Posted Monday Night: Estimate for next few days
1. North East Monsoon continues to bring good rains to Tamil Nadu on Monday. Good rains likely to continue in TN and heavy rains in Kerala on Tuesday.
We see a decrease in rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday in TN. As mentioned in Vagaries earlier, NEM may remain sluggish till October end.
Chennai: Tuesday 21st and Wednesday 22nd (Deepavali) sees intermittent showers in city. Rainfall decreases, leading to partly sunny days from Thursday 23rd/ Friday 24th.
Bangalore will be partly cloudy, with a range of 26c - 19/20c. Thunder showers possible in parts .
2. The current UAC in the Arabian Sea off SW Kerala coast, can descend to sea level and form a Low in the region by Tuesday evening. Though weak at 1008 mb, it may deepen slightly to 1006 mb by Wednesday or Thursday. Likely to precipitate moderate rains in Lakshdweep Islands and Kerala. Lot of resistance in the track of system.
Next few days will see heavy falls in coastal Karnataka also. Goa can expect a few patchy showers on around Divali days.
Mumbai: Tuesday 21st/Wednesday 22nd will be hot and stuffy. 35/36c. No major cooling seen. Thundery developments in East, with very patchy rainfall possible in the East inland regions.
Thursday 23rd: Divali day, will see thundery developments in the Eastern region. Possible of a thunder cell drifting over the city by evening.
More rains expected on Friday 24th.
Pune: Tuesday 21st/Wednesday 22nd: Partly cloudy afternoon. Thunder shower in parts of city on Divali Day, 23rd. Thunder showers on 24th also possible.
3. Western Disturbance O-3 moves across from 24th thru 26th along Northern regions of Sub Continent. Precipitation in North Pakistan starting on 24th and moving into Kashmir and HP on 25th and 26th. Rains likely in North Punjab also.
Delhi NCR will be partly cloudy on 25th, with rise in night temperatures. Night temperatures otherwise around 17c.