Sunday, July 19, 2015

Remember Last Week's Typhoon " Nangka"  ?.some Facts and Superb 3D Satellite Image see International Page

Posted Monday Night:
Low remains Stationary ..was expected to be so for 12 hrs since last posting..but merged in Axis

Rainfall on Monday (Daytime)..




Posted Sunday Evening:

A cold Sunday for Indore, with 98 mms from 8.30 am -5.30 pm IST, and the day's max at 23c....Bhopal saw 29 mms in the same time period.
Some heavy rainfall amounts in cms as on 8.30 am Sunday for West M.P.>.
NARSINGARH 39, UJJAIN-AWS 32, SARANGPUR 31, BADNAGAR 25, DEPALPUR 23, BADNAWAR 19, SHAJAPUR-AWS 17
VIDISHA-AWS 16, BHOPAL-AWS-ARG 15, RAISEN-AWS 14, GAUTAMPURA 13, INDORE-AWS 13, SARDARPUR 12, SEHORE-AWS 12
KUKSHI 11, SHUJALPUR 11, DHAR-AWS 11, BIAORA 11, DEWAS-AWS 10, KHACHROD 9, SONKATCH 9, THANDLA 9,
BUDHNI 9, TARANA 9, ALIRAJPUR-AWS 9, NUSRULGUNJ-ARG 8.

The UAC has now descended as a Low over North M.P. and adjoining U.P. (Not numbering it as BB-3, as it has originated on Land). System is likely to persist in same position for another 12 hrs, before merging with the Axis , somewhere near Guna.

Next 2 days Outlook:
Monday 20th:Heavy rainfall will persist in West M.P. for another 12 hrs. Rains will also occur in South Rajasthan and Eastern Gujarat. North Maharashtra region gets good rainfall. 
Expecting increased activity for Akola and Aurangabad district.

West coast from Surat to Kerala will see enhanced rain actvity. Subdued rains in Odisha. Gangetic Bengal, TN and interior Karnataka.

Tuesday 21st: Rainfall more likely in East Rajasthan and adjioing M.P. and Northern Gujarat.
Subdued in East M.P, Int Karnataka and TN.

Moderate rains spread to Coastal Sindh (Karachi) on 21st/22nd.

Mumbai: Having missed a good chance to see enhanced rains (due to certain adverse factors), I see no reason why Mumbai cannot get increased rainfall from Monday...city should get at least 30-40 mms on Monday and Tuesday, with thunder.

Pune: Monday and Tuesday has chances of moderate showers in parts of city. Around 7-10 mms possible in some areas.

Goa will continue to get Showers and monsoon weather with around 30 mms/day.
Surat:Rainfall increasing form Monday (maybe evening)...and good rains thru Tuesday. Would expect around 50-55 mms cumulative Monday and Tuesday.

Ahmadabad: Breaking a dry spell, Chances of thunder showers on Monday and Tuesday. Expecting around 20 mms/day.

Not much chances of rains increasing in Hyderabad (India) and Bangalore next 2/3 days.

Karachi and Hyderabad (Sindh) will get dry weather till Tuesday, but can expect a shower in the vicinity or around on Tuesday night or Wednesday. Around 5 mms.



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Posted Sunday Morning:
The UAC over Jhansi has moved West as shown in Super Imposed Image...and the Green Line shows the Upper Air Axis...
UAC will Track West/South West, and push the Cloud Quadrant likewise.


Ujjain received a massive 319 mms,  Bhopal 149 mms..Indore saw 129 mms,..More amounts as they come in

23 comments:

sset said...

GUJ rains fury 28 june 2015 - 650mm in 24 hrs!!

http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/8-lions-killed-in-gujarat-floods-over-30-big-cats-missing-from-gir/99628.html

More rains now in store.

Patel Sanni said...

Sir, Would this UAC bring rain in Gujarat ??? If than what could be the amount of rain.

Karan Kumbhar said...

Sir
will this southwest movement bring somr much needed rain in parts of maharashtra?

gaurav raninga said...

Finally it's time for gujarat. ...

Nilesh Ladhad said...

Can expect rain from this system in Valsad, a heavy one??

sset said...

