Friday, June 07, 2013

Posted @  4.00 pm IST Sunday:  SWM advances into North Konkan and .Marathwada up to 20N ..Upper trough runs horizontal along 20N line.....stagnant in Eastern Branch as per Vagaries Map

Posted @ 22.45 IST Saturday: 

Same position as the morning 5.30 am IST ….. The off shore vortex is stagnant around the S.Konkan region as per the 1200 hrs Charts..

The upper air trough is persistently remaining in the “horizontal” position, and extends from the mid Arabian Sea UAC  towards the vortex. Clouding seen is around the mid sea UAC and along the S.Konkan coast.

It seems from the current conditions, that the UAC will dissolve, and the vortex will strengthen. It will possibly move a bit Northwards towards Central Konkan region  by Sunday.

In this circumstances, I could hold on to my Sunday forecast for Mumbai. Expecting around 65-85 mms in Mumbai (average) on Sunday. . By Sunday, with the vortex, the SWM could move Northwards towards Mumbai.
Peak vortex location could get in excess of 150 mms on Sunday (Central and S.Konkan).

On Sunday, we could see the off shore trough extending from Saurashtra to Kerala. Hence rains along the Gujarat coast and Saurashtra would be prominent on Sunday Night/Monday


As the vortex persists in the S.Konkan region, and the OLR not yet going below the 200 count, I would maintain the SWM at the same position as shown in the vagaries map (at S.Konkan).

Tentative Estimate of the SWM progress into Northern India and then into Pakistan…

A trough in the 500-700 hpa region  can form from the heat low over NW India. It could possibly form around the 14th/15th of June. This will be of extra benefit, as it will attract and pull moisture from the Arabian Sea into the NWI regions thru Gujarat.
As this will be a low covering a fairly large area, from 14th/15th June, we could see the moisture flowing into Southern and Central Pakistan region also.

The low in the upper regions will also attract the Easterly winds into Northern and NE India, from the Bay of Bengal.

Later, maybe after the 15th  June, as a result of the inter action of the Easterlies and SW winds from the Arabian Sea, we could see the SWM progressing into UP and then into Delhi NCR.

More on this later, as I do not take credit of Long Term Forecasting…

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Posted @ 1.30 pm IST Saturday: Anticipated Vortex at 700 hpa forms over South Konkan !! Mapped and Charted at 8.30 am IST Saturday..


Vagaries expects the vortex to get embedded in the off shore trough..more as it happens !

Fantastic Maharashtra rainfall amounts posted in comments by abhijit.

Posted @11.30 pm Friday: A trough is getting stabilised at the 700 hpa level off the west coast of India. As anticipated earlier, the likelihood of an embedded vortex in the trough remains a possibility. Studying the wind shear and other factors, it seems the vortex can form as early as Sunday.

The vortex, in all probability, can form anywhere between Dahanu and Goa on the west coast. The region and area of vortex may be small. But, we can expect  >100 mms of rain on Sunday, or when the vortex forms.

Lets keep a watch on this..if it happens...

52 comments:

SVT said...

I think in south konkan places like Ratnagiri, Harnai could get more than 200 mm rain for next 48 hours. And Mumbai might get over 80 mm of rain on sunday and monday combined.

rajesh said...

svt: depends on the vortex formaton and position...lets see..

rajesh said...

just updated vagaries reading at mid night: 21.5 mms...though still raining...

Abhijit said...

Badlapur receiving non - stop rains from 5.30pm onwards. Intensity varying from light to medium to heavy ocassionally. So enjoying first heavy rains of the season. :)

Avtansh said...

Till last year MCGM maintained this site (http://mumbaimonsoon.in/) with hourly updates of automatic rain gauges across Greater Mumbai. Now it shows the domain name expired on June 01 :|. How lazy is the municipal corporation! Any other source of getting these updates?

sam khan said...

Bright n sunny at the moment, Mumbai might experience similar weather today evening , thunderstorm possible.

sset said...

Sam Khanji - probably you agree now with Mumbai rains - multiples of 100mm (100x)?

Rohit - Greenest city of India/largest planned city of world is "NAVI MUMBAI". Maximum number of dense canopy of trees of native species. Surrounded by western ghats, water falls like "Pandav Kada" similar to Jog falls, meadows, - golf courses,lakes, dense trees on all roads, gradens after blocks of houses, creeks, iconic -palm beach roads,forts,temples,parsik,kharghar hills,urban haat - center for cultural shows and now aiming to become "SILICON city of India" - IT Parks, data centeres, research institutes- greenery, all species, birds - close to hill station lonavala - just 30 minutes - Mumbai-pune heavy - NAVI MUMBAI is heaven on earth. Salute to architects CIDCO,NMMC,NMMT,MMRDA. I hope all other cities of India learn from NAVI MUMBAI.

rohitaros said...

