Tuesday, June 11, 2013

 vagaries had put up the expected course of BB-3 (it had not formed then) in the current standing article on blog. With BB-3 now formed, we shall observe the course parametres like 200 hp winds, 700 trough and sea level "corridor" and estimate its path. Would not jump to conclusions now, and then change..but, will put up on vagaries tonite..

Synoptic Situation as on Tuesday Night (11th June)

1. The 200 hpa jet streams have become westerlies in the absolute North of  the sub continent.This indicates an easier movement of systems from the Bay to move inland without any sort of "resistance."

2. The UAC in Northern most regions of India and Pakistan are attracting SE winds interaction with SW winds. Along with the heated lands, it has brought about massive clouds and thunderstorms. Rawalpindi had a severe dust storm with rain on Tuesday evening.

3.The trough at the 700 hpa level will strengthen in the NWI and Northern India regions in the next few days. Due to resistance from 850 hpa level in Central India (the UAC), the upper air trough (700 hpa) will precipitate thunder showers  some severe, along the plains of UP, Haryana and the foothills of Himalayas till Saturday 15th June.  (SWM advance could be announced)

4.Today's newly formed UAC in the Bay will now, in all probability track W/NW and move along the Central Indian regions.From Thursday 13th June, precipitation will move westwards thru Orissa and Chattisgarh.

By Sunday 16th June, we may see precipitation in Gujarat and west coast of India (details later as we approach the dates), and move into Coastal Sindh and Karachi early next week.
Southern and interior peninsula may see a relatively "less rainfall" period till Monday 17th.

We will monitor this daily, and On Thursday, vagaries will put up another detailed forecast schedule...

Mumbai: Rainfall remaining weak till Saturday. Increase in rains from Saturday.
Delhi NCR: Some showers on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Rainfall in 24 hrs period around 15 -20 mms.

Chennai generally cloudy.

Kolkata chances of Thundershower in some parts on Thursday.Major rainfall still evasive in Bengal.


Much Awaited SWM Toppers list as on 10th June. On Stats and Analysis Page....from Pradeep (of-course)

20 comments:

rajesh said...

Jayesh: Lake levels shall put tomorrow.
Nilesh Ladhad: More rains from UAC in 2 days for sure
Sam: yes, west coast will benefit from Saturday again
Atul: GSB has given some good ref books..we shall ask him. I shall also refer some to you

sam khan said...

Thank you sir for your prompt reply, hope the rains remain steady on saturday and sunday with good figures in mm.

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir ,
I have always noticed that weekends in Mumbai are most of the time wet, then other days throughout the week, during the monsoon season.

Amit said...

Rajesh Sir,
So the UAC in Bay will bring rains to Vidarbha. Will it be heavy?
Amit

emkay said...

Rajeshbhai, a small doubt - When you say westerlies doesnt it mean a direction originating from West to East. But I am not mistaken you meant 200 hpa is showing winds in East-West direction. Thus should be Easterlies right ?

rajesh said...

Amit: Yes it seems so, but let us see the exact track of the system..should be trhu Central India

Emkay: Yes. Westerlies have shifetd to the abs North of the Indian region

Abhijit said...

Thanks to overnight heavy rain in Kalyan to Badlapur belt. So some rain figures ending 8.30am today.(12-06-2013) Ulhasnagar 68.2mm, Ambernath 60mm, Kalyan & Murbad 29mm.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

no rain since last 2 days. Sun is playing hide and seek.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

rain hardly for 2 minutes

rohitaros said...

Belgaum( population:6 lakhs) ,has a very pleasant climate .. Nights are always cool and comfortable throughout the year ..Its cool in the rains ..It is located on the other side(east) of the ghats on the deccan plateau..Its a welcome relief from the warm and humid climate of Goa ..

Past 10 year averages for Belgaum AP-

Jan : 30.1/13.5 , Feb:32.5/15.1 ,Mar:35 /17.8 , Apr:36 /20, May:34.7/20.9, Jun:29.1/20.7,
... Jul:26.7/20.3 , Aug:26.6/19.9 , Sep:27.9/19.4, Oct:29.6 /18.7 , Nov:29.4 /16.7 , Dec:29.1 / 14.3 ..

