Thursday, June 06, 2013

7th June 2013: SWM advances into South Konkan and S.Maharashtra and most parts of AP...see Monsoon Advance Page for Updated Map..

Mumbai Expected to get heavy rains on Friday: Heavy Thunder Storm expected on Friday afternoon /evening as Upper air trough at 700 hpa forms and aligns itself as an off shore trough. Since morning, the sea level pressure is low at 1003 mb, and humidity high.
 

Upper air trough expected to "push into the coast" in the N.Konkan region by Sunday.
Sunday Mumbai should see heavy rains. I would put accumulated rainfall from Friday 7th -Friday 14th at around 220 mms...

SWM advancing into S.Konkan  today...


Monsoon Outlook bright for forecasted Advance along  West Coast:
(For detailed learners, see note on yesterday’s blog first, and then proceed with this blog)

With the expected formation of an upper air trough (at 700 hpa), roughly in the 20N line in the Arabian Sea, we see enhanced prospects of the Monsoon “respecting” vagaries’ expected date of arrival along the west coast of India.
This trough is expected to extend Eastwards, and form an off shore west coast trough, tilting westwards by Friday 7th.

On Thursday 6th, we see an embedded UAC near 60E (off the Oman coast). 
Soon, within 2 days, it will align itself from Saurashtra  downwards thru  Konkan  upto  Kerala.

As the SW wind strength and depth will be upto the 700 hpa levels, we can expect the Monsoon to  advance into Goa and South Konkan by Friday 7th. Heavy falls expected in Goa and South Konkan next 2 /3 days.

Seemingly good support from a NW India upper air low, we can safely assume SWM to move into North Konkan and Mumbai by Sunday, 9th. (a day later than vagaries’ forecast map).

Evening Thunder Showers in parts of Mumbai on Thursday, increasing on Friday and Saturday.
 Rain Amount (average) for Friday and Saturday:  10 mms/day. Sunday we can expect a slight  increase in rainfall amounting to 15-20 mms.
Outer townships: Friday  almost all regions can get thunder showers.  can expect heavy thunder showers on Saturday and Sunday. Rain amounts will be more than Mumbai figures.
Thunder Showers in the evening for Pune..though not very clear of SWM advance this week end !
Saurashtra will be getting thunder showers and rains this week end.
Though estimating rains in Saurashtra, Surat may not get the full brunt of rains till middle of next week

SWM Advance Forecast Map Updated  on Wednesday to cover Sub-Continent...See Monsoon Advance Position Page


32 comments:

Anthony Dmello said...

Cloudy skies over Goa. Even though IMD has declared Monsoon has already reached Goa no sign of the same. Very hot and humid. Maybe tomorrow we can expect rain

rohitaros said...

SW (Jun –Sep) Rainfall over the south Indian peninsula (south of 9.5 N latitude) :
1) Area : approx 50,000 sq.kms (Includes states of Kerala and Tamilnadu)
2) The least rainfall during SWM in India is not received by any place in Rajasthan or Ladakh region but by the beautiful sea side place called ‘Tiruchendur’ (8.48 N / 78.1 E @ Tuticorin,Tamilnadu)- 2.08 cms !!
3) South western Tamilnadu comes under an extreme rainshadow zone – rainfall ranges between 2 cms to 90 cms(western Kanyakumari district) .Below 15 cms in most places in south TN.
These regions receive 55-80 cms of annual rain thanks to NE monsoons.
4) Southernmost tip of the Indian mainland gets only 23 cms of SW monsoon rain.
5) The SW monsoon rain decreases from Kollam (130 cms) to Poovar (65 cms ) at south kerala coast.
6) The rainfall towards the windward side of ghats show rainfall of 150-300 cms .This rainfall is also less compared to the stations towards northern Kerala.
7) Least rain in Kerala during SW monsoons is found on the lee of ghats .Chinnar -> 16 cms !!
-----------------------------
Kerala to Tamilnadu ->

Alappuzha (165 cms) - > Kanjirappally(250 cms)-> Peerumedu(310 cms) ->Kumily (80 cms)->-> Gudalur(27 cms)-> Watrap(15 cms) -> Virudhunagar(15 cms)-> Pamban (5 cms)]

Kollam (130 cms) - > Punalur (170 cms) -> ->Shencottah( 46 cms) -> Tirunelveli ( 6 cms) - > Tiruchendur(2.08 cms)

rohitaros said...

