Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Posted 23rd October:

A recap on yesterday's Post...tracking AS-1...

Same rule applies , wait till 25th/26th, and see the position and strength to determine the track.
Wind flow as predicted with AS-1 position as on 26th October...Suspected tracks.."A" "B" and "C"...

will be clear as per the AS-1 positon by 25th/26th...

some models have started showing a South bound track...why ? Heres why...and for this track its presumed to be influenced by the 500 winds. But, almost at 997 mb by 26th, it will will be "obeying" the 200 streams...


Mumbai: Should get relief showers from Friday night thru Saturday. Cooler day with rain on Saturday. Saturday Maximum should drop to 25/26c.

Pune: Cloudy with showers from Friday night thru Saturday. Cool day on Saturday, not exceeding 25c.


Mumbai Scruz records 37.2c on Diwali day..Dahanu 37.8c !!

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Posted Wednesday Night: Report on System in Arabian Sea....

A Low pressure has formed in the Arabian Sea , West of lakshdweep Islands, at 71 E and 11 N, as on Wednesday Night. Currently around 1008 mb.

The progress of the system is now divided in 2 phases:
1) Next 2 days, AS-1 is likely to deepen and move NW. This is possible as AS-1 is now at upper levels till 700 hp, but son reaches the higher levels at 250 hp...and would be guided by the jet streams and Wind shears between 850 p-200 hp.
AS-1 would move NW, or maybe N/NW till it raeches around the 15N Latitude. That means on about 25th evening, would be West off Goa, around 14N and 63E, at 1000 mb.

2) After 26th, we see a possible change. Since AS-1 has acheived greater heights, the track would be influenced by the jet straems. By then, possibly due to the circular effect, and greater wind shears, an anticyclone can form in the 200/150 hp levels. Result would be wind shears upto 40-60 knts. 

That would complicate matters....Now,  readers understand why 2 different tracks are estimated..understand this to avoid getting confused

Explaining in a very simple format:
depending on the exact location and strength, the system at that stage, 26th/27th  October, could be steered in either the NE from that location, or if "trapped" in the winds in the North, which are N/NW...See,Map of 200 level winds as estimated for 26th October... If Located at "A", or "B", the track would be as shown in "Red"...




AS-1 track at this stage is very difficult to estimate, and would be clear around the 25th, when the exact Location and 200 winds formations picture get very clear and defined.

Mumbai: The Maximum on Wednesday was 36.7c at Colaba and 37c at Scruz..27c as the minimum. The hot weather continues till Friday. Friday sees cloudy weather, and, in any case of AS-1 moving either way, Mumbai has some showers in store on 25th , with a welcome drop in day temperatures to 29/30c on Saturday...

Pune too has showers in store after Friday..Rains on Saturday and Sunday. Cold day on Saturday...

With the off shore trough along Eastern coast remaining intact, Chennai will continue to get frequent and occasional showers till Sunday.

6 comments:

sset said...

Rogue Arabian sea probable cyclone (unusual @ october) steals NEM moisture...paths may again lucky GUJ/MAHA or Oman (like Nauk cyclone)

Junaid said...

Sset maharashtra deserves this system as June was a big failure!

moon toon said...

sindh wants this because of extreme drought this year.

sset said...

Mumbai/Navi Mumbai seems monsoon is back very cloudy,windy and rainy - looks like extreme dump in store. Probable name - "NILOFER"

sset said...

TN/Rayalseema rains vanish- if it does not revive 5th drought year.

sset said...

"India weathermen - Kaneyan" states SWM is still around and NEM is yet to set over TN/Rayalseema!! - http://indianweatherman.blogspot.in/