Sunday, July 26, 2015

Monday Evening: Depression in Rajasthan has moved West, and lies on the International Border west of Jaisalmer...
On Monday, (from 8.30 am - 5.30 pm), Gandhinagar got 68 mms.

Today's (Monday) Rain:Mumbai Colaba received 14 mms and Santa Cruz 26 mms in 12 hrs fro 8.30 am Monday.
Bhuj received 108 mms in the same 12 hrs, ( taking the 36 hrs total to 180 mms in this desert town)..Ahmedabad 39 mms, Surat 14 mms.

Huge amounts of rainfall recorded in Rajasthan and Gujarat from the system...in cms...last 24 hrs ended 8.30 am IST Monday:
MOUNT ABU 45 (445 mms)
ABU ROAD SR 24,REODAR SR 21,ARTHUNA 19,SIROHI 15
GALIAKOT SR 12,DANPUR 11,BIJOLIYA SR 11,NAYANAGAR/BEAWAR 11,VEJA SR 11,BHAINSROADGARH SR 11

WEST RAJASTHAN: In CMS
GUDAMALANI SR 33,RANIWADA SR 32,JASWANTPURA 29,BHINMAL 22,BAGODA SR 18,BALI 17,CHOTAN 17,SINDERI SR 15
SANCHORE 15,DORIMANNA SR 13,DESURI 13,SUMERPUR SR 12,ERINPURA/JAWAI DAM 12,SAYLA SR 11

GUJARAT REGION:in cms
DADIAPADA_ARG 19,DHANERA 19,VAPI 18
MANSA 17,DAHEGAM 16,VIJAPUR 16,KANKREJ 16,VALIA 15,SIDDHPUR 15,SILVASSA 15,DANTIWADA 14
MANGROL 14,DANTA 14,VADGAM 13,HIMATANAGAR 13,PATAN 13,UNJHA 13,DHARAMPUR 13
AMIRGADH 13,GODHRA 13,PALANPUR 13,KAPRADA 12,MAHESANA 12,DANGS (AHWA) 12,KAMREJ 12,DEODAR 12

SAURASHTRA:In cms

JUNAGADH 19,JODIA 17,DASADA 15,BHESAN 14,JUNAGARH_AWS 13,MORBI 12,VANTHALI 12,VISAVADAR 12

Pakistan:
Karachi rains: Gulshan-e-Hadid 52, University Road 15, Faisal Base 20, Airport 14, Landhi 08, North Karachi 04, Saddar 03, Masror Base 02

BB-3 remains "in waiting" and as explained may start getting active after the other system in Western India starts weakening...Till then, BB-3 may stregthen in place.

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Rainfall Prominent amounts as on 24 hrs ended Monday 27th Morning:
Gujarat:
Valsad 99.0 mms, Deesa 98 mms, Gandhinagar 85.0 mms, Amreli 77.6 mms, Ahmedabad 72.3 mms, Bhuj 69.7 mms, Idar 59.4 mms,Vadodra 56.2 mms, Porbandar 55.6 mms, Surat 49.7 mms, Bhavnagar 39.1 mms, Rajkot 29.5 mms,
Sindh:
Sukkur 64.0 mms,Thatta 56.0 mms, Chorr 47.0 mms, Padidan 43.1 mms, Rohri 38.0 mmsHyderabad 28.9 mms, Dadu 26 mms, Nawabshah  24.9 mms, Karachi AP 14.4 mms, Badin 13.0 mms,


Weather on Sunday Evening:

1.The Low in Central India has deepened, and now a Well marked Low in East Rajasthan near Tonk. Likely to become a Depression and move West.
Very heavy rains likely in North Gujarat, parts of Kutch and adjoining South East Sindh. Can persist for 2 days Monday to Tuesday Night. Intensity decreasing in these regions from Tuesday Night as system weakens and dissolves.
Monday and Tuesday: Moderate rains likely in Saurashtra Region and East Gujarat Coast.

Mumbai: Monday and Tuesday see occasional showers. Rain amount will be around 20-25 mms/day.
Ahmadabad: Rains very frequent on Monday, decreasing on Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday accumulated rains around 100 mms.
Surat: Intermittent rain on Monday and decrease on Tuesday. Cumulative amount for 2 days around 70 mms.