North Konkan - Mumbai,Tarapur,surat,valsad,GUJ can be under extreme spells. If it rains like june in GUJ then entire GUJ will come in excess zone!!! Already IMD has put "orange: alert.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Source imd evening bulletin 19 07 2015

Rainfall:  (From  0830  hours  IST  of  yesterday  to  0830  hours  IST  of  today): 

Rain/thundershowers  occurred  at most   places   over  Jammu  &  Kashmir,  West  Madhya  Pradesh,  Madhya  Maharashtra,  west  coast  and Lakshadweep;    at  many  places  over  Himachal  Pradesh,  Punjab,  Haryana,  Chandigarh  &  Delhi,  East  Rajasthan, Nagaland,  Manipur,  Mizoram  &  Tripura,  Chhattisgarh,  Vidarbha,  Odisha  and  South  Interior  Karnataka;  at  a  few places  over  Uttarakhand,  East  Madhya  Pradesh,  Jharkhand,  West  Bengal  &  Sikkim,  Telangana,  Coastal  Andhra Pradesh  and  Andaman  &  Nicobar  Islands  and  at  isolated  places  over  Uttar  Pradesh,  West  Rajasthan,  Bihar,   Gujarat,  North  Interior  Karnataka,Tamilnadu  and  Assam  &  Meghalaya.  The  amounts  of  rainfall  (3  cm  or  more) recorded  at  0830  hours  IST  of  today  are:  Ujjain32;  Agumbe23;  Shajapur17;  Bhopal  &  Agathi15  each;  Raisen 14;  Indore13;  Canning  &  Dhar10  each;  Kozhikode9;  Hoshangabad8;  Madikeri7;  Manali,  Shirali  &  Amini  Devi6 each;  Hirakud,  Jaipur,  Chittorgarh,  Shivpuri,  Cannur,  Narsapur,  Carnicobar  &  Valprai5  each;    Golaghat,  Lengpui, Pachmari,  Honavar,  Karipur,  Mahabaleshwar,  Bhira  &  Bajpe4  each  and  Delhi  (Palam),  Patiala,  Panagarh, Gopalpur,  Narnaul,  Guna,  Rajgarh  &  Rajnandgaon3  each.

Vijayanand said...

Good rain in bangalore this eveing. It was a typical monsoon day. LOw clouds...light drizzle and heavy breeze. Hearing its raining cats and dogs in mangalore and udupi.

rajesh said...

Karan, Sanni, Nilesh...hope your question is answered..

santosh verma said...

this heavy rain spell for west mp is a boon. record breaking rain in ujjain and now whole city is under severe flood.hope tomorrow will be some respite from rain so conditions would ease off.

Anand Agarwal said...

kolkata did not get any rainfall on saturday and Sunday. any prediction forcoming weeki

Patel Sanni said...

Sir, Would it be heavy over gujarat like MP today or moderate ??

gaurav raninga said...

Sir, if low merged with axis then it followed to which level of axis? Upper or sea level?

Javed Ahmed Nizamani said...

Sir,
When will hyderabad sindh receive good monsoon rain.
City did not receive any healthy rain since last 3 to 4 year.

rajesh said...

Sanni: Rains will be heavy to moderate in the eastern region and in coastal belt (not saurashtra coast).
gaurav: Low means at sea level. So it will merge at axis at sea level. The upper axis may not remain.
Javed : expecting light showers in Sindh coast on Wednesday..

rajesh said...

Top 10 countries' Vagaries' Hits Today (Sunday)
India 1173, Pakistan 123, United States 104, Singapore 39, United Kingdom 25, Russia 22, United Arab Emirates 14, Kenya 13, Australia 11, Germany 8.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Sir nice to see number of hits...

SVT said...

From Monday onwards Mumbai will finally stats getting heavy rains. It should peak on wednesday.

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,
I had been to ratangad(bhandardara) on sunday and it was raining very heavily all day.It seems ghat have started getting good rains.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Sir lightening thundering and a very welcome continuous pouring of rains since early morning borivali dahisar ...looks July has set in ....lil late :-)

sset said...

Non stop torrential rains over Navi Mumbai / Mumbai since yesterday. It should have touched around 200 mm. Cold,windy. It seems trough over Arabian sea right next to Mumbai happily anchored.... With june kind of rains Mumbai will cross 1500mm by july end... Strategic logic of MAHA,GUJ,RAJ gets dual advantage both from BAY and Arabian systems...unlike SE India which is in every mercy of failing NEM monsoons. Even NW India has not seen any deficient/drought for last recent 10 years.jJuly...may end with 500mm which is double vagaries estimate of 250mm

sset said...

Mumbai Western line cancelled - central/harbour huge delays. GUJ in pipe line next to be pounded. Western coast trough strengthens. Unique 2015 SWM pattern - end of month last week rains pound..Aug may also be same. 2 spells of rain months quota done!!! There is always risk of circulation over Arabian sea to spawn next system backfire back on MAHA/GUJ similar june.

KHYATI PANDIT said...

say your forcast for mumbai for wednesday , thursday n friday