Wednesday, July 01, 2015

U.K's Hottest July day ever...and Western Europe Heat wave ...see International Page
New Delhi: Palam touches 40.3c and Gurgaon 40.0c on Thursday...S'Jung 38.9c.----------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted Wednesday Night:...1st July

How is the South West Monsoon going to behave in July ?


1. MJO: the current phase of very weak MJO in our seas is prevalent, and with a slight "blip" in the Northern region seen thru OLR images, we see the Northern Bay showing signs of of a UAC formation soon. UAC may effect Eastern States of India and the NE States with precipitation in first week of July.


Rains increasing in Kolkata from Sunday 5th.


But the weak MJO phase ( Though gradually moving out of the very weak phase) in the Southern seas continues  and without any Eastward propagation for the next 10-12 days.

Long Term forecasts show the MJO "improving", that is first getting "Neutral" by around 14th July, and then gradually strengthening after 17th July.

As a result, we have a strong MJO wave in the Western pacific. We may even see a typhoon form in the Western Pacific next week.


2.El Nino: This event has strengthened in the last 15 days. SOI is at -9.0. and the Central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature indices are more than 1 °C above average for the sixth consecutive week.


3. The Monsoon axis remains North of its normal position till the 8th at least.Rains expected in Eastern U.P, Bihar and Sikkim and Himalayan W.Bengal next week.


4. A WD moves into the Northern Sub Continent around 6th July. This would merge with the Western end of the Monsoon axis and bring good precipitation to Northern Pakistan and Northern India.


5. Next 8-10 days, Precipitation remains lower than normal in the Peninsula, Western Region, Central Region, NW region of India. Also in Central and Southern Pakistan rains will be below normal. Monsoon may move into remaining Sindh and Pakistan after 7th/8th July.


Monsoon remains weak in the Sub Continent (barring Eastern states of Odisha/Bengal and NE India. Barring extreme North Pakistan) in the first 15 days of July. Strengthening in the second half will see the rains recovering in the regions.


For All India, i would expects a 10% shortfall overall for July only. The current +ve figure of +16% would therefore fall.


Next 5 days in....

New Delhi: As the next 2 days get hot, maybe around 40c, we will see an increase in showers by Sunday and Monday.

Mumbai remains hot and cloudy, around the 33c-27c range. With no major rains developing till Sunday. Around 3 - 5 mms per day.


Pune remains in the 30-23c range till Monday, with light drizzles in some parts.


Aurangabad till Monday, remains dry and hot at around 34c, with minimum at 23c. Light drizzles in some parts.


4 comments:

Nilay Wankawala said...

Thanks for ur views and updates on July 2015.

hiren lakadia said...

O mm rain fall in katuch gujarat

Sachin Dhule said...

No rain in badlapur since last 8 days..

Pramod Bhagat said...

No Rain at Amravati from last 9 Days