Good heavy thunder showers, some very heavy, are likely in the Sindh regions of  Karachi, Hyderabad, Mirpur Khas and Sanghar. Rains will continue till Tuesday Night at least.
Around 70-75 mms on Monday and around 100 mms on Tuesday in regions of  Hyderabad, Mirpur Khas and Sanghar.
Heavy thunder rains in Sanghar region of Sindh on Monday. Tuesday also rains will continue, but a bit less.
Sukkar and Larkana gets moderate rains on Monday and Tuesday.

Karachi: Expecting very good showers for Karachi on Monday and Tuesday. Frequent rains on Monday should measure around 20 mms (avg), and again another 12-15 mms on Tuesday.


2. BB-3 is also strengthening fast, and having become a depression, is currently South of the Bangladesh Delta Region.

BB-3 now "in waiting",  will take course of track and strength seeing and depending on the behaviour of the other system in Western Sub Continent.
So, for the time being, as it waits for the other system to "shuttle out" , it will remain in the current position, and may just "shuffle around a bit" around the shores off Bengal. And of course, being a Bay system, will go on deepening.
Seeing the Western Depression, if it weakens around 29th, BB-3  may then start moving from the 30th towards the coast.

So, next few days, heavy rains along the Bangladesh, West Bengal and Northern Odisha coast. 

Chances of the usual Thunder showers in Kolkata..with increasing intensity, slightly, on Tuesday. Can expect around 25-30 mms on Monday and more on Tuesday. Further rainfall intensity will depend on BB-3, which in all likelihood, gears up on 29th/30th.

Delhi and North...all set up for hot days and almost dry from Monday..

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(Posted Sunday 6.30 pm IST) Sunday 9 hrs rain from 8.30 am onwards:
Kota 55 mms, Barmer 44 mms, Ahmadabad 36 mms, Jaisalmer 23 mms, Kolkata DumDum 20 mms, Surat 18 mms, Rajkot 13 mms.


Heavy Rainfall in the "Yellow" Region marked. Rain amounts in cms as on Sunday Morning:

WEST MADHYA PRADESH: in cms
Sarangpur 21, Ratlam (AWS) 20, Sailana 19, Biaora 17, Khilchipur 16, Lateri 15
Nalkheda 13, Rajgarh 12, Shujalpur 11, Susner 10, Narsingarh 9, Shajapur (AWS) 9

EAST RAJASTHAN: in cms
Aklera 24, Manohar Thana 22, Ramganjmandi 15, Jhalarapatan 14, Chipabarod 13, Jhalawar 12, Dug 11, Chabra 11
Asnawar 11, Bakani 9, Khanpur 8, Pachpahar 8, Danpur 8

GUJARAT REGION: in cms
Dharampur 18, Dadiapada (ARG) 18, Umerpada 17, Vyara 16, Valod 15, Songadh 14, Mahudha 14, Mahuva 13, Dabhoi 13
Pardi 11, Anand 11, Petlad 11, Mandvi 10, Sagbara 10, Ukai 10, Uchchhal 10
Matar 9, Mangrol 9, Dangs (Ahwa) 9
Umreth 9, Quant 9, Vansda 9, Bhabhar 8
Navsari 8, Kathalal 8, Dediapada 7, Nizer 7, Kaprada 7, Ankleshwer 7, 

Other Rainfall Regions with Heavy Rains.
In Kutch, Anjar got 16 cms.

Goa in cms
Dabolim N.A.S.- Navy 20, Marmugao 19, Ponda 17, Panjim 17 (Check Vagaries Goa for more)



30 comments:

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Imd forcast red warning for entire Rajasthan,west MP AND GUJ ! Amazing.EAST RAJASTHAN SEEMS TO BE WHERE MOST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TREVELLING IN LAST FEW YEARS

Nilesh Ladhad said...

Sir, what is source of today continous rain from 11.30am,trough or deep depression.
Some of the rain figures in blog are in mms,some in cms, others dont have . What to read

rajesh said...

Abizer: Your region, mentioned by you, would be cloudy with occasional showers on Monday...and Tuesday may be a bit less. Around 35 mms on Monday.

anant said...

Any hopes for pune from BB3 ?

Pune region still deficient by 30-40 %

Regards, Ananth

rajesh said...

anant..Pune will be cloudy with light rains in some parts of Pune...next 3 days

KHYATI PANDIT said...

Sir ht newspaper showed an article which say very heavy rainfor next 3 days in Mumbai which is different from your forecast

sset said...

Already Navi Mumbai non-stop cyclonic kind of rains!!!

