Tuesday, June 18, 2013


City Forecast for Wednesday, 19th June:

Mumbai can expect cloudy skies, with sunny and bright intervals as the day progresses.
showers at times, with a few heavy.Showers amounting to around average 30 mms will be distributed during the day. Hence not very persisting showers.

Pune: Cloudy skies, with brisk Westerlies blowing. Light rains in some parts, with the odd medium shower possible. Rain amount 7-10 mms.

Surat, cloudy, but brightening bu late afternoon. A couple of showers possible, an amount less than 10 mms possible.

Kolkata: a couple of showers in the day. The odd one can be heavy in some parts. Rain amount would be around 15 mms though.

Delhi NCR: Though it will be almost calm, Sparse clouding could prevent the sun from shooting the day over 36c. No system to  precipitate any rain over NCR.


x----------------------------x------------------------------x--------------------------------x
Immiedietly on Setting, SWM throws its weight in many States of India. Severe flooding of main rivers in Uttarakhand has left many dead and marooned
Some Prominent Rainfall Amounts in cms in 24 hrs ended Tuesday Morning (17th June):

In Uttarakhand: Dehra Dun 37, Mukteshwar 24, Hardwar 22, Uttar Kashi (CWC) 21, Kosani 21, Haldwani 20, Nainital 18, Tharali 17, Tehri 17, Tehri (CWC) 17, Deoprayag 16, Bageshwar 16, Mussoorie 15, Roorkee 15

In UP: Saharanpur 20, Harpur 16, Narora 16, Nakur 15
In HP:Paonta Sahib 41, Kalpa 19, Renuka 15, Sangrah 11

In Haryana, Delhi and C'Garh:Chhachhrauli 27, Chhachrauli (ARG) 27, Bilaspur 27, Jagadhari 26, Delhi (Palam) 12

In MP: Gohad gets 23 cms.

In Gujarat: Khambhalia 21, Babra 18, Rajula 15, Lathi 14, Hansot (ARG) 18, Hansot 14, Pardi (ARG) 14, Balasinor 12, Halol 12, Mahesana 12

In Konkan :Matheran 27, Uran 26, Panvel 26, Karjat 23, Mumbai (Colaba) 21, Khalapur 20, Pen 19, Ambernath 19, Khed 17, Murbad 17, Ulhasnagar 16, Mumbai (Santacruz) 15
Mahableshwar 29 cms


In Kerala :Irikkur 18, Kannur 18, Piravom 14, Vadakara 12


All Model Calculations go for a toss..a fresh Voretx form unexpectedly, overnight, off the N.Konkan coast. Subsequent strengthening of the trough off the West Coast of India..
Embedded Vortex seen strongest till 700 hp level ..
Mumbai sees rain force gaining again..can raise estimate to 100-125 mms next 24 hrs



50 comments:

Abhijit said...

Heavy rain in Badlapur with lightening &
thundering also gusty winds so current temp
is 23c .Enjoying cool weather.

Abhijit said...

One vertical lightening grounded here just
now so severe thunder sound in Badlapur. It's. continues thundering here like evening easterly TS now !!

Nimish Thaker said...

Thanks for the update Rajeshbhai, so what is the forecast for Mumbai - today and tomorrow?

Also, a bit unusual to see so much Thunder and Lightning activity after the Monsoon has set-in and that too after receiving nearly 30% of the season's rain. Is the Vortex formation an unusual event in any way for Mumbai?

rajesh said...

NT: vortice do form in off shore troughs..so nothing unusual. But, this overnight vortex formed without any "provocation". and showed almost no indications till mid night (last night)..and in a way, on hind site, seems to have been strengthened by the weakening of the UAC in Raj..all too sudden..given my revised expectations..and lightening due to 700 hp vortex. Taking clouds to multi levels..all on "cloud 9" :-)

salil said...

SO rajesh Sir we expect same sunday rains, mumbai will flood again

kaushik nayak said...

Mumbai's miseries are going to continue. with increasing population,there are no open spaces or fresh air to breathe.In monsoon people have no place to walk or drive.Rain related diseases have increased.Intensity of rain is going to increase with increasing temperatures. God save the city.

SVT said...

Last night I commented that Mumbai might get heavy rains today but I wasnt really expecting over 100 mm of rains.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

sir what about western odisha. Now it is hot, humid and sunny. No rain since last 3 days

Abhijit said...

It's completely dark like 7pm here in Badlapur and raining heavily with thundering.

Again one lightening grounded with sever thunder sound in NW direction at 1.50pm today .

sam khan said...

Bumper bonus rains for Mumbai torrential downpour once more may be from evening or tonite.record rains in June for Mumbai.

sam khan said...

rajesh sir ,
will the rains be surplus in July on the west coast.


emkay said...

I think the incoming W.D must have prevented a followup BB-4 - which if it happened may have literally brought the country under water !!

Nimish Thaker said...

Very heavy rain on at Andheri since the last 30 minutes. This is the heaviest spell of the day currently here at Andheri.

When is this rain likely to taper down? Soon? Later?? Never???

Abhijit said...

