...

Thunderstorm with rain in Bangalore now...

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