Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Mumbai Water Supplying Lakes Position as on 6th on Mumbai Page

Posted Tuesday 6th Afternoon:
Mumbai: Getting warmer from Tuesday, and the day temperature can touch 36c on Wednesday.
Tuesday may just get thundery developments in the Eastern sky (weak), but chances of rains diminishing from Thursday.
Pune may get a Shower in some parts till Wednesday. 

The UAC in the South East Arabian Sea will descend as a Low by Tuesday night. Initially around 1006/1008 mb.
This will deepen by Wednesday 7th and Thursday 8th, and after tracking along the West coast of India till about 15N, may move towards NW.
Heavy Rainfall in Kerala, Coastal Karnatak and some regions of Goa on Tuesday 6th /Wednesday7th /Thursday8th.
Thunder showers a plenty for Bangalore all through this week.


The SWM has withdrawn in all regions North from Gujarat, M.P. North Chattisgarh and Bihar.


Alongwith this Arabian Sea Low, the Monsoon axis, both ends, will slip South of Maharastra. As the axis moves Southwards, the SWM starts retreating, and The NEM conditions start strengthening. See 200 stream chart.(Shall put up a note soon on NEM).

Chennai too will be seeing almost daily thunder showers this week.


The UAC over North Bay off Odisha coast has formed, but, due to un favourable land winds, may not intensify. System as an UAC will track North into Bangladesh by Thursday or Friday.
Kolkata may get the last thunder showers on Wednesday and Thursday.Monsoon could be withdrawn after the system dissolves.


New Delhi remains hot this week, around 36/37c. But we may see the nights getting cooler to around 20c by the weekend.

13 comments:

Hari said...

What is the final tally of water supplying sources?

rajesh said...

hari: See Mumbai Page

Unknown said...

Rajesh is there a possibilty that the UAC in the Arabian Sea could travel along the West Coast all the way to Gujarat ? Suresh

rajesh said...

Suresh: As of now, i maintain my forecast..Low will deepen and travel along coast till Goa, and then turn North-West into the Sea. Will inform immediately if there is change. If no mention is made, forecast remains valid.

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,
How direction of a low or cyclone is defined.is it related to rotation of the earth?

sset said...

Last thing to happen is low over orissa Bay to move NW (MP/MAHA/GUJ/RAJ) and low over AS to move north east into GUG/PAK/MAHA - we will be in middle of SWM (phase 2) !!!

Vijayanand said...

Mon evening rain was heavy in east bangalore [outer ring road].
Bellandur: 55 mm
Devasandra : 45 mm
KR puram : 29 mm
Ram murthy nagar: 42.5 mm

North bangalore:
Jakkur airbase: 42 mm , Horamavu 26 mm , Kempegowda ward 70 mm

But not much in CBD areas.

So two back-to back days of heavy rains.

rajesh said...

sset: You have been commenting in Vagaries almost since inception of Vagaries. We also understand you are a keen weather enthusiast, and read and follow many a weather blogs. In fact many Indian and foreign weather depts and blogs acknowledge your comments.
At Vagaries, it was stated that to be more personal and close, we must not write or comment in "hidden" names, but give our name frankly and be more open. "sset" now remains the only comment writer with an unknown I.D.
Your views and comments are welcome, but please give and identify yourself with your name.
Thanks.

sridharrajagopalan said...

i guess SWM is already 60% out of mumbai...both the lows seems to be a remote possibility to come close to Mumbai... What Say Rajesh..??

Narayanan Ky said...

Rajesh sir your forecast for Chennai rain has been spot on today

rajesh said...

Vinod Desai: The track of a system is not much affected by the rotation of the earth. Tracks are monitored by upper winds, jet streams, wind shear and many other factors.
In the Northern Hemisphere, wind from high-pressure systems pass low-pressure systems on the right. This causes the system to swirl counter-clockwise. Low-pressure systems usually bring storms. This means that hurricanes and other storms swirl counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, storms swirl clockwise.

Narayanan Ky: Thanks for the rare feed back from Chennai.

sridharrajagopalan:...I had mentioned a few days ago of Monsoon moving out of Mumbai...and had given rough dates also. SWM should move out as the vapour decreases..and OLR becomes favourable. Will keep you informed (on blog).

Narayanan Ky said...

Rajesh sir I'm an avid follower of your blog to understand Monsoon vagaries..Chennai being in rain shadow mostly receive sporadic rains as thunderstorm only which are hit or miss types...even nem is like that.will acknowledge hereafter on Chennai rsins

Vinod Desai said...

Thank you sir for the explanation.