Heavy rain lashing to Amberanth- Badlapur belt news in Star Majha ,IBN Lokmat & Zee 24 Taas Marathi news channel . So some live snaps of it from 3pm news today posted on Vagaries FB .

Kalyan- Badlapur road completely stopped from last 1hrs due water logging at many spots between Ambernath - Badlapur patch. Local Trains of CR are also late in this belt.

sam khan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sam khan said...

heavy rains going on in Vasai.

Puneet Bangera said...

DOMBIVLI MIDC FLOODED TODAY AS NALLAH OVERFLOWN DUE TO HEAVY RAINS LASHING IN DOMBIVLI.

rohitaros said...

It gets cold in the Himalayas..

Kalpa @8.4 /4.4 ..65 mms ..Kalpa has received 88 cms of rain..Monsoons ..33.5 cms (annual average:71 cms) ..Did it snow in the higher reaches of Kinnaur ?

Nahan ..19 /13 ..38.3 cms monsoon rain ..total 68 cms ..

rohitaros said...

A Popular perception is Mumbai is an island and a coastal city , hence its topography is -low lands , plains only ..
Fact : Mumbai island and its surrounding regions have numerous hillocks and hill ranges -

Mumbai island hills -> 1) National Park hills (parallel to the coast ,lenght :15 kms ,located around 12 kms inland from the western coast ) - Highest elevation : 462 mtrs

... 2) Hills between Anik and Chembur ( near Thane creek) : Highest elevation : 304 mtrs
3) Asalpha hills (near Vikhroli,4 kms from Thane creek) :Highest elevation :205 mtrs
4) Malabar hill(Churni road,near west coast):Highest elevation:50 mtrs
5) Gilbert Hillock ,Andheri..around 61 mtrs above the surroundings
6) Pali Hill ,Bandra ..

Puneet Bangera said...

Heard a loud thunder and seen severe lightning in dombivli today.

rohitaros said...

A point to be noted is tht many news channels use the word 'floods' while describing water logging in Mumbai .. But the word 'floods' is misleading for Mumbai ..It should be 'water logged in some areas' .. Mumbai doesnt have any significant river to get flooded ..It is a coastal city and the water accumulated in some of its low lying areas generally disperses off during low tide of the sea .. Even during 26th July (94.4 cms at SCZ in around 15 hrs ) , the water accumulated in Mumbai dispersed in 4-6 hrs at most places,after the rains stopped ..

rohitaros said...

Tribute to monsoons -

When the Earth bakes , when sweat trickles ..
Nowhere to go ,suddenly the heavens open ..
Rain spreads earthy perfume, the sweat dissapears..
A feel of freshness appears :)

Nimish Thaker said...

Looking at the current satellite image in the Lightning map it appears that the Vortex may have weakened. But then, I could be wrong. Will await current analysis and forecast for Mumbai and surrounding areas from Rajeshbhai.

sset said...

Mumbai almost touching 1000m in 10days for month of june. With 15days more to go and lows continue - june can touch 1800-2000mm!!!! Samji any comments (u had maximum laugh - sorry)

Entire south interior KAR,rayalseema,TN no rains - desert like conditions. Will rains revive here or they prefer to stick north?

sset said...

Chennai touching almost 40degrees while in Mumbai we are eager to have glimpse of Sun!

sset said...

Another point - Maharashtra this june experienced at multiple places, multiple times rains nearing 300-350mm in 24hours. But KAR,KER it was just 150-180mm.

Mumbai had consistent rains in multiples of 100s and 200s- this Mumbai in top against Augumbe,Mangalore,Madikeri..

sset said...

Why can't vortex form over KARNATAKA,KERALA - sorry for this question.

sset said...

Why can't vortex form over KARNATAKA,KERALA - sorry for this question.

kaushik nayak said...

The reason is because of rapid urbanisation in mumbai and surrounding places.The forests are reduced to concrete jungles.The avg variation in min/max temperatures is high. This has caused single day rainfall to increase in mumbai and Thane over last 10 years.whereas if you consider central konkan, goa & coastal karnataka, it is generally constant and rainfall is still normal. A huge threat for mumbai.

rohitaros said...

Rajkot (population : 20 lakhs) , is famous for its food and history ..A colourful , vibrant city located in Saurashtra(Gujarat) , it can be the hottest city in India in October(alongwith Gujarat,Southwest Raj) ..

Past 10 year averages for Rajkot AP-

Jan : 28.6/12.3 , Feb:31.7/15 ,Mar:36.7 /19.5 , Apr:40 /23, May:40.9/25.6, Jun:37.5/26.5,
Jul:32.8/25.2 , Aug:31.4/24.3 , Sep:33.1/23.9, Oct:36 /22.1 , Nov:33.5 /18.8 , Dec: 30/14.3 ..

Annual Rain-86 cms ,Annual avg temp -34.4/20.8(27.6 c)
Highest temp:45.8 c (5th May 2004) , Lowest temp: 02.6 c (27th Jan 2008)

emkay said...

Seems latest gfs still shows a -20 degree over Mumbai

Nimish Thaker said...

