Wednesday, September 21, 2016



Posted Tuesday Night:

Mumbai received intermittent showers on Tuesday Night and Wednesday. From 8.30 am - 8.30 pm IST on Wednesday, Colaba measured 99 mms and Scruz 57 mms. 

On Thursday, Mumbai city will get marginally less rains as experienced on Wednesday. Less frequency passing showers, not continuous,  will measure around 40-60 mms from Thursday Morning - Friday morning. (Less Compared with Wednesday figures). 

Northern Outer townships have received the brunt of the heavy rains recently. They will get much reduced rainfall next 2 days.

Friday: Frequent showers, some heavy. Though not intermittent or continuous, the rainfall will be almost the same as Thursday amounts.

Pune: Few light showers on Thursday, rain frequency increasing to 15-20 mms on Friday. Cool days.

All Lakes supplying water to Mumbai on the brim now, 99% full. Mumbai has water storage for 385 days, i.e. till 11th October 2017 !!..Lakes Info from Vagarian Jayesh Mehta.
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A low from the Bay will cross the AP coast on Thursday/Friday. An extended upper air trough from the system will cross the South Konkan coast , forming by Saturday. Increasing rains in South Konkan and Goa from Saturday. More on this later.

South West Monsoon may withdraw from Saurashtra by 24th September.

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Mumbai: From Tuesday mid night till  Wednesday mid night, Colaba received 113 mms and Scruz 75 mms.Vagaries measured 89 mms.
Estimate given for 24 hrs ended midnight Wednesday was "More rains for Mumbai Tuesday Night...70-90 mms from Midnight Tuesday next 24 hrs...Posted Tuesday Night"
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35 comments:

Nilay Wankawala said...

so quick release of figures - keep it up

Vijith Menon said...

Thanks Rajesh Sir for update - Till when is this activity likely to persist?.

sset said...

so much of water for konkan - now time to link konkan rivers of Maharastra with coastal KAR and KERALA (no water)!

parshuram shinde said...

After 4pm raininh heavy to medium in santacruz...

sset said...

Taken from Kea weather blog...
GFS shows extreme rains over konkan till mid-october!

What will happen to MAHARASTRA and drought for worst drought for south India!

Harnai nearing 7000mm !
Dhanu nearing 4000mmm !

Some body has blogged in kea...

GOD has forgot to close water TAP over MUMBAI/MAHARASHTRA!!!!!!



sanjeev Gokhale said...

sir,awaiting for forecast for coiming days in this week.Will it rain heavy in mumbai?? rain has gone down here in mulund mumbai north east.Thanks.

GSB said...

Finally after two years of sub-800mm all India rainfall, today we crossed the 800mm mark !! Still there is a 5% deficit that need to be covered..with only 9 days to go for the official monsoon season to end it looks difficult that we will fill this deficit...

KHYATI PANDIT said...

When is your next forecast.. It rained here heavily from 7 pm to 7 30 n whole day on off very heavy rained

Unknown said...

This SWM in Mumbai and Maharashtra seems to be a classic all time best. The pattern, steadiness of the rain through the season with a dry spell in between has been wonderful to behold. Reminds me of the monsoon in the 70s. And as we go to the season close, it seems to be ending with a flourish. Nature at it's spectacular best !!

Suresh

Nilay Wankawala said...

Got smile on my face while reading GSB sir comment/ ovservation that we are crossing 800 mms after 2 years albeit rare possibility season won't be able to wipe off current defect till 30.09.2016 the official date for closure of season irrespective of fact whether monsoon has withdrawn or not.

sset said...

GSB this calculation is totally wrong...
Major contribution to this rain is Maharashtra and central India....
Southern India totally deficit so how come we can say all India average... results are skewed.

Nilay Wankawala said...

@ sset, IMD measures rainfall all over the country as a whole and average is worked out on the basis of the same. It might happen surplus of one state gets distributed to other state or districts deficit or deficits of other get compensated by surpluses of another district or states. I guess it's law of averages- simle mathematics at work. Even if results are skewed it will be taken as normal monsoon as a whole. GSB sir has been absolutely right on his observation as per standards set by IMD.

GSB said...

Much is being made of a deficit in Southern India for the past few years in the comments section...so lets analyse this with facts, and not some rhetoric based on a globally ill defined and very confusing concept of "Global Warming",environmental destruction/degradation and reduction of tree cover etc.

