Mumbai: Monday 6th/Tuesday 7th/Wednesday 8th: Partly sunny to cloudy skies. A couple of passing showers in some areas will bring much needed relief. But, rain amount may not exceed 5-7 mms per day. stuffy nights continue.
Interior regions of Maharashtra (Madhya Mah, Marathwada and West Vid) will remain practically dry without meaningful rainfall till next 4 days.
Currently Hot and very hot days in the entire region...5th July...In Pakistan Moen jo Daro 47c and Larkana 46c....and Sri Gangannagar at 40.7c and 40.6c at Palam (Delhi). in India
The Monsoon axis is stubbornly fixed in the North, and the fresh WD ( JL-1) is preparing to proceed, come what may !
Time-series representation of the Summer Asian Monsoon OLR Index (SAMOI-N) indicating the meridional shift of the active convection area to the North
Monday 6th: As mentioned on 1st July, the Inter Action of WD ( JL-1) with the Monsoon axis starts from Monday 6th July. Northern Indian States of Punjab, Haryana, H.P. and Utterakhand get good precipitation on Monday 6th July.
As the day proceeds, rains become heavier by afternoon /evening in Indian Punjab, adjoining Haryana, West U.P. and Uttarakhand. Spill over into North Rajasthan possible. U.P. regions East of Delhi (Barielly) will be receiving heavy falls. Adjoining East M.P. can get showers also as the entire axis line is prone to rainfall.
Delhi NCR starts getting showers from Monday evening.
Tuesday 7th: Monsoon entering Northern Pakistan.
More concentration of heavy rains on Tuesday (more likely as the day progresses) in Pak Punjab. All regions in North Pakistan get heavy showers.
Gujrat (Pakistan) gets showers on Tuesday, amounting to around 15-20 mms on Tuesday.
Heavy falls in Nepal. Heavy rains also possible in Sikkim, leading to overflowing of local rivers downstream.
Rainfall in Indian NW regions may be a little less compared to Monday.
Delhi NCR will be cloudy with showers interspersed in the day. Around 30 mms Tuesday day and Night.
Wednesday 8th: The entire stretch from Pak Punjab thru Indian Punjab, Haryana, U.P, Uttarakhand and North Bengal get moderate rains.
Delhi NCR may get less rains also, but the intensity will be more on Thursday again.
From an already formed UAC,a Low ( BB-2) forms in the North Bay of Bengal on the 7th.
May concentrate in WML and maybe depression (992 mb), before crossing Odisha coast around 10th. But strength and Track depends on WD trough behaviour.
If JL-1 can bring down the Monsoon axis to the South near Rajasthan, then this BB-2 can possibly track West wards. If the persisting WD trough extends Eastwards, the BB-2 may head North. Vagaries is unsure of the track today.
West Coast trough remains weak next 4 days. Slight movements continue (seasonal). A "spurt" ...
1). In off Karnataka/Goa region will see increased rains in Goa on 7th and 8th. Maybe around 40 mms/day...and
2.) in the Northern end may bring some light rain relief to Saurashtra for a day on Tuesday/Wednesday.
Strong SW winds will continue in Saurashtra and Coastal South Gujarat next 3 days.
But most of Sindh (including Karachi) will remain practically dry and hot.temperatures may shoot to 46/47c next 2/3 days.
Chennai will continue to be very hot, around 40c next 2 days, with no meaningful rains till Thursday at least
Kolkata: Oh Calcutta ! And it goes on..Thunder showers again on Monday and Tuesday...around 15-20 mms average.