Sunday, June 16, 2013

 SWM moves in to Kutch...95 mms rain in Anjar, 75 mms in Mundra, 52 mms in Gandhdham (Kutch) and 38 mms in Rapar and 32 mms in Nakhatrana...good enough begining for Kutch..Posted on Monday 17th Evening

Rainfall Figures in mms for Raigadh and Thane District as on Monday Morning 17 th june...see Mumbai Page for complete List

1. BB-3 has fizzled out on sea level, but maintains strength as an UAC.
2. The UAC in the Arabian Sea, at the head of the off shore trough, will stabilise more prominently in the South Gujarat region, and get the trough in a "vertical" position.
The UAC will move NE and cross Gujarat coast near Veraval on Sunday night.

Resultantly: On Monday 17th: Heavy rains in South Gujarat (Surat >100mms and Bharuch), South coastal Saurashtra (Veraval and East of it),  In Guj: Ahmadabad, Baroda, Surat, Bharuch, Gandhinagar, Bhavnagar and Palanpur).
Monday very heavy rains in Uttarakhand and adjoining UP and some sharp showers in adjoining NCR.

Tuesday 18th: Heavy rains in region where Guj/Raj/MP borders meet. In MP:Indore, Ujjain, Ratlam, Barwani and In Rajasthan:Kota, Udaipur and Banswara.

Wednesday 19th: Rains move towards Delhi NCR as UAC gets weaker. The trough runs from Delhi SW towards Gujarat. 

Next 3 days: West coast gets good rainfall as trough remains intact.
Rainfall for a day more in Nagpur. Monday may see showers and about 5-10 mms of rain. But sharp decrease from Tuesday, and day temperature climbing to 34/35c in East Vidharbha again.Showers continue in Western Vidharbh.

South Eastern Peninsula remains almost dry. Chennai cloudy but just a stray shower possible.

Mumbai: Rainfall decreasing from Monday. Monday will be cloudy and 3/4 showers, some heavy. Tuesday and Wednesday will see sunny intervals. Occasional showers next 3 days. Some showers will be heavy but not prolonged. Rain amount for Monday 35 mms, Tuesday and Wednesday 25-30 mms (average).
Outer townships will see some sharp longer duration showers on Monday, but decrease in rains from Tuesday. Rainfall amounts 40-50 mms on Monday slight decrease next 2 days.
Pune: On Monday, Showers up to 10 mms in some parts. Decreasing from Tuesday .

Delhi NCR: Monday: Some showers. Eastern parts can get sharp showers adjoining UP State.Average rain amount 10-15 mms.
Decrease for a day on Tuesday, with sunny intervals, and slight increase on Wednesday in rain frequency.Average rain amount for Wednesday 10/12 mms.

Surat: Heavy rains from Monday night thru Tuesday. Excessive amounts. Rains tapering off from Tuesday.

Isolated Thunder Showers on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in Central Sindh. Nawabshah and Sukkar have a hit and miss chance, or evening showers in the vicinity.
Islamabad also gets warmer next few days as rains move away..maybe touching 40c soon.

SWM has moved in to Nepal. Heavy showers in West Nepal on Monday. Kathmandu has recieved 130 mms in June, so around half the June total. The normal June total 236 mms will be achieved. Next 3 days will be cloudy with some evening showers. Days will be around 27c and nights 19/20c.

SWM Covers all parts of India eaxcept West Rajasthan and Part of Kutch. OLR and other humidity parameters (as per IMD) do not confirm total advance in these regions...see Monsoon Advance Page.

44 comments:

emkay said...

Thanks for the exhaustive update

rohitaros said...

Mumbai is sitting in company with the western ghats hill stations(and some west coastal towns) as far as rainfall is concerned ( 65-100 cms in a week of monsoons)..
But the point to be noted here is that it is a city of commerce , the busiest airport in South Asia and population around 2 crore people ..So ; the efforts of its citizens ,weather department officials , government officials and vagarians should be appreciated ..They keep this city buzzing and afloat every monsoon ..
Power , shops,mobile networks ,transportation , D2H are all running because of the efforts of the concerned officials/people .. Cheers to them as well..

