Wednesday, October 07, 2015

Posted Thursday Night:
Cloudy and light rain in Mumbai on Saturday. Sunday will be hazy.

1. AS-2 is now located as a Well Marked Low ( 1004/1005 mb) West off the Karnataka Coast.

Will track North initially and then WNW. AS-2 will strengthen to 1000 mb, and as it tracks WNW, it will encounter dry air.  

Repeat Forecast: Heavy rains on Friday and Saturday along Karnataka coast. Moderate rains in South Konkan.
Interior regions of North Konkan may get some (Light) showers on Saturday.

Light showers in parts of Pune on Saturday and Sunday.

2. Well Marked Low (1004 mb) in the Bay now lies over the Delta South Coast of Bangladesh, West of Chittagong. Heavy rain areas now concentrated along SE Coast of Bangladesh.


Expected to track Eastwards into Tripura, Manipur, where heavy rains will occur.

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Posted Thursday Afternoon (8th October):

1. The Low in the Arabian Sea (AS-2) mentioned in previous posts, has remained off the Karnataka/North Kerala coast. System is likely to strengthen by Thursday evening to the next stage i.e. a Well Marked Low. Currently at 1002 mb.


AS-2 will track a bit North till 15N, and then veer towards the W/NW direction, moving away from the Indian Coast. It will strengthen more to the next stage in the sea.

2. The Bay Low remains a Low at 1006 mb, and is likely to cross the Bangladesh coast by Friday morning.Currently just off the Bengal Coast.

Rains decreasing in Kolkata from Sunday.

Mumbai: Hot day on Thursday and Friday, with hazy skies.Saturday will be partly cloudy, with light rains in some parts of city.
Sunday will be clear and dry.


Chennai: Some thunder showers in Chennai till Saturday, or maybe a hit and miss chance on Sunday. Rainfall decreasing from Monday.Winds turn Easterly.
Bangalore gets the usual thunder showers this weekend also.

Thursday 8th and Friday 9th: Heavy rains likely in Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and S.I. Karnataka. Heavy rains in Odisha and Gangetic W.Bengal on Thursday.

Saturday 10th :
Heavy rains in Coastal Karnatak and moderate rains in Goa and South Konkan.
rainfall decreases in Odisha and Bengal.

Sunday 11th: Rainfall decreases along West Coast. Parts of S.I. Karnataka get Thunder showers.

South West Monsoon Withdraws from Vidharbh and Chattisgarh.

8 comments:

vikas malik said...

Will indore and Ujjain will get any rain from this 2 low pressure areas,,, West MP

rajesh said...

vikas: no rains possible for MP

Nandan Corporation said...

Any Rain Chance in Gujarat Next couple Days.

abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir ,due to poor internet connectivity ,I cannot blog everyday.i visit vagaries page everyday.so please in every forecast note mention nagothane ,roha regions too.

Narayanan Ky said...

Good news to know on easterlies soon in south.In SE coast of india easterlies bring pleasant weather and rains

Nilay Wankawala said...

CREDIT : IMD

Time of issue: 0830 hours IST Dated: 09.10.2015
Bulletin No.: ARB03/2015/01

A depression has formed over eastcentral Arabian Sea and lay centred at 0530
hours IST of today, the 9th October, 2015 near latitude 14.00 N and longitude 70.30 E,
about 410 km west-southwest of Goa and 630 km south-southwest of Mumbai. It would
move initially north-northwestwards and intensify into a deep depression within next 24
hrs.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur
over coastal Karnataka and Kerala during next 24 hours.
Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph would prevail along
and off Karnataka, Konkan and Goa coasts. Sea condition would be rough.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into deep sea along and off Karnataka, Konkan
and Goa coasts

Nilay Wankawala said...

CREDIT : IMD
Time of issue: 1400 hours IST Dated: 09.10.2015
Bulletin No.: ARB03/2015/03

Sub: Depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea.

The depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea remained practically stationary for the
past 6 hours and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of today, the 9
th October, 2015 near latitude 14.00 N and longitude 70.30 E, about 410 km west-southwest of Goa and 630 km
south-southwest of Mumbai. It would move initially north-northwestwards slowly and
intensify into a deep depression during next 48 hrs.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur
over coastal Karnataka and Kerala during next 24 hours and over Konkan and Goa during
subsequent 24 hrs.
Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph would prevail along
and off Konkan, Goa and Karnataka coasts during next 48 hrs and along and off Kerala
coast and Lakshadweep area during next 24 hrs. Sea condition would be rough.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into deep sea along and off Karnataka,
Konkan and Goa coasts during next 48 hrs and Kerala coast and Lakshadweep area
during next 24 hrs

Narayanan Ky said...

Chennai rains again happening every evening as predicted by you sir...