I have taken rainfall figures from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology starting from the year 1871 (upto 2014)...and to focus on the southern peninsula figures we look at their "Peninsular" numbers under the All India and Macro Regional data set. (It includes six subdivisions namely Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, TN & Pondicherry, Coastal AP ,S I Karnataka and Kerala - all the areas presently underperforming in this monsoon)

I am just summarizing here (I will present detailed analysis,including NEM figures, on the main blog later);

For PENINSULAR INDIA:

THE WORST RAINFALL in the Monsoon period.. 404mm was in the year 1918.

The BEST RAINFALL in the Monsoon period .. 938mm was in the year 1878.

Now before we get excited here are a few more facts...

THE TOP TEN YEARS have a Monsoonal Average of 865.5mm and THE THIRD BEST IS IN 2007
(885mm) !!!

THE WORST TEN YEARS have a Monsoonal Average of 485mm and THE THIRD WORST IS IN 2002 (434mm)...

But, and here comes the shocking part...NINE of the TEN WORST YEARS IN PENINSULAR INDIA WERE BEFORE 1972...!!!!!

FOUR were in the NINTEENTH CENTURY !!! Out of the remaining five, three were before 1934 the other two being 1952 and 1972.

Of the BEST YEARS too six were in the 20th century and three in the Nineteenth century..

So what so we make of this? There is nothing in the data which shows that Peninsular India is getting deficient rainfall..the best and worst years are all in the 20th century (except two..2007 and 2002).

Data for 2015 has not been updated by the Institute..I don't think one year in 144 years will make any difference..

So in conclusion the All India Rainfall numbers have their relevance...the monsoon does not look at borders or political decisions..and the fact that it has hovered around this 850 to 900mm number from June to September for almost one and a half centuries (surprisingly almost the same time period is used by the Global Warming community for their data).

((Thanks to IITM for the data...))

GURVINDER

GSB said...

the best and worst years are all in the 20th century (except two..2007 and 2002).

Please read : the best and worst years are all in the 19th and 20th century (except two..2007 and 2002).

Just did one more quick number crunch..the average for all these 144 years is 660mm.
The average for this century (2001 to 2014) is 646mm. A difference of 14mm or 2%..

2%!!! That's it.

Gurvinder

Hrishikesh said...

Massive thunderstorm in western suburbs it's raining like waterfall with lightning and thunder and wind

KHYATI PANDIT said...

It rain like madly in Mira road from 5am to 7am ...with lots of thunder n lightening.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Heavy downpour flooded the streets early in morning borivali west. GSB sir has been wonderful to quench the thirst of data lovers in this rainy season.

anant said...

Hi GSB ,

Excellent analysis , but i am sorry to say this will make no impact on SSET , he/she will continue to say the same thing , the best way to deal with him/her is to ignore him , by responding to him with facts , will encourage him/her to repeat the same thing over and over again .

Regards, Ananth

sset said...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Maharashtra-Dahanu-gets-529mm-rain-a-58-year-record/articleshow/54454348.cms

Main culprit this SWM is when ever bay low used to form, same time UAC used to form either over konkan or south GUJ -> in fact this happened all 5 occasions leaving southern india completely dry.. what if this happens next year also?

GSB - statistically u are correct -- but for layman it is difficult to correlate such low rain in south with happy overall figures!

Augumbe coastal KAR - only 4mm yesterday
Kerala 0 mm.

Shivkumar Mogal said...

Sir, What is forecast for Nashik region? Yesterday east part of Nashik district recorded moderate to heavy rainfall. Any chances of rain in coming days?

sset said...

Torrentials back - seems PEN (350 mm), Virar (200 mm) what is happening?? IMD issues flood alert... Looks like september has become july....

sset said...

soon Santa Cruz all set to cross 3000mm in a day or two, Colaba will follow like a loyal,faithful dog.....Mumbai many schools closed.

sset said...

KONKAN - > IMD issues RED alert from thursday today - saturday (extreme rains)!!!! This is first time for SEPTEMBER almost entire konkan/MAHA is receiving multiple 3 digit rains...

Nilay Wankawala said...

source : IMD

PRESS RELEASE
New Delhi, 21 September, 2016
Earth System Science Organization (ESSO)
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
India Meteorological Department (IMD)

Forecast Outlook for the 2016 NE Monsoon Season (October–December)
Rainfall over South Peninsula

Background

The south Peninsula consisting of five subdivisions (Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka) receives about 30% of its annual rainfall during the NE monsoon season (October to December). Tamil Nadu in particular receives about 48 % of its annual rainfall during this season. Due to this important fact, IMD has been preparing experimental forecasts for NE monsoon season rainfall over south Peninsula since 1998 using statistical models. IMD also continuously works to improve the skill of the forecasting models. For preparing the quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for NE monsoon season rainfall over the south Peninsula, a 5-parameter Principle Component Regression (PCR) is used. Similarly a 4- Parameter PCR model is used for the forecasting season rainfall over Tamil Nadu.

