Thursday, October 30, 2014

 Will mid level Westerlies notch up the system 1 level before landfall ?  WML now at 1006.9 mb (approx)...lets see tonight !
The expected Low has formed off the TN coast...


Friday Noon: Erstwhile "Nilofar" now just a Well Marked Low West of Gujarat...and weakening ...Image of 11.30 am IST Friday




Though the Centre is off the coast, we see clouding penetrating into Gujarat and Rajasthan.


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Report of Thursday Mid Night IST..

The Deep Depression is Situated now ( 11.30 pm IST) at 20.8N and 65.1E, approximately 450 kms from Dwarka. With a lop sided centre, the system sees clouds and precipitation has "buldged" to the NE, and moving into the North Saurashtra/Kutch regions and Parts of Lower Sindh.

At 997 mb with winds at 38-45 knts, it will  cross a Depression into the Land region between Porbandar and Kutch Coast.


Nilofar Positional Report as ay 10.30 pm IST:

By Advanced DVORAK Technique and Intensity Algorithm, Nilofar is current analysed at 20.4N and 64.5E...having moved very little, and still about 410 kms from Kutch Coast and 490 kms from Dwarka.




Having again weakened to a Deep Depression with estimated wind speeds at 45 knts  (3 minutes avg) and estimated pressure at 996 mb. Surprising is the rise in Central core temperatures to...+7.4c. Strong divergent convection brings mass clouding to the NW quadrant of the system.

Todays next follow up update at 12 mid night


Report Thursday 5.30 pm IST:

Cyclone Nilofar, now weakens to  an estimated Central pressure of 995 mb with estimated core winds at around 50  knts, 90 kmph. Core pressure is calculated  taking a 87 kms radii of 34 knots.
Moving NE, and Located at 20.18N and 64.2E. its centre is about 450 kms from the Indian Landmass (Western Kutch). Latest ( 4 pm IST) Imagery shows still heavy rains in due to divergent convection in NW quadrant of system  region. 




Weakening to Deep Depression in next 6 hrs.
The Central Cloud temperature is at -63c.

As indicated in earlier Forecasts, very heavy rains are likely to commence around the Dwarka and Okha regions by Thursday night.
Kutch and Lower Sindh will also get showers from Thursday night as forecasted.

East/NE winds have started blowing in Karachi, indicative of system being in the S/SE of the city. Rain showers likely tonite.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

http://m.thehindu.com/sci-tech/science/why-western-ghats-in-karnataka-receive-more-monsoon-rainfall/article6545356.ece/

article in hindu...potey

sset said...

seems cyclone "NILOFER" is almost near north GUJ-waiting for extreme rains! Again like earlier easterlies have drifted to western south Arabian sea - will this spawn another low over Arabian sea? - again disturbing NEM?

Cyclone Warning for Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coast:  Posted:   15 NOV 2018    Time :   11.00 am IST, 053000 UTC Position of "GAJA...