Posted on Sunday @ 20.00 hrs IST on 23rd June
BB-4 is positioned off the Orissa coast and at 996 mb pressure. It has an associated Upper Air Trough towards the SW, in the interior Orissa and Chattisgarh/Vidarbha region.
The system moves Westwards on Monday.
Sunday Night/Monday, we see heavy rains in Orissa State, with concentrated heavy rain in the Sambhalpur-Rourkela belt.Southwards towards Balangir we see heavy rains. The rain belt stretches along the coast into Coastal W.Bengal. Kolkata gets increased rainfall on Monday.
Tuesday, as BB-4 moves inland, we see precipitation in the Vidharbh and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra. Nagpur,Gondia, Khamgaon and Akola regions get heavy showers.
By Tuesday evening, rainfall moving into adjoining MP, with Ujjain region and the Indore -Itarsi belt getting heavy rains.
Rains move into Eastern Gujarat also.
Wednesday, precipitation seen in Eastern Gujarat region.But the eastern quadrant of the system brings rainfall to the Western MP region, especially the Itarsi-Indore belt. Adjoining Kota in Rajasthan can possibly get rains also.
Along the west coast we see an increase in precipitation Northwards of Goa from Monday night.
Mumbai could see some increase in rain intensity from Monday night and thru Tuesday, the frequency of rain showers will increase.But moderate, as stations along Coastal Karnataka and Konkan average between 20-40 mms/day for next 3 days.
Likewise, Pune will see more cloudy overcast conditions from Monday or Tuesday with increase in rain frequency on Tuesday.
Light rains/Thunder showers creeping into the Delhi NCR on Tuesday with around 10 mms expected. But Wednesday (an Upper Air trough takes position) could see a heavy thunder shower in some parts, with up to 25-30 mms. May break again, depending on the axis.
The Monsoon axis could possibily shift North from Thursday...But we will wait and watch the BB-4 final movements.
Uttarakhand will get showers on Monday and more heavy showers after 27th June. We presume the axis shifts Northwards.
Nepal can get excessive rains if this happens.
Hot and dry for Sindh and Southern Pakistan. Hottest spots reaching 47c...Sukkur may touch 45c and Karachi hot and dry at 35 (Heat Index 40c !)
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