It looks like a new Vortex has engulfed Mumbai as per latest GFS runs. The morning vortex is reduced to a small area in the Gulf of Cambay. Yet the rains reduced from evening onwards.

sam khan said...

Mr SSET the rains on the west coast are going to weaken very soon so the point of Mumbai crossing 1000mm is not possible.if i predict 10,000 mm for Mumbai' but reality will always remain reality,mumbai's total cannot cross 3500 mm(maximum) as per your prediction Mumbai will not see sun for four months, from thursday onwards there is sunshine with less rains,soooo my laughter continues Mr SSET HAHAHAHHAHAHHA

sam khan said...

Looks like again Mumbai is instored for heavy rains. Mumbai is going to see waterfalls tommorow our MR sset has predicted downpours for Mumbai crossing 2000mm in June no sun only darkness three months.

SVT said...

Loving the banter between Sam and Sset.:D On a serious note rain should ease over Mumbai for next 5-6 days unless overnight vortex again pops up.;)

sam khan said...

oh no, i m not serious just pulling the legs of Sset

Vijayanand said...

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/INXX0081:1?interactiveMapLayer=sat&baseMap=h&zoom=7

Appears like kerela and karnataka cosatline might be heading for some wet weather.

Vijayanand said...

Dear sset : mangalore and udupi is close to touching 100 cms in june. Its been above average start.

Abhijit said...

Thane District rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today (19-06-2013) :

Thane 70.2
Kalyan 70
Murbad 54
Bhivandi 50
Vasai 80
Wada 57
Shahapur 48.4
Dahanu 114
Palghar 151.8
Javhar 13
Mokhada 7.2
Talasari 53
Ulhasnagar 104.2
Ambernath 61.2
Vikramgadh 33

sam khan said...

Sunny days are here atlast in Vasai.

sam khan said...

Feeling so fresh after 18 days of wet weather, the sun is out atlast as predicted by Rajesh sir .

Abhijit said...

Raigad District rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today(19-06-2013)

Alibaug 34.2
Panvel 68
Karjat 135.5
Khalapur 116
Uran 43
Sudhagad 87
Pen 90.1
Mahad 92.2
Mangaon 105
Roha 104
Poladpur 94
Murud 37
Shriwardhan 63
Mahasala 48.2
Tala 79

Abhijit said...

Ratnagiri district rainfall in mm till 8.30am today(19-06-2013)

Chiplun 46
Dapoli 107.4
Khed 135.5
Gughagar 74
Mandangad 93
Ratnagiri 101.8
Sangameshwar 31
Rajapur 90
Lanja 62.2

Abhijit said...

Sindhudurg district rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today(19-06-2013)

Devgad 82
Malwan 95
Sawantwadi 58
Vengurla 82
Kankawali 53
Kudal 25
Vaibhavwadi 80
Dodamarg 35

rohitaros said...

Highest SWM rain in Maharashtra (till 19th June , 8.30 am) :
Dapoli ( Ratnagiri) : 145.1 cms ..

Lowest SWM rain in Maharashtra(till 19th June , 8.30 am) : Pathardi,Ahmadnagar: 2.5 cms ..

sam khan said...

moderate rains are back in Vasai . raining since 20 mins.

rohitaros said...

Maharashtra's district headquarters SW monsoon rainfall (till 19th Jun 2013) :
(Highest: Dapoli (Ratnagiri)145.2 cms , Lowest :Pathardi (Ahmadnagar)2.5 cms

A) Konkan division--
Mumbai city : 81.2 cms
Mumbai suburban:82.2 cms
Thane city: 85.6 cms
Panvel(Raigad) : 93.9 cms
Ratnagiri: 91.1 cms
Malvan(Sindhudurg) : 76.2 cms

B) Madhya Maharashtra--
Pune city: 22.1 cms
Satara city: 20.6 cms
Nashik city: 14.6 cms
Ahmadnagar city : 10.1 cms
Kolhapur city: 12.6 cms
Jalgaon City :15.8 cms
Dhule City: 09.9 cms
Nandurbar city : 11.2 cms
Sangli city : 08 cms
Solapur city : 05.7 cms

C) Marathwada --
Aurangabad city : 09.7 cms
Latur city : 07.6 cms
Parbhani city : 14.4 cms
Nanded city : 15.5 cms
Jalna city : 10.2 cms
Osmanabad city : 08.8 cms
Hingoli city : 18.2 cms
Beed city : 05.5 cms

D) Vidarbha --
Nagput city : 17.1 cms
Amravati city : 23.9 cms
Akola city : 23.8 cms
Wardha city : 27.3 cms
Buldhana city : 16.7 cms
Yavatmal city : 17.7 cms
Chandrapur city : 25.1 cms
Bhandara city : 20.6 cms
Gondia city : 13.4 cms
Washim city : 34.1 cms
Gadchiroli: 27.3 cms

rohitaros said...

Ashok Bhai's interview on ETV :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlpvwY33baI

Ron said...

an imd delhi official came on cnn ibn and claimed the respite is still 22nd and then heavy rains again in the north/north west region...any reasons for concern in the north??

Hemant Sonawane's Studio said...

This blog has been maintained with commendable effort! Congratulations, Thanks and All the Best!