Wednesday, October 08, 2014

Posted Wednesday Night:

Hud hud has formed...and cyclone is steaming ahead, ready to stregnthen and deepen along its track.
According to satellite image, a curvaed cloud formation and a resultant formative eye is seen . From thei image and eye, we can deduce the centre to be located at 13.3N and 90.2E. As per study of Satellite imagery and banding, we can estimate the core winds at 60 knts and pressure around 990 mb.

Upper air divergence has shot up to 40 knts and tracking into warmer seas..hence faster intensification possible.( an anticyclone in the upper layers of the troposphere above the storm must be present as well — for extremely low surface pressures to develop, air must be rising very rapidly in the eyewall of the storm, and an upper-level anticyclone helps channel this air away from the cyclone efficiently).
Cyclone is along the Southern edge of the Sub Tropical Ridge, which is to the NE of the cyclone. Would expect the cyclone, or severe cyclone by then, to curve to the NW by Friday.
Very Heavy rains from Friday along Odisha, North AP and adjoining W.Bengal coast, with winds upto 90-100 knts, 165 -189 kmph,  on landfall. Waves, dangerous waves upto 15 feet expected...precautions necassary.

Super Typhoon Vongfong !!

Winds speed at 268 kmph, 145 knts, gusting to 175 kmph or 325 kmph !! and Core estimated pressure at 914 mb.
Massive 50 feet waves causing dangerous situations in the Sea.


3 comments:

Wasim Athar said...

What are the chances of hud hud striking bengal even though all models predict landfall in andhra

Krishnakumar Bulusu said...

Hi Rajesh,

Although the system has tracked more westerly till now . what is the probability of the system continue in present west-northwesterly movement....so that chennai can get some benefits..

it is very very gloomy here but looks like some local phenemenon caused by UAC on south AP coast...

regards
Krishna

sset said...

Even Mumbai has been cloudy for past 4 days with winds/thunder rains. Krishna Mr.HudHud(sounds to me like "humpty dumpty") has consumed all moisture near TN...NEM (if it happens) will get delayed - if u recollect last we had couple of cyclones for TN but all of them vanished with no rains..moment they approached TN coast .. guess due to infavourable "surface sea temperature". Mr.HudHud if it moves north west may enter central India may cause havoc with monsoon axis - again more delays for NEM!!