Thursday, May 30, 2013

Vagaries has initiated a contest to predict the expected  rainfall  for June 2013..see  Monsoon June Contest Page,,,All are requested to Participate and make the contest interesting..Certificates of Summer Contest Winners on Monsoon Contest Page


Light rains from South Mumbai ...Dombivai and Panvel ...See Pics on Mumbai Page
1,2 mms at Colaba

Mumbai Water Supplying Lakes Position as on end of May..and Mumbai forecast for next few days on Mumbai Page..posted on Friday Night

SWM Advances into Kerala and Far Eastern States.....posted Saturday 2 pm IST..see Monsoon Advance Position Chart Page

Posted on Thursday, 30th May:  SWM advancing in to Maldives and Comorin Regions.

BB-2 crossed land at the W. Bengal  coast on Wednesday at depression strength, and on Thursday evening, was at  a well marked low strength near Midnapore.
BB-2 will now move NW along the trough. Trough is situated from SE Uttar Pradesh running  SE  into the Bay thru BB-2.
The other system, AS-1 , has fizzled out over Oman, and no longer shows any pressure isobars.

Weekend day temperatures to rise in Sindh region of Pakistan. Days may touch 48/49c in Dadu, Larkana and Nawabshah. Sukkar and Hyderabad could reach 45c.
Karachi wil be around 36c.
Fairly heavy rains for Kathmandu on Friday and Saturday.

Outlook: Friday 31st, Saturday 1st June and Sunday 2nd June:
City forecast below….




City forecast for Friday, 31st, Saturday, 1st June and Sunday 2nd June:

Mumbai:  Days will be partly cloudy. Light rain shower possible in some parts of city. Friday and Saturday, sky will be hazy..Rain Amount : 2-4 mms.
 Cumulus clouds and possible thunder heads in the eastern horizon on Sunday evening.
Day temperatures around 34/35c and night will be warm and stuffy at 28/29c.

Outer Townships also partly cloudy. Thunder heads developing on Sunday evening…Light rains possible in some parts.

Pune will be partly cloudy. Cloudiness increasing on Saturday, with light rain showers in some parts. Thunder shower in some parts of city on Sunday evening.

Surat will be partly cloudy. Cloudiness increasing on Saturday.  Light rain likely in vicinity on Sunday.

Bangalore:  Thunder showers in different parts of Bangalore on Friday. Saturday, fairly heavy thunder shower. Sunday, decrease in rains with dim chances of rains.

Hyderabad: Heavy  thunder showers on week end, specially Sunday.

Aurangabad  vagaries' forecast appears in Lokmat Times (Aurangabad Edition) on Mondays and Fridays.
Shall try to give specific city forecast if required..

57 comments:

naveen123 said...

rajesh sir will the monsoon hit kerala before 2nd

rajesh said...

naveen: see map provided with monsoon advance given on saturday map

sset said...

Navi Mumbai also received early morning rains.

By the way- did monsoon ever reach SriLanka? Since MAY month did not see any clouds, trajectory just hit south India coast rapidly making its way up? It seems Bay side is more prominent - actually WB,Orissa,Bihar,UP are getting rains much ahead SWM date for these areas.

rajesh said...

sset: Monsoon advancing into Maldives..should also reach Sri Lanka in a day, or with Kerala..

Vijayanand said...

Nice rain in bangalore last evening. Bangalore city recorded 31 mm. In south bangalore it was not heavy rain. But it was light rain, with low clouds zipping from west to east. It went on for about an hour from 9.00 pm.

Vijayanand said...

Climate in bangalore for the last 3 days is awesome. Temp around 31. Its cloudy with good breeze blowing in from west.

sam khan said...

A fake forecast from Indian Meteriological department , which as usual 90% never comes true, are now saying that monsoon will hit kerela a day early . previously they said, it will hit on 3rd June , then 2nd june now 1st june. I tell you they r not forecaster's but jokers, who don't know anything and their forecast is a big flop.

sam khan said...

Monsoon has already entered southern tip of kerela

sam khan said...

Sorry. for the error, the monsoon is now set to enter kerela.without any further changes as predicted by Rajesh sir last forecast.

emkay said...

As we speak, Kanyakumari may have been crossed !!

Nagpur Star said...

Rajesh Sir,
What about Nagpur?

Puneet Bangera said...

Rainfall in INDIA above 10mm ending at 8:30 IST of today.