Abhijit said...

Very Very Heavy Rain lashing Badlapur with lightening & thundering from last 40mins.

So South Mumbai's morning lightening & thundering rain shifted here in night.

Abdul Jabbar said...

Some shovers here in thar region sindh.but 60% area is without rain.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

Yes Sir,southern Odisha got very heavy rains.Northern and coastal areas got good rain. But not in Sambalpur. Sir, please forcast for Sambalpur, like Mumbai, Pune etc., if possible.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

Yes Sir,southern Odisha got very heavy rains.Northern and coastal areas got good rain. But not in Sambalpur. Sir, please forcast for Sambalpur, like Mumbai, Pune etc., if possible.

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir,
i have a query, as you have predicted that the rains will be 35mm in Mumbai as for today.but why IMD , skymet weather, bbc weather, these sites are still predicting heavy rains in Mumbai . Rain to be around 80-100mm.

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir,


If i am not mistaken i clearly remember during our monsoon watch series, you had clearly mentioned Mumbai will receive June month quota somewhat 700 mm ON THE 'DOT' SIR, WE HAVE RECEIVED 700 MM.

rajesh said...

Cmdr Potey/Aurangabad Readers:
Copy and click this link. I have written for Aurangabad district and Akola district in Lokmat

http://epaper.lokmat.com/lokmattimes/epapermain.aspx?queryed=78

Abhish said...

Rajesh sir,
It is nice to see your predictions coming true all the time. Thanks for the same.
I have a query on the remaining days of June and also July. US CPC has predicted Break monsoon due to WD coming coming up from across the border. They say lower rains in July... I read this in thehindubusinessline: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/monsoon-covers-entire-country-but-may-begin-to-weaken/article4820480.ece

I would like to know your views. Thanks again.

Unknown said...

Rajeshbhai, thanks for all updates. It has been a great help...Potey

sam khan said...

CURRENTLY
HEAVY RAINS HAS COMMENCED IN VASAI.

Neeraj said...

Raining cats and dogs - @ Kathmandu. BB3 effect ?

Abhijit said...

Thane District rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today (17-06-2013) :

Thane 145.6
Kalyan 127
Murbad 165
Bhivandi 115
Vasai 78
Wada 83
Shahapur 93
Dahanu 5.6
Palghar 56.2
Javhar 106
Mokhada 59.8
Talasari 23
Ulhasnagar 156.4
Ambernath 185.4
Vikramgadh 63

Badlapur records 262mm rain ending 8.30am today

Abhijit said...

Within Mumbai city limit(in heart of National Park hill) lakes Rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today(17-06-2013)

Tulshi lake 280
Vihar lake 169

Barvi Dam, Badlapur 247

rohitaros said...

Maharashtra cities rainfall from 1st June ->

(till today 8.30 am) Mumbai SCZ : 75.6 cms ,Ratnagiri:75.2 cms ,Akola : 21 cms , Pune : 17 cms , Nagpur : 16.5 cms, Nashik: 13 cms, Aurangabad : 8 cms , Solapur : 6 cms ..

( till yday 8.30 am)Satara : 14 cms , Ahmadnagar: 9.3 cms ..

sam khan said...

seems Mumbai is determined to give tough competition to Ratnagiri, ads far as rains are concerned.

sam khan said...

abhijit can u plz give the monsoon score of the western ghats if possible.

rohitaros said...

Mumbai city rainfall (1- 17 june 2013 till 8.30 am) - >

Mumbai SCZ : 75.6 cms ,
Mumbai CLB : 74.9 cms ,

Tulshi : 125.4 cms (source:Abhijit) ..
Vihar: 82.3 cms (source:Abhijit) ..

Abhijit said...

Raigad District rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today(17-06-2013)

Alibaug 81
Panvel 256
Karjat 231.5
Khalapur 199
Uran 260
Sudhagad 58
Pen 188.1
Mahad 93.5
Mangaon 35.2
Roha 131
Poladpur 125
Murud 61
Shriwardhan 21
Mahasala 36
Tala 87

emkay said...

So it was Panvel & Uran which were the leaders for yesterday's deluge !! 25 cms + wow !!

