Thursday, July 30, 2015

Posted Thursday Evening:
"Cyclone Komen" has crossed the Southern Coast of Bangladesh Thursday late afternoon.

Moving North currently, it has weakened  


will track N/NW  soon as it encounters the STR.

Kolkata has received 14 mms till 5.30 pm IST .
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Posted Thursday Noon:
IMD has announced BB-3 as a cyclone, due to "Intense low pressure system represented on a synoptic chart by more than four closed isobars at  2 hPa interval."
The cyclone Komen (BB-3), now formed lies 95 kms South West of Chittagong (Bangladesh), and around 300 kms East-South East from Kolkata.

And the Monsoon winds have helped in the formation of strong South quadrant convection and strong winds in the southern quadrant.Estimated core winds at 40 knts (International reading) and estimated core pressure at 989/990 mb.
 

Landfall would be on target, by Thursday (Today) afternoon at the Bangladesh Southern Coast. Heavy rains along Bangladesh and W.Bengal coast as well as Odisha coast, with winds around 40-50 kmph.
 

The initial track is North (briefly) and then track would then be W.NW , and weakening would start as explained last night.

9 comments:

sset said...

Very interesting citation from weather analyst

High-Impact Weather Events over the SAARC Region
special reference is for GUJARAT - become wetter every passing year with extreme events

https://books.google.co.in/books?id=J6-LBQAAQBAJ&pg=PA260&lpg=PA260&dq=gujarat++more+extreme+rains&source=bl&ots=VlqpDWh9x_&sig=yOy0vOMwYt2rcNypIkGLur2_u9M&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CFgQ6AEwCTgUahUKEwj8ydfoqoLHAhUHBY4KHbjvDJA#v=onepage&q=gujarat%20%20more%20extreme%20rains&f=false


Inverse relation exists for "South East India - closing towards desertification" - weakening of NEM currents every passing year. Guess somebody should perform similar research.

sset said...

It is quite possible increasing wetness of GUJ / RAJ can bring back lost "Saraswati River"

Abhijit said...

All unexpected happening as we term it as 'Vagaries of the Weather' !!

Few days back were surprise to see Low attaining Deep Depression stage that too on Land surface of desert SW Rajasthan..

Now unexpected cyclone Komen formation means at least by IMD parameters as other global agencies were expecting it but was feeling like IMD may not named it as cyclone !! Also it is rare thing to see Cyclone in peak July Monsoon period.

This rare event has come after 26 years !! As previous cyclone was seen on 22 July 1989 as per IMD cyclone eAtlas !!

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Come on sset sarsawati not gonna come

Nilay Wankawala said...

Sir very well presented Cyclone Komen. Appreciate the way you present your forecast and pains that you take behind every work you post.

rohit aroskar said...

Role reversal (Rajasthan-><-Arunachal,Assam)

For past few days .. Rajasthan desert cooler than north east Indian plains (Assam, Arunachal)
Desert and Kutch receiving astonishing amounts of rain .. 300 to 500 mms

------------------------------------------------------
Readings for 30 July 2015 (24 hrs ending 8.30 am) -
------------------------------------------------------
Itanagar-Arunachal: ( 37.6 c / 27.6 c )..0 mms

Jaisalmer-Rajasthan: ( 27.5 c / 23.4 c ).. 45.6 mms

rohit aroskar said...

29 Jul 2015 -> Cherrapunji(29.2 c max temp) .. also warmer than Jaisalmer (27.5 c max temp)

------------------------------------------------------
Readings for 30 July 2015 (24 hrs ending 8.30 am) -
------------------------------------------------------
Cherrapunji-Meghalaya: ( 29.2 c / 21.2 c )..0 mms

Jaisalmer-Rajasthan: ( 27.5 c / 23.4 c ).. 45.6 mms

santosh verma said...

cyclone in bay of bangal and DD in raj what is happning nowdays. weather is following the human nature of breaking the set of rules

sset said...

If we see recent 10 years trend NW regions receiving excess SWM + good amount of rains from WD (western disturbances) pre-post monsoon + weak NEM forms low over AS that too feeds into NW regions.. definite climate change pattern which is very visible....