Annual Rain-104 cms ,Annual avg temp -30.5/18.1(24.3)
Highest temp-39.4 c (20th Apr 2004) , Lowest temp- 07.2 c (16th Jan 2012)

rohitaros said...

Dharwad (estimated) : Jan : 30 / 14, Feb:33 /15 ,Mar:36 /18 , Apr:37 /20, May:36 /21, Jun:30 /21, Jul:28 /21 , Aug:28 /20 , Sep:29/19 , Oct:30 /19 , Nov:30 /17 , Dec:29 / 14 ..

Annual Rain-90 cms

rohitaros said...

Delhi , the capital of India ..It is here that the ruling class discuss in AC lounges how to improve the rich , poor and whomsoever in between ..It has progressed(?) from the khadi to the suit/tie mould ..Outside, the real Delhi can blow hot and cold with its sub -tropical climate.. Being on the edge of the deserts , has variations in monsoon rains ..

Best season to visit - Oct to Mar

Past 10 year averages for New Delhi(SFD)-
...
Jan : 20.5/07.5 , Feb:25.1/11.1 ,Mar:31.6/16.4 , Apr:37.3 /21.7, May:39.9/25.6, Jun:39.1/27.7,
Jul:35.8/27.3, Aug:34.5/26.6 , Sep:34/24.8, Oct:33 /19.3 , Nov:28.3 /13.2 , Dec:22.9/08.6 ..

Annual Rain-78 cms ,Annual avg temp -31.8/19.2 (25.5)
Highest temp-45.7 c (23rd May 2013) , Lowest temp- 0.2 c (8th Jan 2006)

rajesh said...

Rainfall increasing in Vid. from Wednesday night.On Wednesday, Bhramapuir had 54 mms of rain. Other stsions had minimal rains. Nagpur 5 mms and Gondia 4 mms.
Increase in rains for Vid next 3 days. Good precipitation expected in Vid from Thursday thru Saturday. Akola region will get heavy showers on Thursday and Friday.Decreasing thereafter, but by then soil would have retained enough moisture.
Other prominent rainfall on Wednesday upto 5.30 pm IST: Mumbai Colaba 27 mms, Vagaries 16.2 mms, Scruz 12 mms, Alibag 16 mms and Bhira 39 mms.

rajesh said...

Potey ji:Rainfall increasing in Vid. from Wednesday night.On Wednesday, Bhramapuir had 54 mms of rain. Other stsions had minimal rains. Nagpur 5 mms and Gondia 4 mms.
Increase in rains for Vid next 3 days. Good precipitation expected in Vid from Thursday thru Saturday. Akola region will get heavy showers on Thursday and Friday.Decreasing thereafter, but by then soil would have retained enough moisture.
Other prominent rainfall on Wednesday upto 5.30 pm IST: Mumbai Colaba 27 mms, Vagaries 16.2 mms, Scruz 12 mms, Alibag 16 mms and Bhira 39 mms.

Unknown said...

Thanks Rajeshbhai. I have been observing considerable diff of parameters over east (Nagpur, Wardha, Chandrapur, Gondia & Bhandara) and west (akola, amravati, buldhana and washim districts. ....Potey

Nilesh Ladhad said...

just couple of passing showers lasting a minute or two

Neeraj said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Neeraj said...

It seems monsoon has already reached Karachi and yet to reach Kathmandu. Wasn't it supposed to reach Kathmandu around now and Karachi maybe after two and half weeks (going by the normal progression date of monsoon) ?

rajesh said...

Potey sab:All of Vidharbha and in particular Western Vidharbha is expected to get heavy rainfall from the low pressure system in the Bay.
Akola district , which has received an average of 86 mms against a monthly normal of 135 mms, is doing fairly well this monsoon. Murtijapur and Barshitakhli have done extremely well with around 75 % of the June rainfall already received.
Akola City has received 72 mms of its 140 mm June quota.
With sowing operations in swing, it may be noted that heavy showers are expected in Akola next 3 days.

sam khan said...

moderate continous showers with 2-3 heavy falls here at Vasai, from 3pm -6.30pm.