Goa - the land of fun ,frolic and b(r)eaches.. and yes, some sunny ,warm weather..
Almost similar weather like Mumbai most of the times ..
Best season to visit : climate wise- Nov to Feb , otherwise-anytime ..

Past 10 year averages of North Goa plains [Ratnagiri averages are considered ,as they are more representative of North Goa climate than Panjim]-
...
Jan : 32.3/18.2 , Feb:32.3/18.9 ,Mar:32.6/21.7 , Apr:33 /24.2, May:33.5/25.8, Jun:30.7/24.8,
Jul:29/24.3, Aug:28.9/24.1 , Sep:29.7/23.7, Oct:33.1 /23.1 , Nov:34.1 /21.9 , Dec:33.3/19.5 ..

Annual Rain-329 cms ,Annual avg temp -31.9/22.5 (27.2)
Highest temp-40.6 c (16th March 2011) , Lowest temp- 11.6 c (9th Feb 2008)

GSB said...

There is a nice weather app that can be downloaded from envirocon.in that gives live weather updates of Thane city.....

Rajesh sir the cloud cover over most parts of the country looks as if we are in the end June or mid July period. Hope this dosent fizzle out....

Rohit...great info. Let's also hear about some hill stations....my trip this month got cancelled unfortunately. Looking forward to the intense Mumbai rains of June......

Abhijit said...

Pune & Nashik got huge TS rain today in evening period.

Pune city (Shivajinagar) 36mm rain till 8.30pm today of past 12hrs

Nashik 54mm rain till 8.30pm today of past 12hrs.

Abhijit said...

Badlapur had TS of medium shower from 6.30pm till 8.30pm today

rajesh said...

Rohit: excellent analysis of Kerala and TN states' rainfall.
And you have nicely "bisected" the land of sun and beaches...Goa !

Thursday's Vagaries was satisfactory, as most of the specified regions got the heavy rainfall..South Marathwada (Parbhani 51 mms)Nizamambad and Pune.

Mumbai rains will surely pick up from Saturday as mentioned.
Saturday Thunder showers, and heavier on Sunday..

rajesh said...

Nilesh Ladhad: The Monsoon in Sambhalpur should arrive by 13-15th June..see the vagaries' advance map ...then outskirts of your city will turn lush green

Vinod said...

Hope so we get rains on saturday...if it does i will surely go out and get wet

Vinod said...

Hope so we get rains on saturday...if it does i will surely go out and get wet

sam khan said...

lots of flashing and mild thunder towards the western side in the Arabain sea, looks like a thunderstorm is approaching from the Arabian sea,here at Vasai.also at 5.am had a mild thundershower.dark clouds are spreading in from the sea side.

anant said...

What is the outlook for interior maharastra next three days ?

Abhijit said...

Nashik district rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today(07-06-2013)

Malegaon 58
Baglan 60
Kalwan 16
Nandgaon 29
Surgana 4
Nashik city 60 & IMD 55.6
Dindori 39
Igatpuri 34
Peth 12
Niphad 23
Sinnar 49
Yevla 5
Chandwad 18.5
Trimbakeshwar 42
Devali 18

rohitaros said...

Nagpur(population:25 lakhs), the centre of India(geographically).It is the largest city in central India and winter capital of Maharashtra .Also called the orange city .
The greenest and one of the cleanest city in the country , ironically it is also one of the hottest city in the country in summers.It lies in Vidarbha region which is the hottest region in the world in May .Climate is good during other seasons.
Best season to visit : Oct to Feb .

Past 10 year averages for Nagpur Airport-
...
Jan : 29.4/12.8 , Feb:32.6/15.6 ,Mar:37.2/19.7 , Apr:41.1 /24.1 , May:43.5/27.9, Jun:38.3/26.7,
Jul:31.7/24.2, Aug:31.3/23.7 , Sep:32.7/22.2, Oct:33.1 /18.8 , Nov:31.5 /16.3 , Dec:29.8/13.1 ..

Annual Rain-114 cms ,Annual avg temp -34.4/20.4(27.4)
Highest temp-47.9 c (22nd May 2013) , Lowest temp- 05.6 c (9th Jan 2013)

rohitaros said...

