Friday, July 17, 2015

Posted Saturday Night
In the last 6-9 hrs, the UAC ( At 850 hpa) in the axis has moved West..and was near Jhansi as on 8.30 pm IST Saturday...yes, Westwards !
Heavy rainfall is seen in the West, SW and south quadrants of the system.  System may move South/West and push the rain patch along with.

Several stations in M.P, Punjab, Delhi and parts of Eastern Vidharbh received very heavy to moderate rains on Saturday..
Major Rainfall in the 9 hrs ended 5.30 pm IST Saturday in cms... 
M.P: Shajapur­14, Bhopal­6 ( 75 mms till 8.30 pm), Ujjain­4,Shivpuri 3, Pachmari 3, Guna 3, Nowgong 2, Indore 2, Ajmer 1 Ratlam 1
Delhi (PLM) 3
Rajasthan: Jaipur5, Chittorgarh 4
Punjab:Ludhiana 3, Amritsar, Patiala,  

Maharashtra: Bhramhapuri 2, Mahabaleshwar­2 each ,


As on Saturday Afternoon, the UAC mentioned below in point 1(b)..has descended to 850 hpa level, and is near Chutrakoot (U.P). Will descend to sea level as a Low by Sunday morning.


To All Vagarians....



Posted on Friday 17th Night:

City Rain Estimate for Saturday and Sunday:
Mumbai: Saturday  will be cloudy, with passing showers (around 15 mms). Some showers can be heavy. Rainfall and windy conditions increasing by Sunday, around 30 mms or more.
Pune: Light drizzles in some parts or vicinity...days around 29c.

Kolkata: Rain and Thunder showers in many parts. 

Surat: Saturday /Sunday:Light rains upto 2-4 mms in the vicinity of Surat. Rains increasing from Monday.

Rain Estimate for Saturday and Sunday:

Very heavy rains likely in North Punjab ( > 50-70 mms/day in some places), and H.P. Heavy rains will occur in Delhi NCR (Average 20-25 mms/day), North and East M.P. and adjoining North Chattisgarh, 
Many parts of Odisha will get heavy rains. and moderate rains in adjoining Vidharb (Nagpur)
Scattered light rains in some pockets of North Gujarat and Saurashtra. Light showers also likely in many places of Interior Maharashtra.
Very heavy rains in Pak Punjab ( Eastern regions) and rest of Punjab get heavy showers. Light to moderate rains in Upper Sindh also possible.

Precipitation increases along the West coast. Heavy rains in South Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka.Strong winds of around 30-35 kmph along coast.

Weather Situation for the weekend, 18th and 19th July:
1. Monsoon axis runs along Pak Punjab  (west) and through Haryana, Southern U.P. and then the Eastern end forks into 2 parts...
a),. Running through the Northern Bengal/Sikkim thru into the NE States...and 
b). Another trough sloping SE from Eastern U.P. and into NE Madhya Pradesh/ North Chattisgarh and into Bay thru Odisha. An UAC lies embedded in this trough...and will descend to sea level as a Low in the same place  around the East M.P./Chattisgarh region. 
Low will track along the axis NW nearing Delhi by around 21st. 

2. As West winds rush in, the Off shore trough strengthens, and strong winds of up to 30-35 kmph expected along the West coast. 


15 comments:

gaurav raninga said...

Sir, if low tracked to nw near delhi from east mp then how much rain for saurashtra you expect from this?

Atul Naik said...

As forecast, Goa experienced squally weather in the evening today July 17. Vagaries Goa rain gauge at Margao recorded 40 mm in two hrs!

rajesh said...

gaurav: We will wait for the exact track, but if it goes as expected, then we see most rains in North Gujarat, and along the west coast till gujarat...some nominal increase in saurashtra from tuesday....now i would say around 20 mms in many places of saurashtra on tuesday.but correct intensity will be known by sunday.

Rajiv Kumar said...

if the low comes near delhi, will it give heavy rains to delhi like the previous low BB2? or the precipitation will be more towards SW quadrant (west mp/raj/guj) this time?
-RK

gaurav raninga said...

I think coastal districts of saurashtra may get some benefit from strong off shore trough. ...let's see. ..

Dattaraj Joshi said...

Any good news for interior Karnataka and Telangana ?

Anand Agarwal said...

will kolkata have thunder storm only or widespread rain for 2~3 days continously.

rajesh said...

Rajiv: Low is forming soon, but seems it will track South of Delhi...
Dattaraj: No meaning full rain in Telengana next 4/5 days, and some scattered showers in S.I. Karnataka next week.
Will keep posting of any developments.
Anand: Thunder showers in Kolkata as mentioned

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,
No rains in mumbai since morning..hopong that conditions improve and ghats and lake areas get heavy rain..


Eid mubarak to all vagarians..

Unknown said...

Akola receiving moderate rain

potey

Nilay Wankawala said...

Sir mumbai Western suburbs no significant rains today...hope situation wil improve atleast in catchment areas as we did not have meaningful rains there too yet...

santosh verma said...

bhopal gets heavy rain today 60mm till evening time and its raining nonstop till now.hope it will continue till monday.

rajesh said...

Nilay: still hopeful for Mumbai...

Nilay Wankawala said...

Nice to hear sir u being hopeful for mumbai... u always being the best amongst the rest. your forecasts always speaks for ur work...In last so many years many a times I felt u write the script nd rains performs..

sset said...

seems extreme rains for GUJ in place next week!!. June 650mm in 24hrs saurashtra Gir claimed 20 lions many animals lost lives.... Guess as of 2015 SWM this is highest pour in 24hrs...