Sunday, October 05, 2014

Low Pressure report as on Monday Night: Located approximately at 11.3N and 95.3E..thus having moved NW, but core estimated pressure constant.
Expected to track NW, and then towards the Bengal coast. Likely to deepen 1001 mb on Tuesday and 996/998 by Wednesday...Next brief report on Wednesday 12 noon IST.
Torrential rains in Andaman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Mumbai will be hot at 34/35c on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thundery developments in the East over the ghats.Nights will be stuffy at a minimum of 26/27c...

Pune can get the thunder shower next 2 days also.


A Low pressure has formed in the Eastern Bay. Located on Monday afternoon at roughly 10.8N and 96E..core pressure estimates at 1004 mb...

An amateur's attempt at a brief Summary of the NEM...See NEM Page 

Current Weather Situation and Estimate ...Sunday Night..5th October  

An Easterly Wave stretching from Gulf of Siam westwards to the Central Bay has an embedded UAC around 95E and 10N.
Short Term: This system is expected to descend to sea level as a Low, and will be situated on the Bay Islands by the 7th . Could be around 1002 mb by then.

Medium Term: Low is expected to deepen to 1000 mb and track NW till 8th/9th. Could curve Northwards after crossing the 90E line. On deepening to 996/997 mb, would track northwards towards West Bengal or Bangladesh and cross by the 11/12th or nearby date.

More follow up tomorrow evening again....

An upper level WD will effect the Northern parts of the Sub Continent . The Northern States of Kashmir, HP will see snowfall on the upper and middle hills. Gulmarg and Pahalgam can get the first snowfall of the season. arts of Punjab and Haryana will get some showers on 7th and 8th. Light rains for Delhi on 6th night/7th.

Pak Punjab (Islamabad) will get their winter showers on 6th and 7th. An appreciable fall in temperatures expected. Most of Northern Pakistan will see a 2 day wet spell...

South West Monsoon Withdraws as shown in Map...5th October 2014

10 comments:

Krishnakumar Bulusu said...

Hi,

Again we have the same trend like last year. a system forming in the mid of october and heading in to orissa and bengal. This will disturb the NE monsoon winds...

so it is very unlikely that NEM would be good this time...delayed and weak

Rajesh Sir, please correct me if i am wrong

regards
Krishna

Krishnakumar Bulusu said...

Another Flop show for NEM , delayed and weak.

regards
Krishna

sset said...

Every time we say "this time" not good so "next time" will be good..nature cannot do this for 4 successive years unless underlying problem with NEM currents...So if this holds true then all readers who opposed warnings for desertification of South east India (Tamilnadu/Rayalseema/SE interior KAR)/Sri Lanka with massive climate change, increased rains over Gujarat/Rajisthan/central India-orissa - can give valuable comments. Remember it is 4th successive year of NE monsoon currents failure -serious damage for ecology of SE India.. it is time Modi govt along with cleanliness also act upon risks due to climate change - IITs/foreign collaborations are required.

Ron said...

not many ts this time around in Mumbai..

Krishnakumar Bulusu said...

Hi sset,

i just came back from interior tn .
fourth successive year of decreasing rainfall.this is the last year it can hold for farming...

People are already worried and any further failure can only spell doomsday..

Had this low that is not there we could have had a better wind pattern for NEM God please review NEM...

Regards
Krishna

Abhijit said...

Nashik recorded 7mm rainfall till 5.30pm today. Temp was drop to 23.6c at 2.30pm today from max of 32.5c ! So 2nd consecutive day rain in Nashik.

Anuj Arora said...

First Nanauk cyclone disturbed the SW monsoon pattern and now the current bay low will stall the NE monsoon arrival. As a layman i presume the ocean pollution and the increase of salinity has affected the evaporation process.In land deforestation urbanization industrial vehicle pollution have stalled the source of moisture to monsoon rains

gaurav said...

What is the expected land fall area for the cyclone and by when should it make a land fall ?

Vijayanand said...

HEAVY RAIN IN south and central bangalore yesterday.
It has rained two days back to back in bangalore.

Vijayanand said...

From keaweather:
Source : Sidblore

Yday's rainfall recorded by various RGs of KSNDMC in north bangalore -
Kodigehalli - 67mm
Vidyaranyapura - 55.5mm
Byatarayanapura - 44.5mm
Radhakrishna ward - 43.5mm
V. Nagenahalli - 17mm
Doddabommasandra - 44mm
Jakkur - 34mm
Yelahanka - 42mm

Rain quite widespread