@ Rajesh sir : thanks for your encouraging comments :)

@ GSB : thanks ..:)
but really bad that your trip got cancelled .. but there is always next time :)

rohitaros said...

Indian summers 2013 till now (available readings) (please add/correct if wrong):

Highest max temp: 48.6 c (Sriganganagar,Raj)
Highest min temp : 34.8 c (Gwalior.. not sure ?)
Highest avg daily temp:Chandrapur (41.2 c .. 48.2/34.2..)
Maximum heat index : Chandbali ,Orissa (58.1 .. 37.5 c /67 %)

Vijayanand said...

rohitaros , thanks for the info.

Can you kindly if possible share climate data on coastal cities of North Kerala, Karnataka , Goa and Maharashtra.

rajesh said...

Rohit: I shall put up your details of some cities on Stats and Analysis pages as required by some readers..

Drizzle since 45 mins at Mahalaxmi..just 1.5 mms but steady with thunder..3.15 pm IST

Vijayanand said...

Steady rain in south bangalore. Its been raining steadily for last 15 min.

Puneet Bangera said...

Thundershowers lashed Dombivli & gaved Heavy Rains for 10 min-3:15 IST.

Nimish Thaker said...

Light / Moderate rain with light thundering at Andheri since the last 30 mins.

Abhijit said...

Badlapur having medium rains from past 1 and half hour with medium thundering & lightening.

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir, currently Very heavy rains in Vasai for 20 mins , with lightning and thunder.

rohitaros said...

Heavy rains at Andheri for past 15 minutes with thunder

rohitaros said...

Kozhikode ,North Kerala ..God's own country ..Seems God likes it warm and humid ..
The region lacks winters ..Dec /Jan averages 33/23..Monsoons are when the temp are lowest(29/24) ..But its humid during monsoons ..April is the warmest month..
In fact , Kerala is warmer than Chennai from Nov to Feb ..

Best season : Dec , Jan ,May (though its almost uniformly warm and humid)
... good for a plate of rice curry and coconut water..

Past 10 year averages for Kozhikode,Kerala-

Jan : 33/23.2 , Feb:33.5/24 ,Mar:34.1/25.7 , Apr:34.5 /26.4, May:33.4/26.1, Jun:30.7/24.4,
Jul:29.7/24 , Aug:29.9/24 , Sep:30.8/24.2, Oct:31.9 /24.4 , Nov:32.5 /24.1 , Dec:32.9 / 23.2 ..

Annual Rain-326 cms ,Annual avg temp -32.2/24.5(28.4)
Highest temp-36.8 c (20th Apr 2012) , Lowest temp- 19.9 c (7th Dec 2006)

sset said...

Navi Belapur raining since 3pm! Non stop rains till 10pm and now also continuing. Seems it is targeting >100mm? It seems west coast facing MAHA strengthened rapidly and now seems advancing GUJ/RAJ. With advancement rains will stop over south India - and interior may not get rain till SEPT (which is bad).

Rohit - India driest place is SE India and not Kutch/Jaiselmar. Past 10years Kutch/Jaiselmar is getting more rains.

rajesh said...

heavy rains in Mahalaxmi now..started at 22;20 pm IST...colaba received 34 mms till 8.30 pm ...vagaries measured 8 mms till 22;20 pm and adding now...

rohitaros said...

@ SSET : Please read my comment above ..some excerpts :

"SW (Jun –Sep) Rainfall over the south Indian peninsula (south of 9.5 N latitude) :"

"2) The least rainfall during SWM in India is not received by any place in Rajasthan or Ladakh region but by the beautiful sea side place called ‘Tiruchendur’ (8.48 N / 78.1 E @ Tuticorin,Tamilnadu)- 2.08 cms !!
"

rajesh said...

see stats page for Rohit's analysis

Nimish Thaker said...

Heavy rains with moderate Thunder activity in Juhu area since 10:00 PM. Prior to that we had light showers. My cousin from Kandivali (E) reports of water logging in some areas of Kandivali East.

Nimish Thaker said...

How ironic is it that the Mumbai Doppler goes under 'Test' when the action starts? Looks to me like they have decided to pull the radar offline in the rains, they will put it back online once the dry season starts so that there is no rain related damage. How protective.

Atul Naik said...

Ratnagiri is 240 kms from Panjim and nearly 200 kms from N Goa border. Why not use averages of Panjim only for N Goa instead of using Ratnagiri averages?