Rainfall ending 8.30 am (past 24 hrs) dated 8 Jun 2013 at Mumbai:

SCZ :64.8 mms , CLB : 53 mms ..

So moderate amounts of rain received ..

SVT said...

Has Vortex formrd yet Rajesh? It seems it will form around ratnagiri and then move north towards Mumbai. Latest forecast model shows total of over 100 mm rain for Mumbai on sunday and monday. But ofcourse this forecast can change.

Abhijit said...

Raigad District rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today(8-6-2013)

Alibaug 54.8
Panvel 63.6
Karjat 13
Khalapur 5
Uran 70
Sudhagad 35
Pen 135.4
Mahad 40
Mangaon 35.2
Roha 34
Poladpur 30
Murud 164
Shriwardhan 126
Mahasala 40
Tala 69

Nilesh Ladhad said...

heavy rains since last 20 minutes after half an hour of drizzle in sambalpur odisha

Abhijit said...

Thane District rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today(08-06-2013)

Thane 80
Kalyan 50
Murbad 42
Bhivandi 40
Vasai 53
Wada 35
Shahapur 22.4
Dahanu 31.6
Palghar 16.4
Mokhada 15.8
Talasari 75
Ulhasnagar 93.4
Ambernath 59.1
Vikramgadh 31

Abhijit said...

Ratnagiri district rainfall in mm till 8.30am today(08-06-2013)

Chiplun 48
Dapoli 154.8
Khed 18
Gughagar 169
Mandangad 11
Ratnagiri 121.7
Sangameshwar 81.7
Rajapur 48
Lanja 81.6

Abhijit said...

Sindhudurg district rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today(08-06-2013)

Devgad 70
Malwan 56
Sawantwadi 134
Vengurla 84.6
Kankawali 39
Kudal 63
Vaibhavwadi 35
Dodamarg 104

sam khan said...

Right Mr SSet , to get 100 mm rain in Mumbai per day is nothing new ,i only pointed out your extreme figures, 400mm, 500mm, 1000mm per day, no sun at all .these r not usual figures .i hope u understand what i meant .

sam khan said...

As mentioned by Rajesh sir, just a while ago the vortex has formed & as it makes its move towards Mumbai the rains likely to become more heavier and prolonged.

sset said...

Super darkness engulfs Navi Mumbai - seems rain gods will unleash all anger! Wondering if start is like this- what will happen in next few months?

Nimish Thaker said...

Mumbai Doppler radar is now back to life. Have fun watching all the rains in and around Mumbai on the Radar

Atul Naik said...

The offshore trough and the NW-E across the plains are in place. The heat wave, seasonal low, LWD have done their bit. And now the vortex! Is asking for more too much?

sam khan said...

Dark clouds have started gathering here at Vasai.

sset said...

as published by IMD just now - Thane Belapur - 140mm yesterday!! Guess it should be more as it was raining non-stop since afternoon - cold and dark. IMD monsoon on way to GUJARAT!! Too soon. By the way we see dense mass of clouds all prepared to hit Surashtra/Kutch?

Atul Naik said...

The rainfall across 11rainfall stations maintained by IMD Goa as of 8.30 am on June 8, 2013 is here http://goo.gl/ClKWg

Nimish Thaker said...

IMD in it's current bulletin has declared Monsoon over Mumbai, the Monsoon NLM now passes through Mumbai.

GSB said...

Sset your take on Navi Mumbai is welcome. But don't discount the other heavens around Mumbai. Like Thane, where I stay for example. You are welcome to the planned godhbundar road area and see for yourself the greenery adjoining the SGNP. Also Thane is a well planned city like Navi Mumbai especially along the arterial belt from check naka to ovla on godhbundar road. You should have joined us in the April meeting to appreciate that. But anyways we will recommend to Rajesh sir to hold our next meeting at Navi Mumbai.

GSB said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Atul Naik said...

Heavy downpour with gust of wind from 4.15 pm after an overcast day at Magao Goa

Vinod said...

No signs of rain today here in western suburbs.

Vinod said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sset said...

Raining non-stop since late evening in Belapur.

Abijitji you are right thane area is very beautiful (recently I had been to essel world via Gorbhunder road - mountains,creeks,forests).

emkay said...

It is steady downpour in panvel since 2-3 am.

sam khan said...

3.am heavy showers in Vasai, now cloudy and breezy.

Abhijit said...

Badlapur having just drizzling from 3am onward. @ SSET I am from Badlapur having beautiful Matheran mountain range running from Badlapur to Karjat in West direction. So in monsoon Kondeshwar waterfalls are famous one day picnic point here. And GSB sir is from Thane who stays at Ghodbunder and he requested you to visit an planned city Thane.

rajesh said...

vagaries manages 32 mms from mid night to 9.30 am Sunday

sam khan said...

Light to Moderate rain with intermittent heavy showers continuing at Vasai.

Puneet Bangera said...