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Sir,Delhi/NW will benefit from BB3 or not? Or will go through central india?

Muhammad Ali Dall said...

Rajesh sir how long this system will give rains in sindh???? is there any threat to sindh ???? is there any threat of rains like rajistan and MP in sindh????

Abhijit said...

Mount Abu in South Rajasthan recorded massive 444.6 mms rainfall ending 8.30am today in last 24hrs !!

sset said...

I have been to Mt.Abu 30 years back...Mumbai-Ahemdabad - Mehsana - Palanpur - Mt.Abu (during days of steam engine)...beautiful Mt.Abu - marble jain temples.... guess Nakki lake must be overflowing !!!!! Amazing RAJ.... so much rains every years....only problem with SE India....

sset said...

In best of years - seen during recent 10 years - Mt abu annual rain exceeds 2000 mmm !!! Central trajectory low over bay - orissa - MP - MAHA - GUJ - RAJ is always observed every year...in fact most of time monsoon is stuck here....keeping in all this account not sure why we still refer RAJ as desert state ...with udaipur as lake city (is correct bountiful monsoons is wiping desert landscape of jaisalmer giving raise to lakes !!!!?) Good for agriculture...

Wasim Athar said...

Why is the clouding associated with the depression over bay of bengal not visible in infra red imagery?

Wasim Athar said...

Why is the associated clouding with BB3 not seen in satellite imageries?

Vinod Desai said...

Record rains in north gujarat and kutch..

Abhijit said...

After Rajasthan desert it's Kutch desert now enjoying massive spells!! Bhuj recorded 245 mm rainfall ending 8.30am today in past 24hrs..

Anand Agarwal said...

what is the update on BB3. south bengal did not get heavy rain from this system. is there any chances and what is the route of the ayatem

SVT said...

Hi Rajesh! I wanted to ask this long time. There will be Depression in Bay this week that will move mostly westward but still west coast including Mumbai is forecasted to get not that much heavy rains atleast till next monday. Why is that? When low forms in bay and move westwards most of time west coast including Mumbai gets heavy rains. But sometime it doesnt. I saw this happen before. Any specific reasons for this?

sset said...

Gujarat Deesa 400 mm in 24 hrs. Seems multiples of 100s have become common for GUJ / RAJ. Now depression has become deep-depression....

Muhammad Ali Dall said...

Rajesh Sir when this system of rains in gujrat rajisthan Sindh will dissolve??? what will be its track now ????? which areas of rajisthan gujrat sindh are still under threat of heavy rains?????

Muhammad Ali Dall said...

according to television channel MIthi Sindh has received 250mm rains in 10 to 12 hours but pakistan meteorological department shown in its website as Mithi received 199mm

Muhammad Ali Dall said...

Rajesh sir please upload a detailed update of weather for Sindh, many people in Sindh are waiting for your update for SIndh

sset said...

while RAJ / GUJ receiving 3 digit rainfalls for multiple days .... South east Andhra - Rayalseema,Chittor,Ananthput are under soaring temperatures above 40 c !!! All these regions are in 3rd - 4th year of consecutive drought due to NEM failures...

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Only good thing for DELHI NCR for 2-3 days is lower night temp and lower humidity. Delhi rainfall surplus declining rapidly.

Mohsin mulla said...

Rajesh sir
plz update the mumbai lake level.because i thouht BMC hidding the lake level.from past one week mumbai lake area recieve bountifull rain so
plz update the latest any one.

Raj Katalkar said...

Sir, July is ending on a weak note for Coastal maharashtra including mumbai in terms of rainfall with jUST 2 days left. When heavy rains are possible in coastal maharashtra?

Srivathsa said...

https://wrd.maharashtra.gov.in/portal/portal/mwrd/15mwrdEmployees/5IrrigationManagement/5HydrologicalData/2Floods/5Storages for a daily status of reservoir levels. You can find Bhatsa and Vaitarna together and the rest of the BMC lakes data in one group.

Sarvesh said...

Over 6 months of water in mumbai lakes. Still some way to go.

sset said...

Next low over bay in pipeline - will it move west? GUJ/RAJ will end up in disaster.

rajesh said...

svt: This time BB-3 may be a bit weaker...but Mumbai does get rains from a Bay low, as a sometimes, if the west coast trough is strong, sympathy flow or a vortex is created exactly opposite the low along the west coast.

Lake levels will be put up on Thursday.