Abhijit said...

Ratnagiri district rainfall in mm till 8.30am today(17-06-2013)

Chiplun 124
Dapoli 115.1
Khed 173.5
Gughagar 100
Mandangad 95
Ratnagiri 62.6
Sangameshwar 102.4
Rajapur 50
Lanja 63.4

rohitaros said...

Mumbai region monsoon rainfall ( 1 -17 June ending 8.30 am ) :

Avg : 75.4 cms(19 stations) ..Highest -Tulshi: 125.4 cms ,Lowest :-Shahapur :45.5 cms ..
(source: Abhijit)

Neeraj said...

News coming from the far west of Nepal. Indo-Nepal border town Darchula on Nepali side and Dharchula on Indian side in danger of being swept away - also in danger is the hydropower plant at Dhauliganga on the indian side - they plan to open the floodgate there.

Shripad Nadiger said...

Heavy rains since past 1 hours or so in Mira road, North Mumbai...

rajesh said...

Abdul: yes, some regions only, as i had mentioned. To another reader i said some chance at Nawabshah, maybe.

Nilesh: Not possible to give so many cities forecast, as each forecast takes a very long time to calculate. But will surely inform if something specific is coming..

Sam: your query answered in "flash snippet" Monday's rainfall amounts put :-)

Abhish: Difficult to give exact break monsoon date for July..but slowing down coming from 24th June for peninsula ..shall inform on blog later

Neeraj: Not BB-3 effect, itd the UAC i the North that has formed a trough..was expecting heavy rains in West Nepal anyway..keep us posted

Abhijit said...

Badlapur having intermittent spells of rain some are heavy with gusty SW winds. Currently heavy spell on here

Neeraj said...

http://www.nepalnews.com/archive/2013/jun/jun17/news12.php

Go to the above link to read the news about the flood at indo-nepalese border and see the video.

emkay said...

Seeing IR satpic now, as clearly mentioned in blog the clouds marching northeast to Delhi, now over northwest MP

emkay said...

Seeing IR satpic now, as clearly mentioned in blog the clouds marching northeast to Delhi, now over northwest MP

sset said...

Rajesh sir - I think IMD has put wrong figures today - says colaba 210mm and Santa Cruz 150mm, probably they forgot decimal point, as a result both places are showing as 750mm in region weather report.

sset said...

or I am wrong?

sset said...

or it may be true - Abhiji stats show almost 200mms

SVT said...

Wont be surprise if we get heavy rains tomorrow. Slim chance though.

sam khan said...

Heavy rains started at Vasai for 15 mins.. currently going on

Unknown said...

Good Morning Mr.Rajesh, are we stll maintaing the original forecast of about 25 to 30 mm for Mumbai today or is there a change likely? Suresh

sam khan said...

its raining heavily with thunder at vasai

Vinod said...

Not raining here in malad but yes can hear thundering..

sam khan said...

After one hour of heavy downpour rains have become light, thunder & lightning continues. at Vasai

Abhijit said...

Mumbai Rainfall : Colaba 39.2mm ,
Santacruz 18.5mm ending 8.30am today

Abhijit said...

Panji 86mm ending 8.30am today. So
back on track after lull of few days..

rajesh said...

So Mumbai IMd station average for Monday 29 mms...our estimate 35 mms...vagaries 28 mms till 8.30 am

Delhi Avg actual 21 mms..against our estimate of 10-15 mms

Atul Naik said...

Rainfall (mm) recorded in Goa State as at 0830 Hrs 18-06-2013. Total from June 1 till June 18, 8.30 am in Bracket

Mapusa 119.0 (612.0)
Pernem 122.6 (761.2)
Ponda 048.2 (538.1)
Panaji 086.0 (520.0)
Valpoi 083.7 (648.0)
Canacona 087.8 (513.4)
Dabolim 050.5 (603.7)
Margao 087.3 (566.3)
Mormugao 050.2 (554.0)
Quepem 068.8 (601.2)
Sanguem 069.6 (631.4)

emkay said...

Seems the offshore trough has strengthened from Kerala to Konkan !!