IMD operational forecast for the 2015 North-east monsoon season (October-December) was that the northeast monsoon season rainfall over south Peninsula (Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka) is most likely to be above normal (>111% of long period average(LPA)) and that over Tamil Nadu is most likely to above normal (>112% of LPA). The realized 2015 NE monsoon rainfall (Oct-Dec) over South Peninsula was 132% of its long period average (LPA) and that over Tamil Nadu was 152% of its long period average (LPA). Thus both the forecasts for 2015 were accurate.
Now the forecast for the 2016 North-east monsoon season rainfall has been presented below:
ENSO & Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Conditions Scenario

The Monsoon mission coupled model forecast suggests current weak La Nina conditions over equatorial east Pacific turn to cool neutral ENSO conditions during the NE monsoon season. Similarly model also suggests the current weak negative IOD conditions are likely to continue during the NE monsoon season.

Operational forecast for 2016 North-east monsoon season Rainfall over South Peninsula

Operational forecast for the 2016 North-east monsoon season (October-December) rainfall over south Peninsula (Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka) is most likely to be normal (90% -100% of LPA). The LPA of the North-east monsoon season rainfall over the south Peninsula for the base period 1951-2000 is 332.1mm.

The 2016 North-east monsoon season rainfall over Tamil Nadu is most likely to be normal (90%-100% of LPA). The LPA of the North-east monsoon season rainfall over the Tamil Nadu for the base period 1951-2000 is 438.2mm

abizer Kachwala said...

Do you think rajesh sir,it will rain the same heavy in 72hrs?

Akshay Shah said...

Amidst all this, it is heartful to know that NEM is predicted to be normal for southern peninsula. I am getting a feeling that this will materialise and at the end of this year India will be having a good combo of SWM and NEM. I am positive that rain gods will support this prediction. Mumbai Maharashtra has been blessed this year with bountiful monsoon. But what about the water that is going waste in Arabian Sea. Such a huge waste of drinking water. Last 2 years were dreadful for Mumbai but this year has been such awesome that we will remember for years to come. I guess we approaching 500 mms for September. With this we may cross July rainfall figure in September. Hope that in this immediate round spread in more even in south India and west India read: Gujarat.

sset said...

Harnai, Mahabaleshwar racing towards 7000 mm leaving Augumbe far behind by 2000 mm !!

Nimish Thaker said...

I think Thunderstorms are in store for Mumbai over the next 2 - 3 days. Looking at the satellite image it does look likely later tonight / early tomorrow morning. This is due to the approaching LPA. What say Rajeshbhai?

Vijayanand said...

GSB, thanks for the wonderful data.
SSET is a disgrace to all weather lovers. He has already got substantial bad name to the blog.

sset said...

Still onset of NEM is a big question... many parameters have to reverse.
New low is about to cross MAHA - another 1 week of torrentials falls for MAHA.
GFS shows central India rains till mid-oct...

Dahanu racing towards 4000mmm!
Harnai excess by 5000mm, Dahanu excess by 2000mm, Mahabaleshwars excess by 1500m - very rare to 4 digit excess figures Mumbai soon to be excess likely 1000mm

By the Navi Mumbai heavy pounding started after taking quick tea break of - 30 minutes!

Cumulus Arjun said...

Moderate intensity Thunderstorm lashing here in goregaon Mumbai western suburbs since 8:30 in the evening

Abhijit said...

Palghar district extreme event for September 2016 !!

Dahanu recorded recorded massive 1170mm for Sep till today is highest.. Followed by Palghar 723mm..

And on other hand in same district on foothills of Western ghat places has received very less rainfall in same period !!

Mokhada only 171mm, Wada 173mm, Jawahar 201mm & Vikramgad 216mm for Sep is lowest in district.

All above places has got mere 10% of Dahanu rainfall in 22 days period of Sep !!

So this is called as Vagaries of the weather

rajesh said...

arjun/NT: Yes, after a day of almost no rain on Thursday, some rain at night could bring the 40-60 mms expected by us :-)

Sarvesh said...

When will monsoon withdraw from Mumbai, dahanu, Kokan etc ab bas hogaya

Animish Masurkar said...

Heavy thunder storm at Andheri