Nilofar has weakened to Cat 2 now...as on Wednesday night....form Cat 4 in 24 hrs.
Core winds drop to an estimated 90 knts, and estimated core pressure revised to 975 mb. Now, as expected, it has started its re curving, though still tracking N/NE, and is located at 19.9N and 63.5E.
#nilofar is tracking along the NW edge of the Sub Tropical Ridge, and will soon move along the Northern edge of the STR.
Tracking towards the targeted region, it will weaken more, and as mentioned by Vagaries, should make landfall near North Gujarat/Kutch on Friday 31st mid day as a depression.
En route, it is facing strong Vertical Wind Shear, 30-40 knts. But, we observe a strong Upper winds as Westerlies, which to an extent off sets the Vertical Wind Shear effect. Also, dry air has started encircling the system from the SE and East also.
On Thursday Night thru Friday, Winds around Kutch region and adjoining Lower Sindh would be around 60 knts. 110 kmph along the coast. Heavy showers likely in Eastern regions of Sindh Coast and Kutch. Dwarka and many places in Kutch can get very heavy rains on Friday 31st. Expected rainfall in many cities around 50-60 mms in Kutch.
Karachi: Almost constant in forecast as mentioned. Thunder showers with few heavy falls on Friday and into Saturday. Can expect around 20 mms in that period.
Heavy falls in South East Sindh from Thursday Night thru Friday. Expecting around 20-25 mms in the Thursday Night thru Friday night period.
A Low is expected to form off the North Tamil Nadu Coast on 31st October. Heavy rains are likely on Friday and Saturday (when Low crosses coast near Puducherry) in Chennai. We can expect around 40 mms in Chennai Friday evening thru 24 hrs. Heavy falls likely in Kanchipuram District.
Forecast for Thursday and Friday:
Mumbai: sunny and hot in the day...Day maximum around 34/35c..but nights cooler at 21c.
Surat: Cloudy with light rains in some parts on Friday/
Delhi NCR can expect cloudy weather with light rains in parts on 1st November