Saturday, October 10, 2015

Next Details at 11.30 pm IST Saturday

AS-2 now a Deep depression, but having moved very little to the West. Located 15N and 69.1E...996 mb.

Posted Saturday Noon IST:

AS-2, as a Depression with winds at around estimated 30 knts, with concentric 2 mb difference isobars. Core winds are estimated to be around 28-30 knts and pressure 996 mb.

Will soon strengthen to a Deep Depression




Currently 460 kms WSW off Goa and 550 kms S/SW off Mumbai( 15N & 69.6E )Actual rainfall region and convective area small.

Tracking NW to WNW now and encountering surrounding dry air.As the system tracks WNW, it will encounter the dry air around Monday (the dry air to its West). Will Weaken gradually after 48 hrs ( Monday).

A system (Low) may traverse towards Oman, and Muscat may see rain on Tuesday/Wednesday.

6 comments:

Unknown said...

Rajesh, I like the confidence in the way you put your neck on the line with your gutsy forecasts. While the weather has "vagaries", you have no vagary in your reporting. And this season you have been spot on, most of the times and that too in a complex El Nino monsoon year.Way to go ! Cheers, man and would like to buy you a cup of coffee on that !!!
Suresh

sset said...

Another feather to Rajesh sir cap... Skymet initially predicted low over AS to move NW then probable recurve NE towards GUJ resulting torrential rains...but vagaries accurate move of low over NW turns out to be towards target !!

sset said...

From Rohits map - Mt.Abu (RAJ) receiver more rain than Mumbai - Defies all rules of desert!! SE India (Rayalseema,TN,interiors of some parts of KAR) are seriously lagging - what is in store for NE monsoon??

Karan Kumbhar said...

Heavy thundershowers in pune now since past 30 min.

KHYATI PANDIT said...

When will it rain in Mumbai. Extremely hot

sset said...

JTWC announces Arabian sea system 91A as cyclone now 03A. Pressure at 996mb, winds max 65kmph. #weather - from weathermanblog ! It is unfortunate that this low which was anchored off coastal KAR / KER coast for many days did not produce any intense spells (> 200mm - 400-500mm). This would have been last chance to cover huge -ve defeciences for coastal KAR/KER.