Thursday, October 22, 2015

Posted Thursday Night:


NEM:
Normally, MJO activity is very much subdued or is virtually absent during the maxima of some El Niño episode.
Currently, the Madden- Julian Oscillation (MJO) is seen strengthening ( slightly to neutral stage) in our seas from the 26th...and its effect could last till around 5 th November. 

The existing UAC in the Southern Bay, embedded in an Easterly trough, will in all likely hood descend as a Low, and deepen . The system should track North towards Tamil Nadu.
NEM is likely to set in by the 28th of October. 
Good rains are likely, as the rains push into interior TN.

Chennai: Getting ready for the NEM rains...starting from Tuesday 27th and gradually increasing to downpours by Thursday 29th. Heavy thunder showers on Wednesday night. Thursday could accumulate  around 50 mms in 24 hrs.

Western Disturbance O-4 to precipitate rains in the lower regions of Kashmir and plains of NW India from 24th ...and snow in the middle hills of Kashmir and higher reaches of H.P.

Srinagar will be cold and rainy on Saturday 24th and Sunday 25th, with day temp going down to around 12-14c. About 35 mms rain expected on these 2 days.
Punjab and adjoining Haryana can get medium showers.

As the induced Low forms in the WD trough, the location is around Punjab region. The NE movement of this Low may just about bring light rains on 26th/27th to the Delhi region.
Light to medium rains likely in North Pakistan this weekend. Islamabad will be cool with rains this weekend.

Mumbai: Very marginal drop to 36.4c on Thursday, and 23.6c as minimum. Should see a change for the better now as WD moves in.

4 comments:

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,
Does el nino impact the winter as well in india or else where ?

Narayanan Ky said...

Thanks for your NEM coverage sir

sset said...

Apart from AS low (same was seen last year 2014 just before NEM was about to organize), WD arriving promptly for NW India ... all deep barriers for NEM onset.

Saurabh Dwivedi said...

In North India plains, there has been a gradual drop in day temperatures in the last few days and now there has been a steep drop in night temperature in the last couple of days.Here are some night temperatures from last night
Hissar 14.7
Amritsar 15.2
Lucknow 15.5
Gorakhpur 15.6
Delhi 17.3(NCR will be lower than this)

With the western disturbance moving in the temperatures should rise and then dip again.