Monday, June 03, 2013

Posted on Monday 3rd June at 11.50 pm IST:

South West Monsoon has  further advanced into Coastal Karnataka and some parts of S.I.Karnataka.
Progress was initiated by a strengthened Line of Wind Discontinuity running thru central Peninsula, and strong W/SW winds from the Arabian Sea.Sufficient isobar gradient also got the SWM Northwards.
Monsoon progress shown on Monsoon Advance  Page…

Forecast for Tuesday 4th/Wednesday 5th/ Thursday 6th June:

City Forecasts for next 3 days, 4th/5th/6th June:
Mumbai will get a few Thunder Storms in some parts of city  and in vicinity.. Rainfall around 5-7 mms/day
Some outer townships can get thunder storms.

Pune will get thunder showers in some parts of the city.

Delhi NCR region rising to 44/45c by Thursday. Night temperature likely to rise to 32/33c.

No meaningfull precipitation for Surat and Nagpur.

Surat may get light rain on Wednesday.

GFS Forecast map for 3rd June - 9th June from Jim (Accuweather) on Inter Active Page..
Today (Monday)  rain in Maharashtra  till 5.30 pm

...Mahableshwar 37 mms, Satara 28 mms, Ahmadnagar 17 mms, Pune 7 mms,  Pune AP 5 mms, Kolhapur 9 mms, Panjim 0.9 mms and Rgiri 0.6 mms.

Mumbai Colaba 2.6 mms, Scruz 1.0 mms and Vagaries 0.2 mms till 8.30 pm IST


Unknown said...

Thnx fr ur updates...
Rajesh Sir, Mumbai mein Heavy Pre-Monsoon Rain kab hogi?

sset said...

Nsvi Mumbai CBD belapur rained heavily today. Day was cold and dark indicating Mumbai is store for deadliest rains ranging from 200 - 400 - 1000mm of rain!!! City is already in Guinness records for most heaviest rain in 24hrs!!!~ Very green and dense trees!!! Readers this will be last SUN after that wait for 4-5months

Seems monsoon has rapidly advanced north even Gujarat???

emkay said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
emkay said...

Seems sset is ahead of even Vinson in advancing monsoon to north

Vinod Desai said...

I do not see many trees now in mumbai...every corner is concretized..only green zone left is our national park...

emkay said...

Rajesh, is the blow up over Mumbai delayed to Friday or is it off?

Unknown said...

HAHHAHAHHAAHA 4-5 MONTHS NO SUNSHINE 'Mr SSET' what makes you assume such things , even when i was a kid it used to pour for several days without sunshine' but yet again " I USED TO SEE SUNSHINE ALMOST AFTER A WEEKS RAIN" but its over now we don"t see such type of rain anymore in Mumbai.

Unknown said...

On a serious note, sun vanishes for weeks at Lonavla at least towards hills of Amby valley. Humidity remains near satuaration and temp stays around 20-22 C throughout....Potey

Vinod Desai said...

What would be the case than in cherrapunji ?

emkay said...

Tricky reading further progress of SWM in coming days - Feel MJO has shifted eastwards, 48-50 degrees heat prediction on the other side should be a good pulling force. We may see an advance further but weak in intensity !!

Anonymous said...

Rajesh Sir,
Thanks for the forecast. From yesterday night the temps have come down and it also rained some trace only in Nagpur. Morning had cool breeze.
Signs of monsoon coming early...?

SVT said...

Hi! Back here after long time. I think officially monsoon will hit Mumbai on 10th june monday. Rain could be upwards of 50 mm on that day. Heavy rain could continue atleast till 20th june.

Unknown said...

If i am not mistaken , monsoon will hit Mumbai by 8th of june officially this year 2013.

Unknown said...

Rajesh sir,Looks like thunder cell developing in the eastern sky here at Vasai

Rajesh said...

Mohan/Sam/SVT/ Raj:
International forecast models swing like a pendulum..of course the weather makes tham do it . But let us not swing along with the models..thats why vagaries would only confirm a low or a system only when sure and sure of forming.
We can as of now stick to the schedule of SWM advance given by vagaries'map.
Anyway, the UAC formed off the Oman coast will be of benefit to the west coast...will put up short note on it today evening.
Hit and miss thunder showers would continue in the Mumbai vicinity as forecasted for next 3 days..

Abhijit Modak said...

Raigad District rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today(4-6-2013)

Alibaug 11.4
Panvel 1.4
Karjat 28.7
Khalapur 39
Uran 2
Sudhagad 30
Pen 10.4
Mahad 18.8
Mangaon 30
Roha 62
Poladpur 7
Murud 22
Shriwardhan 11
Mahasala 5
Tala 38

So almost whole Raigad district got rains yesterday..

 26th Day Temperatures..Mumbai cooler than Pune,Nasik and Same as Mahabaleshwar