Jamshedpur -126.00 mm,
Bankura -97.90 mm,
Patna-92.2 mm,
Port-Blair-64.5 mm,
Hassan-52.2 mm,
Jorhat -44.10 mm,
kozhikode -38.70 mm,
Minicoy -38.70 mm,
Sholapur -36.40 mm,
Gangtok -33.80 mm,
Jalpaiguri -32.00 mm,
Tiruchirapalli -31.20 mm,
Bengaluru -31.00 mm,
Coochbehar -30.80 mm,
Honnavar-30.6 mm,
Bareilly-29.4mm
Koraput -26.00 mm,
Bhagalpur-24 mm,
Sriniketan -23.60 mm,
Malda -21.00 mm,
Mangalore-20.5 mm
Nanded -20.00 mm,
Bijapur-19.8 mm,
Digha -19.40 mm,
Madurai -17.60 mm,
Chitradurga -16.60 mm,
Baharampur -15.00 mm,
Madikeri-14.6 mm,
Dhubri -13.20 mm,
Gadag -12.70 mm,
Ranchi -12.30 mm,
Kodaikanal-12.00 mm,
Kannur -11.70 mm,
Agartala -11.40 mm,
Indore-11 mm,
North Lakhimpur -10.70 mm,
Dehradun -10.70 mm,

sam khan said...

As predicted earlier by Rajesh sir, monsoon will remain sluggish near Mumbai and Konkan coast, but will become very active after 6th June onwards.Mumbai and konkan region will experience downpours only after 6th June onwards.

rohitaros said...

Mumbai SCZ-May 2013 avg temp : 33.8 c / 25.9 c .. Rain :trace

Max temp range - 32.9 to 34.8 , Min temp range - 23.6 to 28.4

rohitaros said...

Nagpur and adjoining Vidarbha region keeps up its tag as worlds hottest city/region in May ,
Nagpur -> May 2013 avg max temp : 45.3 c (max temp range : 42.6 to 47.9 )

Vijayanand said...

Heavy rain started in south bangalore. Its pouring here in BTM layout. It started 15 min back.

Vijayanand said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Atul Naik said...

Following rain gauge stations of IMC, Goa too recorded rainfall more than 10 mm for the 24 hrs period ending 0830 hrs May 31, 2013: Ponda - 19.2 , Canacona - 98.2, Margao - 85.2, Quepem - 68.8, Sanguem - 57.0

rajesh said...

Good rainfall reported from Bangalore and Northern regions of Tn, and Kanyakumari. The light green patch in the Friday forecast map covers Bangalore, at shows 40-75 mms.

Sam: yes, but Mumbai in the interim period may get a thunder shower around 5th...as the SWM progresses.

Pune sporadic showers in South today as Pavan reports.

shankar kiran said...

rajesh sir,b'lore records 82mm till 9.30pm and there was some rain after that also, so expecting close to 10cm

rajesh said...

shankar: lovely rains and lovely report...feeling good for Bangalore..vagaries map had shown up to 75 mms..

rajesh said...

amit: Nagpur will be partly cloudy, mostly high clouds, and hot till Monday. Day will rise to 44c again..

Pradeep: Chennai has an odd chance of a thunder shower on Saturday evening..with rain in some pockets around up to 7 -10 mms...

Venkatesh D said...

You are bang on bangalore rain!!.City already crossed 91 mm and still steady drizzle continues

Jayant Judeo said...

When do we expect the monsoon in bundelkhand ? Ie khajuraho Jhansi area. . . .? Being a hot zone we look forward to the rains. Please elaborate.

shankar kiran said...

as expected b'lore records 100mm of rain and airport 74.6mm....rajesh sir's forecast was spot on

rohitaros said...

Past 10 year averages for New Delhi(SFD)-

Jan : 20.5/07.5 , Feb:25.1/11.1,Mar:31.6/16.4 , Apr:37.3 /21.7, May:39.9/25.6, Jun:39.1/27.7,
Jul:35.8/27.3, Aug:34.5/26.6 , Sep:34/24.8, Oct:33 /19.3 , Nov:28.3 /13.2 , Dec:22.9/08.6 ..

Annual Rain-78 cms ,Annual avg temp -31.8/19.2 (25.5)
Highest temp-45.7 c (23rd May 2013) , Lowest temp- 0.2 c (8th Jan 2006)

Abhish said...

Hi Rajesh sir, A Japanese climate agency - Research Institute for Global Climate has forecast a Negative IOD event till autumn. Says Indian monsoon will be badly affected. What are your views? Will India again suffer this year? I am hoping not...

Nagpur Star said...

Thanks for the Nagpur update. Eagerly looking forward to rains with so much heat.....
Amit

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir looking at the current , winds picking up in the Arabian sea in a 'SW DIRECTION' I feel that it's very unlikey that a negative IOD will have its effect on SW monsoon.

rajesh said...