Today morning had few showers & now Light to moderate showers started in dombivli.

sam khan said...

It's pouring in Vasai, for last 10 mins.

rohitaros said...

At Mumbai ; currently heavy rainfall , completey dark ..
Raining continuously from 9 pm yesterday in all hues - very heavy ,heavy , moderate, light ,drizzle etc ..

latest update->very heavy rain at Mumbai for past 15-30 minutes with very low visibility..

enjoying the heavy rains on Sunday ..cool , overcast , very very low visibility :)

rohitaros said...

Strong monsoon conditions are seen over Konkan / Goa and coastal Karnataka during the following synoptic features-

1) Off shore trough at sea levels and /or lower levels (925 hpa)
2) Cyclonic circulation at 700 mb /500 mb(mid-troposphere) off the coast
3) Westward /NW moving Low /depressions from the bay
4)Formation of a sympathy low along west coast in the off shore trough along with the above mentioned bay low..
5) Strong wind shear (cyclonic) in the westerlies along the coast at lower levels
6) A good pressure gradient along the west coast

GSB said...

Very heavy rains here in Thane . About 80 mm recorded on envirocon.

And Abhijit I think SSET is very fond of you. Haha ,so now I am sure the next meeting you two should arrange either in Badlapur or Navi Mumbai.

Puneet Bangera said...

SUPER SUNDAY IS HERE!!!!
Torrential downpour at thane & dombivli.Thane got 82.6 mm of rainfall till now.
Today's peak intensity of rainfall From thane(envirocon)-
Rainfall: 5.08 mm
Rain intenstity : 60.96 mm/h
Today's Rain : 77.40 mm

Abhijit said...

Konkan District rainfall ending 8.30am today :

hane District rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today(09-06-2013)

Thane 32.6
Kalyan 0
Murbad 0
Bhivandi 7
Vasai 9
Wada 0
Shahapur 0
Dahanu 23
Palghar 8.6
Javhar 0
Mokhada 0
Talasari 0
Ulhasnagar 5
Ambernath 0
Vikramgadh 4.1

Raigad District rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today(09-06-2013)

Alibaug 64
Panvel 27.2
Karjat 5
Khalapur 7
Uran 56
Sudhagad 19
Pen 17.2
Mahad 53
Mangaon 39
Roha 42.2
Poladpur 56
Murud 109
Shriwardhan 167
Mahasala 86.2
Tala 70

Ratnagiri district rainfall in mm till 8.30am today(09-06-2013)

Chiplun 136
Dapoli 169.2
Khed 130
Gughagar 169
Mandangad 74
Ratnagiri 139.5
Sangameshwar 113.6
Rajapur 81
Lanja 96.6

Sindhudurg district rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today(09-06-2013)

Devgad 115
Malwan 99
Sawantwadi 143
Vengurla 137
Kankawali 88
Kudal 46
Vaibhavwadi 132
Dodamarg 65

sam khan said...

Weather has become cool and pleasant ,as rains continue in Mumbai, Vasai and surrounding's.

sset said...

seems Rajesh sirs estimation will come true. Pouring like waterfalls in Navi Mumbai - no respite since yesterday. Probably this must be most vigourous pre-monsoon we ever had - and exceeds june month quota in just 3-4 days?

sset said...

seems Rajesh sirs estimation will come true. Pouring like waterfalls in Navi Mumbai - no respite since yesterday. Probably this must be most vigourous pre-monsoon we ever had - and exceeds june month quota in just 3-4 days?

paulodon said...

110 mm since morning and still pouring...in thane...

sam khan said...

Very heavy rains pour.ing at Vasai

sset said...

IMD puts red alert over MAHA,GUJ,RAJ(extremely heavy rain for next few days). GUJ/RAJ are lucky gap between WD and SWM was too less are benefited by both. Meanwhile entire southern penisular India shows no cloud cover - indicating rapid axis shift towards north/central India.

Avtansh said...

sset, which IMD do you refer to? Is it a figment of your imagination? Red Alert - Where has that come from? No part of India is under 'red alert'. Only South Rajasthan is under yellow alert (lowest threat); Other parts of Rajasthan are under 'heatwave' and even Konkan or Gujarat is under 'Orange alert'

And what is the point of your constant comparison between Coastal Maharashtra/Gujarat and South Interior Peninsula? It is as pointless as comparing Cherrapunji with Mumbai.

I could go on and on...

sam khan said...

Hahahahahahahah, I know Avtansh which IMD SSET is talking about,( Imagination Mad department)from Navi Mummbai.

rajesh said...

Monday Rainfall till 5.30 pm IST for Mumbai: Scruz 88 mms, Vagaries 44 mms (from mid night), Colaba 18 mms.

Vinod said...

Rajesh Sir,
The way it rained today since morning I taught we would be close to 150mm.

sset said...

navi mumbai - belapur raining like roaring waterfalls - no sign of break since 2 days.