Abhish/Sam: An IOD effect on our monsoon is still to be established. It is a relatively new find, and the effect of the IOD on SWM is still to be proved after about 15 years of average or so.
I do not consider IOD as an important factor for analysing Monsoon rain quantum.

rajesh said...

As given on Mumbai page, I expect a real good thundershower in Mumbai and surroundings on Wednesday, 5th June...

The clouding from the SW winds are seen in the mid arabian seas

sam khan said...

rajesh sir thanks for your promt reply,At last the day is getting closer and closer , but sir is it likely that we can get shower on Monday too ?

rajesh said...

sam: yes, i have put up in yesterday's article (Mumbai Page) of drizzle possible on Monday

paulodon said...

thick dark clounds seen over the eastern sky from thane is it going to rain now....???

Vinod said...

The sky here in malad is yellowish

Vijayanand said...

Raining in bangalore since 5.10 pm. Low clouds streaming in from west. Great rains here.

3rd continous days rain in bangalore. After friday's terrific deluge , we had some 10 min rain yesterday.
Friday bangalore city recorde ~75mm, begur in south subhurb recorded 100 mm. Between 7.30 pm to 8.00 pm begur recoded 66 mm.

paulodon said...

humidity dew point going up... it could rain now...in thane...:)

chandan kulkarni said...

Your forecast is right sir.Today hyderabad got thundershowers for 1 hour..

Tejas Baxi said...

reports of heavy rain/thunder lightning from the outer townships of mumbai. like badlapur, mumbra, and panvel. im mumbai rain is still light

Vinod said...

Raining in malad now

sam khan said...

THUNDER LIGHTNING AND SHOWERY RAIN IN VASAI.

Puneet Bangera said...

Dombivli got some heavier falls between 7:30-8 and light rainfall is continuing with now increase in intensity,getting steady showers.

Puneet Bangera said...

Dombivli got some heavier falls between 7:30-8 and light rainfall is continuing with now increase in intensity,getting steady showers.

rajesh said...

very light drizzle at Mahalaxmi since 15 minutes..(22.20 Pm IST)

Abhijit said...

Badlapur weather got changed from 6 pm onward . Turned dark then continuous lightening & thundering from 7 pm and just drops started. But from 8 pm vertical lighting got increased and huge thundering with strong gusty winds, then came an steady thick drops drizzles for an hour period. So 2mm rain recorded here. So lightening snaps posted on Vagaries FB page

Puneet Bangera said...

Sir.how much rainfall got yesterday in kalyan-ulhasnagar belt.

Abhijit said...

Some Maharashtra cities rainfall in mm from IMD ending 8.30am today(3-6-2013)


Mumbai: Santacruz 8.6, Colaba 5.4
Panji 6.7
Harnai 11.40
Ratnagiri 9
Nashik 39.80
Aurangabad 2.40
Sangli 24.70
Mahabaleshwar 42.4

Abhijit said...

Raigad District rainfall in mm from ending 8.30am today(3-6-2013)

Alibaug 19.6
Panvel 12.6
Khalapur 12
Uran 15
Pen 2.3
Mahad 18.6
Mangaon 1
Roha 7
Poladpur 12
Murud 38
Mahasala 42.2

rajesh said...

some rainfall around Mumbai till 8.30 am 3rd June
Alibaug 19.6
Panvel 12.6
Khalapur 12
Uran 15
Pen 2.3
Mahad 18.6
Mangaon 1
Roha 7
Poladpur 12
Murud 38
Mahasala 42.2
Navi Mumbai 42.6 mm, Santa Cruz 8.6mm
Colaba 5.4 mms, vagaries 0.3 mms

emkay said...

@Rajesh This Navi-Mumbai figure (showing more than Panvel) is from which location within the area ? I doubt if there was this much variation between Panvel & Navi-Mumbai.

Btw Alibaug got its rains from another blob of clouds !!

paulodon said...

thunder clouds forming over panvel matheran belt..

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir thunderclouds have formed over Mumbai , can be seen clearly from Vasai, is there a storm instored for us tonite.

sam khan said...

but Vasai is bright n sunny , quite strange

sarfarajkhan khan said...

the cloud has passed over mumbai and no rain yet

sam khan said...

Atlast the huge thunder clouds have have formed here at vasai

paulodon said...

humidity going up.. dense dark clouds.over thane.. it could start raining any timenow.....

rajesh said...

Emkay: Navi Mumbai recording is at Rabale...46.2 mms till Monday morning.